The Time and Timing of UK Domestic Energy DEMAND

Invited keynote to the excellent Otago Energy Research Centre Symposium 2014.

Work supported by: http://www.demand.ac.uk/

Citation: Anderson, B. (2014) The Time and Timing of UK Domestic Energy DEMAND. Keynote paper presented at the 2014 Otago Energy Research Centre Symposium, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand, 28/11/2014.

Transcript

1. The Time and Timing of UK Domestic Energy DEMAND Otago Energy Research Centre Symposium 2014 Ben Anderson b.anderson@soton.ac.uk (@dataknut) Sustainable Energy Research Group, University of Southampton DEMAND End User Energy Demand Research Centre
2. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 The Menu 2 •  What’s the problem •  Examples: •  ‘Peaks’ •  ‘Evolving Demand’ •  Lessons learnt •  Next Steps
3. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 What’s the problem? !  We need to know what drives domestic energy demand 3 Demand (consumption) Re- configuration Modeling and forecasting demand (reduction) Planning infrastructure Targeting interventions
4. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Why? !  Domestic demand for electricity is particularly uneven… !  Infrastructure problems: !  Network ‘import’ overload on weekday evenings; !  Network ‘export’ overload at mid- day on weekdays due to under-used PV generation; !  Inefficient use of resources (night- time trough) !  Carbon problems: !  Peak load can demand ‘dirty’ generation 4 UK Housing Energy Fact File Graph 7a: HES average 24-hour electricity use profile for owner-occupied homes, England 2010-11 Gas consumption The amount of gas consumed in the UK varies dramatically between households. The top 10% of households consume at least four times as much gas as the bottom 10%.60 Modelling  to  predict  households’  energy   consumption – based on the property, household income and tenure – has so far been able to explain less than 40% of this variation. Households with especially high or low consumption do not have particular behaviours that make them easy to identify. Instead they tend to have a cluster of very ordinary behaviours that happen to culminate in high or low Gas use varies enormously from household to household, and the variation has more to do with behaviour than how dwellings are built. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Heating Water heating Electric showers Washing/drying Cooking Lighting Cold appliances ICT Audiovisual Other Unknown Watts !  Cost problems: !  Peak generation is higher priced energy
5. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Why? !  Domestic demand for electricity is particularly uneven… !  Infrastructure problems: !  Network ‘import’ overload on weekday evenings; !  Network ‘export’ overload at mid- day on weekdays due to under-used PV generation; !  Inefficient use of resources (night- time trough) !  Carbon problems: !  Peak load can demand ‘dirty’ generation 5 UK Housing Energy Fact File Graph 7a: HES average 24-hour electricity use profile for owner-occupied homes, England 2010-11 Gas consumption The amount of gas consumed in the UK varies dramatically between households. The top 10% of households consume at least four times as much gas as the bottom 10%.60 Modelling  to  predict  households’  energy   consumption – based on the property, household income and tenure – has so far been able to explain less than 40% of this variation. Households with especially high or low consumption do not have particular behaviours that make them easy to identify. Instead they tend to have a cluster of very ordinary behaviours that happen to culminate in high or low Gas use varies enormously from household to household, and the variation has more to do with behaviour than how dwellings are built. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Heating Water heating Electric showers Washing/drying Cooking Lighting Cold appliances ICT Audiovisual Other Unknown Watts !  Cost problems: !  Peak generation is higher priced energy Intermittent supply…
6. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 What to do? •  Storage •  Demand Reduction •  Just reducing it per se •  Demand Response •  Shifting it somewhere else in time (or space and time) 6 UK Housing Energy Fact File Graph 7a: HES average 24-hour electricity use profile for owner-occupied homes, England 2010-11 Gas consumption The amount of gas consumed in the UK varies dramatically between households. The top 10% of households consume at least four times as much gas as the bottom 10%.60 Modelling  to  predict  households’  energy   consumption – based on the property, household income and tenure – has so far been able to explain less than 40% of this variation. Households with especially high or low consumption do not have particular behaviours that make them easy to identify. Instead they tend to have a cluster of very ordinary behaviours that happen to culminate in high or low Gas use varies enormously from household to household, and the variation has more to do with behaviour than how dwellings are built. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Heating Water heating Electric showers Washing/drying Cooking Lighting Cold appliances ICT Audiovisual Other Unknown Watts Filling the trough Reducing Peak load This raises crucial questions: •  What do people do during peaks? •  How has this (co)-evolved and what does this imply for shifting? •  How do energy ‘demands’ emerge from these doings (social practices)?
7. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 But there’s another problem… This is an appliance level view •  It tells us very little about what people do in peaks (and troughs) •  And nothing about change over time But time-use diary data might… 7 UK Housing Energy Fact File Graph 7a: HES average 24-hour electricity use profile for owner-occupied homes, England 2010-11 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Heating Water heating Electric showers Washing/drying Cooking Lighting Cold appliances ICT Audiovisual Other Unknown Watts
8. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 The Menu 8 •  What’s the problem? •  Examples: •  ‘Peaks’ •  ‘Evolving Demand’ •  Lessons learnt •  Next Steps
9. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 So what constitutes ‘peak demand’? 9 Source:(ONS(2005(Time(Use(Survey(Data((UK,(weekdays)(%(of(persons(reporCng(
10. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 0%( 10%( 20%( 30%( 40%( 50%( 60%( 70%( 80%( 90%( 16:00( 16:30( 17:00( 17:30( 18:00( 18:30( 19:00( 19:30( 20:00( 20:30( 21:00( 21:30( 22:00( 22:30( 23:00( travel( using(computer( going(out(with(friends/family( reading( watching(tv/listening(to(radio( formal(educaCon( work(for(job( washing(clothes( cleaning( preparing(food( eaCng/drinking( washing/dressing( What is the ‘average’ day? 10 Source:(ONS(2005(Time(Use(Survey(Data((UK)(%(of(persons(reporCng,(half(hour(summaries( Monday( Friday( 0%( 10%( 20%( 30%( 40%( 50%( 60%( 70%( 80%( 90%( 16:00( 16:30( 17:00( 17:30( 18:00( 18:30( 19:00( 19:30( 20:00( 20:30( 21:00( 21:30( 22:00( 22:30( 23:00( travel( using(computer( going(out(with(friends/family( reading( watching(tv/listening(to(radio( formal(educaCon( work(for(job( washing(clothes( cleaning( preparing(food( eaCng/drinking( washing/dressing(
11. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 0%( 10%( 20%( 30%( 40%( 50%( 60%( 70%( 80%( 90%( 16:00( 16:30( 17:00( 17:30( 18:00( 18:30( 19:00( 19:30( 20:00( 20:30( 21:00( 21:30( 22:00( 22:30( 23:00( travel( using(computer( going(out(with(friends/family( reading( watching(tv/listening(to(radio( formal(educaCon( work(for(job( washing(clothes( cleaning( preparing(food( eaCng/drinking( washing/dressing( What is the ‘average’ day? 11 Source:(ONS(2005(Time(Use(Survey(Data((UK)(%(of(persons(reporCng,(half(hour(summaries( Saturday( Sunday( 0%( 10%( 20%( 30%( 40%( 50%( 60%( 70%( 80%( 90%( 16:00( 16:30( 17:00( 17:30( 18:00( 18:30( 19:00( 19:30( 20:00( 20:30( 21:00( 21:30( 22:00( 22:30( 23:00( travel( using(computer( going(out(with(friends/family( reading( watching(tv/listening(to(radio( formal(educaCon( work(for(job( washing(clothes( cleaning( preparing(food( eaCng/drinking( washing/dressing(
12. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 0%( 10%( 20%( 30%( 40%( 50%( 60%( 70%( 80%( 90%( 16:00( 16:30( 17:00( 17:30( 18:00( 18:30( 19:00( 19:30( 20:00( 20:30( 21:00( 21:30( 22:00( 22:30( 23:00( travel( using(computer( going(out(with(friends/family( reading( watching(tv/listening(to(radio( formal(educaCon( work(for(job( washing(clothes( cleaning( preparing(food( eaCng/drinking( washing/dressing( What is the ‘average’ day? 12 Source:(ONS(2005(Time(Use(Survey(Data((UK)(%(of(persons(reporCng,(half(hour(summaries( Saturday( Sunday( 0%( 10%( 20%( 30%( 40%( 50%( 60%( 70%( 80%( 90%( 16:00( 16:30( 17:00( 17:30( 18:00( 18:30( 19:00( 19:30( 20:00( 20:30( 21:00( 21:30( 22:00( 22:30( 23:00( travel( using(computer( going(out(with(friends/family( reading( watching(tv/listening(to(radio( formal(educaCon( work(for(job( washing(clothes( cleaning( preparing(food( eaCng/drinking( washing/dressing( There is no ‘average’ day…
13. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 0%( 10%( 20%( 30%( 40%( 50%( 60%( 70%( 80%( 90%( 16:00( 16:30( 17:00( 17:30( 18:00( 18:30( 19:00( 19:30( 20:00( 20:30( 21:00( 21:30( 22:00( 22:30( 23:00( travel( using(computer( going(out(with(friends/family( reading( watching(tv/listening(to(radio( formal(educaCon( work(for(job( washing(clothes( cleaning( preparing(food( eaCng/drinking( washing/dressing( Whose peak ? – lifestage dimensions 13 Source:(ONS(2005(Time(Use(Survey(Data((UK,(weekdays)(%(of(persons(reporCng,(half(hour(summaries( hSp://www.demand.ac.uk/09/11/2014/databyteUpeakUdinner/( ( 16U64((weekdays)( 65+((weekdays)( 0%( 10%( 20%( 30%( 40%( 50%( 60%( 70%( 80%( 90%( 16:00( 16:30( 17:00( 17:30( 18:00( 18:30( 19:00( 19:30( 20:00( 20:30( 21:00( 21:30( 22:00( 22:30( 23:00( travel( using(computer( going(out(with(friends/family( reading( watching(tv/listening(to(radio( formal(educaCon( work(for(job( washing(clothes( cleaning( preparing(food( eaCng/drinking( washing/dressing(
14. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Whose peak ? – individual differences 14 Source:(ONS(2000(Time(Use(Survey(Data((UK,(all(individuals) ( Analysis(by(Giulio(MaYoli((@giulio_maYoli)(using(VisualUTimePAcTS((Ellegård(et(al,(2010) ( hSp://www.demand.ac.uk/13/03/2014/visualisingUsequencesUofUdemand/( ( X(axis(ordered(by(age(within(day ( 04:00(–(07:00 ( 13:00(–(16:00 ( 01:00(–(04:00 ( 19:00(–(22:00 ( 07:00(–(10:00 ( 10:00(–(13:00 ( 16:00(–(19:00 ( 22:00(–(01:00 ( •  Green: ‘care for oneself’/ sleep •  Light blue: ‘care for others’ •  Pink: ‘house keeping’ •  Purple: ‘recreation’ •  Yellow: ‘transport’ •  Dark blue: ‘procure and prepare food’ •  Red: ‘employed work / school’
15. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Whose peak ? – individual differences 15 Source:(ONS(2000(Time(Use(Survey(Data((UK,(all(individuals) ( Analysis(by(Giulio(MaYoli((@giulio_maYoli)(using(VisualUTimePAcTS((Ellegård(et(al,(2010) ( hSp://www.demand.ac.uk/13/03/2014/visualisingUsequencesUofUdemand/( ( X(axis(ordered(by(age(within(day ( 04:00(–(07:00 ( 13:00(–(16:00 ( 01:00(–(04:00 ( 19:00(–(22:00 ( 07:00(–(10:00 ( 10:00(–(13:00 ( 16:00(–(19:00 ( 22:00(–(01:00 ( There is no ‘average’ consumer… •  Green: ‘care for oneself’/ sleep •  Light blue: ‘care for others’ •  Pink: ‘house keeping’ •  Purple: ‘recreation’ •  Yellow: ‘transport’ •  Dark blue: ‘procure and prepare food’ •  Red: ‘employed work / school’
16. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 The Menu 16 •  What’s the problem? •  Examples: •  ‘Peaks’ •  ‘Evolving Demand’ •  Summary •  Next Steps
17. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Evolving demand – change is normal 17 9. Chart 4 shows the total amount of electricity consumption by household domestic appliances between 1970 and 2011, which illustrates its steady growth of around 1.7 per cent per year over this period. Chart 4: Electricity consumption by household domestic appliance, by broad type, UK, 1970 to 2011 Source: DECC, ECUK Table 3.10 10. In 2011, consumer electronics were the largest consuming domestic appliances group with an estimated consumption of 1,839 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent, followed by wet appliances with an estimated consumption of 1,271 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent and cold appliances with an estimated consumption of 1,192 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent. 11. Between 1970 and 2011, electricity consumption from consumer electronics 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011 Thousand tonnes of oil equivalent Light Cold Wet Consumer electronics Home computing Cooking Use of electricity by appliance type Owen. 2006. The rise of the machines— a review of energy using products in the home from the 1970s to today., Energy Saving Trust, London.
18. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 UK Evolving demand: Laundry 18 Laundry ‘Shiftable’ ‘Controllable’ ‘Discretionary’ ‘Necessary’ Routinised? Gendered •  UK Laundry 1974-2005
19. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Problem: What is laundry? 19
20. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Problem: What is laundry? 20 Interpret with care…
21. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 The evolution of laundry I 21 % of recorded laundry as primary or secondary activity Source: Multinational Time Use Survey Dataset (UK, 1974-2005, all 18+) 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% 00:00 01:30 03:00 04:30 06:00 07:30 09:00 10:30 12:00 13:30 15:00 16:30 18:00 19:30 21:00 22:30 Monday 2005 1987 1974 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% 00:00 01:30 03:00 04:30 06:00 07:30 09:00 10:30 12:00 13:30 15:00 16:30 18:00 19:30 21:00 22:30 Tuesday 2005 1987 1974
22. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% 00:00 01:30 03:00 04:30 06:00 07:30 09:00 10:30 12:00 13:30 15:00 16:30 18:00 19:30 21:00 22:30 Friday 2005 1987 1974 The evolution of laundry II 22 % of recorded laundry as primary or secondary activity Source: Multinational Time Use Survey Dataset (UK, 1974-2005, all 18+) 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% 00:00 01:30 03:00 04:30 06:00 07:30 09:00 10:30 12:00 13:30 15:00 16:30 18:00 19:30 21:00 22:30 Saturday 2005 1987 1974
23. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 The evolution of laundry III 23 Source: Multinational Time Use Survey Dataset (UK, 1974-2005, all 18+) 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% 00:00 01:30 03:00 04:30 06:00 07:30 09:00 10:30 12:00 13:30 15:00 16:30 18:00 19:30 21:00 22:30 Sunday 2005 1987 1974 -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 00:00 01:30 03:00 04:30 06:00 07:30 09:00 10:30 12:00 13:30 15:00 16:30 18:00 19:30 21:00 22:30 Saturday Friday Thursday Wednesday Tuesday Monday Sunday % of recorded laundry as primary or secondary activity % point difference in recorded laundry 1974-2005
24. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Why? 24 Source: Multinational Time Use Survey Dataset (UK, 1974-2005, all 18+) % of recorded laundry as primary or secondary activity 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday % of all 'laundry' recorded 1974 Men 1974 Women 2005 Men 2005 Women
25. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 The Menu 25 •  What’s the problem? •  Examples: •  ‘Peaks’ •  ‘Evolving Demand’ •  Summary •  Next Steps
26. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Lessons learnt !  If: !  energy ‘demands’ are emergent from co-evolving infrastructures and what people do (social practices) then !  We can see that: !  a range of factors affect how these demands emerge and how they are synchronised to produce ‘peaks’. !  Data implications: !  Average ‘days’, ‘customers’ and ‘appliance profiles’ won’t do !  Modeling implications: !  Microsimulation, rather than ‘average types’, is needed to preserve heterogeneity !  Policy implications: !  Non-energy energy policy !  E.g. working hours & schedules influence the time & timing of demand 26
27. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Next Steps !  Epidemiology of practices? !  Which kinds of people are ‘infected’ by similar energy-demanding social practices? !  When and how did they spread? !  Do sequences matter? !  Which sequences of practices are implicated in peak demand? !  What happens if they are disrupted? !  Spatial distributions? !  Do estimated spatial distributions match to known local (LV) network problems? !  Can we microsimulate demand response scenarios at local levels? 27
28. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Thank you !  Ben Anderson !  b.anderson@soton.ac.uk !  @dataknut !  github.com/dataknut !  www.energy.soton.ac.uk !  www.demand.ac.uk 28