Socio-economic, environmental, and mobility conditions associated with crime: A study of multiple cities

Socio-economic, environmental, and mobility conditions associated with crime: A study of multiple cities

In this project we study the relationship between crime and places, people and their mobility. Presentation at ICCS 2018

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Marco De Nadai

July 26, 2018
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  1. Marco De Nadai, Yanyan Xu, Emmanuel Letouzé, Marta C. González,

    Bruno Lepri Socio-economic, environmental, and mobility conditions associated with crime: A study of multiple cities ICCS 2018
  2. 2 Urban population is exploding Gomez-Lievano et al. "Explaining the

    prevalence, scaling and variance of urban phenomena." Nature Human Behaviour (2017)
  3. 3 How can we describe crime? Socio-economic characteristics Built environment

    Mobility
  4. Socio-economic characteristics

  5. The social-disorganization theory Crime is a result of lack of

    cooperation and trust • Economic deprivation • Ethnic heterogeneity • Residential instability 5 Sampson, R. J., et al. (1989). Community structure and crime: Testing social- disorganization theory. American journal of sociology SOCIAL DISORGANIZATION
  6. Bayesian Poisson model 6 Leroux et al. "Estimation of disease

    rates in small areas: a new mixed model for spatial dependence." Statistical models in epidemiology, the environment, and clinical trials. log & = ( * * , *-. + CAR process Auto-correlation matrix Features (e.g. disadvantage) Crime in a district (ground truth) SOCIAL DISORGANIZATION
  7. Social disorganization - Results 7 SOCIAL DISADVANTAGE ETHNIC MIX RESIDENTIAL

    STABILITY THEORY THEORY THEORY
  8. Social disorganization - Results 8 SOCIAL DISADVANTAGE ETHNIC MIX RESIDENTIAL

    STABILITY THEORY THEORY THEORY
  9. Social disorganization - Results 9 SOCIAL DISADVANTAGE ETHNIC MIX RESIDENTIAL

    STABILITY THEORY THEORY THEORY
  10. Social disorganization - Results 10 SOCIAL DISADVANTAGE ETHNIC MIX RESIDENTIAL

    STABILITY THEORY THEORY THEORY
  11. Social disorganization - Results 11 THE SOCIAL DISORGANIZATION IS NOT

    ENOUGH
  12. The built environment

  13. The built environment Jane Jacobs has been one of the

    most influential people in urban planning 13 Jacobs, Jane. The death and life of great American cities. Vintage, 1961 BUILT ENVIRONMENT
  14. The built environment Jane Jacobs has been one of the

    most influential people in urban planning 14 Jacobs, Jane. The death and life of great American cities. Vintage, 1961 Informal surveillance: Guardianship by ordinary citizen, and police BUILT ENVIRONMENT
  15. The built environment Four essential conditions: 1. Land use mix

    15 Land use mix Jacobs, Jane. The death and life of great American cities. Vintage, 1961 BUILT ENVIRONMENT
  16. The built environment Four essential conditions: 1. Land use mix

    2. Small blocks 16 Small blocks Jacobs, Jane. The death and life of great American cities. Vintage, 1961 BUILT ENVIRONMENT
  17. The built environment Four essential conditions: 1. Land use mix

    2. Small blocks 3. Aged buildings 17 Aged buildings Jacobs, Jane. The death and life of great American cities. Vintage, 1961 BUILT ENVIRONMENT
  18. The built environment Four essential conditions: 1. Land use mix

    2. Small blocks 3. Aged buildings 4. Density 18 Density Jacobs, Jane. The death and life of great American cities. Vintage, 1961 BUILT ENVIRONMENT
  19. The built environment Four essential conditions: 1. Land use mix

    2. Small blocks 3. Aged buildings 4. Density 19 De Nadai, Marco, et al. "The death and life of great Italian cities: a mobile phone data perspective." WWW, 2016. OpenStreetMap + census! BUILT ENVIRONMENT
  20. Bayesian Poisson model 20 log & = ( * *

    , *-. + CAR process Spatial matrix Features (e.g. land use mix) Crime in a district (ground truth) De Nadai, Marco, et al. "The death and life of great Italian cities: a mobile phone data perspective." WWW, 2016.
  21. 21 Built environment – Results (errors) Model Bogota Boston Los

    Angeles Social disorganization 163 374 356 Built environment 109 352 317
  22. 22 Built environment – Results (errors) Model Bogota Boston Los

    Angeles Social disorganization 163 374 356 Built environment (+ Social disorganization) 109 (104) 352 (205) 317 (333)
  23. 23 Built environment – Results (errors) Model Bogota Boston Los

    Angeles Social disorganization 163 374 356 Built environment (+ Social disorganization) 109 (104) 352 (205) 317 (333) CRIME ESTIMATION FROM URBAN DATA
  24. 24 Built environment - Discrepancies Small blocks Just an example…

  25. 25 Built environment - Discrepancies THE PLACE IS NOT ENOUGH

    Just an example…
  26. Mobility

  27. Mobility 27 Graif, Corina et al. "Neighborhood isolation in Chicago:

    Violent crime effects on structural isolation and homophily in inter-neighborhood commuting networks." Social networks 51 (2017) • People are everyday exposed to different conditions and places • Poorly connected neighborhoods weaken cooperation • Mobility affects crime MOBILITY
  28. Mobility 28 Digitalization of our life => mobile phone data

    Jiang, Shan, et al. "The TimeGeo modeling framework for urban mobility without travel surveys." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113.37 (2016) MOBILITY
  29. Bayesian Poisson model 29 O/D NETWORK C B A 34

    21 90 MOBILITY
  30. Bayesian Poisson model 30 LOW HIGH POPULATION O/D NETWORK C

    B A 34 21 90 MOBILITY
  31. Bayesian Poisson model 31 LOW HIGH POPULATION O/D NETWORK log

    & = ( * * , *-. + Crime in a district (ground truth) C B A 34 21 90 MOBILITY
  32. Results (errors) 32 Model Bogota Boston Los Angeles Social disorganization

    163 374 356 Built environment 109 352 317 Mobility 141 310 280
  33. Results (errors) 33 Model Bogota Boston Los Angeles Social disorganization

    163 374 356 Built environment 109 352 317 Mobility 141 310 280 Full model 82 267 240 PLACE + PEOPLE + DYNAMISM
  34. 34 How can we describe crime? Socio-economic characteristics Built environment

    Mobility
  35. 35 How can we describe crime? Socio-economic characteristics Built environment

    Mobility ✓ Precise data ✓ Availability ✓ Unbiased (population) ✗ Rarely updated ✗ Availability ✗ Bias over volunteers ✗ Availability
  36. 36 How can we describe crime? Socio-economic characteristics Built environment

    Mobility ALL BLOCKS TOGETHER BETTER DESCRIBE CRIME THEORY HAS DISCREPANCIES OVER DIFFERENT CITIES
  37. 37 How can we describe crime? New theory

  38. Feedback time! @denadai2