Upgrade to Pro — share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …

The Art of Being Wrong

Dave Rupert
October 27, 2015

The Art of Being Wrong

Closing Keynote delivered to CSS Dev Conf. An epic conference aboard the Queen Mary in Long Beach California.

This talk is more or less the summation of 6 months worth of nights and evenings pondering web design and community.

I'll try to explain not-so-obvious things here:

BORG UX: What if we're the 1st Gen Borg. A connected species that can disseminate information (and mis-information) immediately? What does that mean when we posture our language with fake facts.

Alan Alda something something killed dinosaurs.

Hitler

The Donald Trump Effect: Why is it the loudest, most persistent, and most brazen voices are considered "correct"? This is actually something Hitler talked about.

The man pointing at the map is Robert McNamara. A very data-driven man. You can learn more about that in the documentary "The Fog of War" https://archive.org/details/TheFogOfWarElevenLessonsFromTheLifeOfRobertS.Mcnamara - He helped fight Nazis using data. He also was blinded by data during the Vietnam War, which led to a senseless loss of life.

My feelings on the Hurk-Jerk of Critical Path Rendering http://daverupert.com/2015/10/on-hurk-jerk/

Turds.

I heard Cap Watkins on Developer Tea say (paraphrasing) "My blog is a documentation of my thoughts." I really liked that. https://www.developertea.com/episodes/17553

Jeremy Keith isn't talking to Cap Watkins, he's quoting the Incredible Hulk.

"Well Actually..." was a slide where I talked about our Industry's insatiable desire to be right and how it affects gender diversity in our industry. Women speakers I know have been chastised after their talks about anything and everything. Even facts that they know to be true. It's a ridiculous unconscious bias.

It's okay to let people be wrong. Just let them be wrong. Try it out. Seriously. Let them. No big deal. Life will go on.

Let's have better discussions not pundit opinions.

THE END.

Dave Rupert

October 27, 2015
Tweet

More Decks by Dave Rupert

Other Decks in Technology

Transcript

  1. Dave Rupert @davatron5000
    THE ART OF
    BEING WRONG

    View Slide

  2. View Slide

  3. http://shoptalkshow.com

    View Slide

  4. http://godaytrip.com

    View Slide

  5. THE EXTRAORDINARY
    PRESSURE OF BEING RIGHT

    View Slide

  6. HTML CSS
    JavaScript

    View Slide

  7. HTML CSS JS Accessibility SVG
    Web
    Animation API
    CSS
    Animations
    SVG
    Animations
    Typography React Radium
    Pattern
    Libraries
    Web
    Components
    Container
    Queries
    RWD Fractals WebPerf
    Data
    Visualization
    Regression
    Testing
    CSS
    Architecture
    Level 4
    Selectors
    Bower Open Source SMACSS
    Sass Grunt GSAP
    Continuous
    Integration
    TDD Flexbox

    View Slide

  8. …AND THAT’S JUST STUFF
    FROM THIS CONFERENCE

    View Slide

  9. “I JUST WANT TO ADD TWO NUMBERS BUT I
    HAVE TO DEAL WITH ALL THESE TAPE REELS.”

    View Slide

  10. BORG UX

    View Slide

  11. What if we’re all
    connected to a giant
    shared source of
    knowledge and what if
    everything in that
    machine isn’t always
    correct?

    View Slide

  12. “FACTS” &
    “MUST DOs”

    View Slide

  13. THIS IDEA MUST DIE

    View Slide

  14. “The idea that things are either true or false should
    possibly take a rest …. I wonder, and this is just a
    modest proposal, if scientific truth should be
    identified in a way that acknowledges that it's
    something we know and understand for now – and
    in a certain way.”
    - Alan Alda

    View Slide

  15. View Slide

  16. View Slide

  17. View Slide

  18. View Slide

  19. View Slide

  20. View Slide

  21. View Slide

  22. THIS IDEA MUST DIE

    View Slide

  23. Sometimes wrong is wrong

    View Slide

  24. BULLSHIT

    View Slide

  25. *ahem*

    View Slide

  26. HUMANS ARE GOOD AT
    DETECTING BULLSHIT.
    93% ACCURACY.

    View Slide

  27. THAT WAS A LIE.
    IT’S MORE LIKE 53%
    SAME AS A COIN TOSS.

    View Slide

  28. The Donald Trump Effect

    View Slide

  29. BALONEY DETECTION KIT

    View Slide

  30. Baloney Detection Kit
    • Wherever possible there must be
    independent confirmation of the facts.
    • Encourage substantive debate on the
    evidence by knowledgeable proponents of
    all points of view.
    • Arguments from authority carry little
    weight.
    • Spin more than one hypothesis
    • Try not to get overly attached to a
    hypothesis just because it's yours.
    • Quantify, wherever possible.
    • If there is a chain of argument every link
    in the chain must work.
    • Occam's razor - if there are two
    hypotheses that explain the data equally
    well choose the simpler.
    • Ask whether the hypothesis can, at least
    in principle, be falsified. In other words, it
    is testable? Can others duplicate the
    experiment and get the same result?

    View Slide

  31. Logical Fallacies
    • Ad hominem
    • Argument from "authority"
    • Argument from adverse consequences
    • Appeal to ignorance
    • Special pleading
    • Begging the question.
    • Observational selection.
    • Statistics of small numbers.
    • Misunderstanding the nature of
    statistics
    • Inconsistency
    • Non sequitur
    • Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
    • Meaningless question
    • Excluded middle
    • Short-term v. long-term
    • Slippery slope
    • Confusion of correlation and causation
    • Caricaturing (or stereotyping) a position
    to make it easier to attack.
    • Suppressed evidence or half-truths.
    • Weasel words

    View Slide

  32. WARNING:
    Playing in the role of In-Person Baloney Detection Kit at a party
    or online doesn’t make you a popular nor does it make you a
    person that people want to actually listen to or be around. Use
    judgement and “social tact” at all times.

    View Slide

  33. “Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it's yours.
    It's only a way station in the pursuit of knowledge. Ask yourself why
    you like the idea. Compare it fairly with the alternatives. See if you
    can find reasons for rejecting it. If you don't, others will.”
    - Carl Sagan’s Baloney Detection Kit from “The Demon Haunted
    World”

    View Slide

  34. How we become wrong

    View Slide

  35. The
    #HOTDRAMA
    Trap

    View Slide

  36. The
    #HOTDRAMA
    Trap

    View Slide

  37. Have a really strong opinion
    about a really niche topic

    View Slide

  38. vs PostCSS
    Sass
    vs SASS
    Sass
    vs SVG Sprites
    Icon Fonts
    vs React Inline Styles
    Cascading Style Sheets
    vs ???
    Hamburger Menus
    vs Any modern web
    development practice
    basically?
    Progressive Enhancement

    View Slide

  39. Strong opinions are great,
    but they can create
    a blind spot

    View Slide

  40. “Discussions are always worth having. Weighing options is
    always interesting. Demonstrating what has worked (and
    what hasn't) for you is always useful. There are ways to
    communicate that don't resort to dogmatism.”
    - Chris Coyier “The Gray Gray Ghost That I Call Home”

    View Slide

  41. “The Gray”

    View Slide

  42. What does the data say?

    View Slide

  43. View Slide

  44. 1. Empathize with your enemy
    2. Rationality will not save us
    3. There's something beyond one's self
    4. Maximize efficiency
    5. Proportionality should be a guideline in war
    6. Get the data
    7. Belief and seeing are often both wrong
    8. Be prepared to re-examine your reasoning
    9. In order to do good, you may have to engage in evil
    10. Never say never
    11. You can't change human nature

    View Slide

  45. McNamara’s Fallacy

    View Slide

  46. The first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK
    as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can't be
    easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is
    artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can't be
    measured easily really isn't important. This is blindness. The fourth step
    is to say that what can't be easily measured really doesn't exist. This is
    suicide.
    — Daniel Yankelovich "Corporate Priorities: A continuing study of the
    new demands on business." (1972)

    View Slide

  47. The first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK
    as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can't be
    easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is
    artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can't be
    measured easily really isn't important. This is blindness. The fourth step
    is to say that what can't be easily measured really doesn't exist. This is
    suicide.
    — Daniel Yankelovich "Corporate Priorities: A continuing study of the
    new demands on business." (1972)

    View Slide

  48. The first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK
    as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can't be
    easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is
    artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can't be
    measured easily really isn't important. This is blindness. The fourth step
    is to say that what can't be easily measured really doesn't exist. This is
    suicide.
    — Daniel Yankelovich "Corporate Priorities: A continuing study of the
    new demands on business." (1972)

    View Slide

  49. The first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK
    as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can't be
    easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is
    artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can't be
    measured easily really isn't important. This is blindness. The fourth step
    is to say that what can't be easily measured really doesn't exist. This is
    suicide.
    — Daniel Yankelovich "Corporate Priorities: A continuing study of the
    new demands on business." (1972)

    View Slide

  50. The first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK
    as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can't be
    easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is
    artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can't be
    measured easily really isn't important. This is blindness. The fourth step
    is to say that what can't be easily measured really doesn't exist. This is
    suicide.
    — Daniel Yankelovich "Corporate Priorities: A continuing study of the
    new demands on business." (1972)

    View Slide

  51. CHASING METRICS

    View Slide

  52. BEHOLD THE PINNACLE OF
    MODERN DAY WEB DESIGN!

    View Slide

  53. View Slide

  54. View Slide

  55. A/B Testing

    View Slide

  56. Good, but…

    View Slide

  57. Compare two turds, user still gets a turd.

    View Slide

  58. INCREASE CONVERSION
    RATE BY 22%

    View Slide

  59. View Slide

  60. CONVERSION DOESN’T
    ALWAYS EQUAL GOOD

    View Slide

  61. Allowing myself and
    others to be wrong

    View Slide

  62. Yes… And…
    My new Open Source philosophy

    View Slide

  63. Blogging
    The ancient art of expressing your feelings

    View Slide

  64. 0
    5
    10
    15
    20
    25
    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 DRAFTS
    DAVERUPERT.COM POSTS BY YEAR
    Posts

    View Slide

  65. View Slide

  66. “That’s my secret, Cap – I’m always publishing.
    (Seriously though; treat your blog as your drafts folder)”
    - Jeremy Keith on Twitter

    View Slide

  67. View Slide

  68. View Slide

  69. Well Actually…

    View Slide

  70. Promote better
    discussions

    View Slide

  71. Parallax is dumb.

    View Slide

  72. I am of the opinion that parallax is dumb.

    View Slide

  73. I am of the opinion that parallax is a waste of time
    and resources in order to achieve an effect that
    users are already immune to and has terrible
    scrolling performance in a multi-device world.

    View Slide

  74. Now we can have a
    discussion!

    View Slide

  75. Go forth and fight Nazis!

    View Slide

  76. Thanks!
    Dave Rupert @davatron5000

    View Slide