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Testing an urban theory

Testing an urban theory

Slides for the lecture "Testing an urban theory" @ University of Trento

Marco De Nadai

October 22, 2019
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  1. Testing an urban theory
    Marco De Nadai (http://www.marcodena.it)

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  2. 72
    Cities have always been studied
    IDEAL CITY
    (XV century)

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  3. 73
    Cities have always been studied
    IDEAL CITY
    (XV century)
    SYSTEM
    (XIX century)

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  4. 74
    Cities have always been studied
    IDEAL CITY
    (XV century)
    SYSTEM
    (XIX century)
    LIVING ORGANISM
    (XX century)

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  5. 75
    Understand cities
    New methods
    New data

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  6. How can we test an urban theory?
    76
    1
    Take the
    theory
    “Operationalize”
    the theory
    Does it work?
    Is it still valid?
    Why does it
    matter?
    2 3 4

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  7. 77
    Follow or silence please!
    How to test an urban
    theory
    1
    How to lose time
    http://curvefever.io/
    2

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  8. Take the theory
    STEP 1

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  9. The theory: Jane Jacobs
    One of the most influential books in
    city planning
    • planning models that dominated
    mid-century planning
    • American housing policy (HOPE VI)
    • Melbourne, Toronto etc.
    79
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST
    Klemek, C. (2011) ‘Dead or Alive at Fifty? Reading Jane Jacobs on
    her Golden Anniversary’ Dissent, Vol. 58, No. 2, 75–79.

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  10. The theory: not tested!
    • Not empirically tested until 2015
    • Tested in Seoul, from costly surveys
    collected in years
    • Theory from 1961!
    80
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST
    Sung, Hyungun, Sugie Lee, and SangHyun Cheon. "Operationalizing Jane
    Jacobs’s Urban Design Theory Empirical Verification from the Great City of
    Seoul, Korea." Journal of Planning Education and Research (2015.

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  11. The theory: Jane Jacobs
    One of the most influential books in
    city planning
    • Death: caused by the elimination
    of pedestrian activity
    • Life: created by a vital urban fabric
    at all times of the day
    81
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST

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  12. Jacobs’ diversity conditions
    Diversity => Urban vitality
    There are 4 diversity conditions
    To be ensured in each city’s district
    (10,000+ inhabitants)
    82
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST
    SMALL
    BLOCKS
    LAND USE
    AGED
    BUILDINGS
    DENSITY

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  13. Land Use Mix
    2+ primary uses (contemporarily)
    JACOBS’ VIEW: People come for different
    purposes, continuously
    EFFECT: “sidewalk ballet” and “eyes on
    the street”
    83
    LAND USE
    SMALL
    BLOCKS
    AGED
    BUILDINGS
    DENSITY
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST

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  14. Small blocks
    City blocks should be small/short
    LAND USE
    SMALL
    BLOCKS
    84
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST
    AGED
    BUILDINGS
    DENSITY
    JACOBS’ VIEW: improves walkability
    EFFECT: Increase face-to-face interactions

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  15. Aged buildings
    Buildings mixed (age and types)
    85
    AGED
    BUILDINGS
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST
    LAND USE
    DENSITY
    SMALL
    BLOCKS
    JACOBS’ VIEW: To ensure economic
    diversity
    EFFECT: high-/low-income residents
    new/small enterprises

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  16. Density
    Concentration of people and enterprises
    JACOBS’ VIEW: People have a reason
    to live in a district
    EFFECT: Attract people
    86
    SMALL
    BLOCKS
    DENSITY
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST
    LAND USE
    AGED
    BUILDINGS

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  17. Necessary, diversity conditions
    All four factors are necessary
    87
    LAND USE
    SMALL
    BLOCKS
    AGED
    BUILDINGS
    DENSITY
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST

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  18. Border Vacuums
    • Patches of land dedicated to one
    single use
    • They could be either bad and good:
    • Parks are good for pedestrian activity
    • But they are exposed to criminality and
    deprivation if not well managed (e.g. night)
    88
    LAND USE
    SMALL
    BLOCKS
    AGED
    BUILDINGS
    DENSITY
    VACUUMS
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST

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  19. “Operationalize” the theory
    STEP 2

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  20. The data:
    90
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2

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  21. The data:
    91
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2
    Get the data at: https://developer.foursquare.com/

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  22. The data:
    92
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2

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  23. The data:
    93
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2

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  24. The data:
    94
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2
    Get the data at: https://overpass-turbo.eu/

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  25. The data:
    95
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2

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  26. The data:
    96
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2
    • Urban Atlas: https://land.copernicus.eu/local/urban-
    atlas/urban-atlas-2012

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  27. The data:
    97
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2
    • ISTAT (Census): https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/104317

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  28. 98
    2
    1 3 4
    URBAN DESCRIPTION
    GIS data
    Does it work?
    Is it still valid?
    3
    “Operationalize” the theory

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  29. “Operationalize” Land Use Mix
    For district :
    %
    = − (
    )∈+
    %,)
    log(%,)
    )
    log ||
    %,): % square footage of land use
    : {residential, commercial, recreation}
    99
    LAND USE
    SMALL
    BLOCKS
    AGED
    BUILDINGS
    DENSITY
    VACUUMS
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2
    Ref: R. Cervero. Land-use mixing and suburban mobility. University of California Transportation
    Center, 1989
    EFFECT: The higher, the better.
    1
    0

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  30. 100
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2

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  31. 101
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2

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  32. 102
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2

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  33. “Operationalize” Small blocks
    Block size is a proxy for an high number
    of peoples’ interactions
    For district :
    1
    | |
    (
    =∈=>?@AB(%)
    ()
    EFFECT: The lower, the better
    103
    LAND USE
    SMALL
    BLOCKS
    AGED
    BUILDINGS
    DENSITY
    VACUUMS
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2

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  34. 104
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2

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  35. 105
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2

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  36. Aged buildings
    Aged buildings are supposed to be a
    proxy for new, small enterprises.
    For district :
    1
    |%
    |
    (
    )∈GH

    %
    : set of companies
    EFFECT: The higher, the worse
    106
    LAND USE
    SMALL
    BLOCKS
    AGED
    BUILDINGS
    DENSITY
    VACUUMS
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2

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  37. Aged buildings
    For district the weighted standard
    deviation of buildings age.
    EFFECT: The higher, the better
    107
    LAND USE
    SMALL
    BLOCKS
    AGED
    BUILDINGS
    DENSITY
    VACUUMS
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2
    MNO
    = ∑HQR
    S TH(UHV ̅
    U)X
    Y
    (Z[R)
    Z
    ∑HQR
    S TH

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  38. 108
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2

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  39. 109
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2

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  40. “Operationalize” Density
    For district :
    Employment density:
    |\]^>?_O` ^O?^>OH|
    MaOMH
    Population density:
    |b?^c>Md%?eH|
    MaOMH
    EFFECT: The higher, the better
    110
    LAND USE
    SMALL
    BLOCKS
    AGED
    BUILDINGS
    DENSITY
    VACUUMS
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2

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  41. 111
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2

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  42. “Operationalize” Vacuums
    Distance to huge parks for district :
    1
    %
    (
    )∈gH
    ( , , )
    %
    : the set of the blocks
    : the set of parks
    EFFECT: The higher, the better
    112
    LAND USE
    SMALL
    BLOCKS
    AGED
    BUILDINGS
    DENSITY
    VACUUMS
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2

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  43. 113
    1 3 4
    THEORY TEST 2

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  44. Diversity Vitality

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  45. Call Detail Records
    Data collected by mobile operators for billing
    reasons
    • Unique userID
    • Gender and age
    • Geographical location (Antenna)
    • Datetime
    115
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST

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  46. Call Detail Records
    116
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST

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  47. “Operationalize” Vitality
    • Mobile phone Internet activity as a proxy for
    urban vitality
    • We calculate the activity density in each
    district
    1
    ||
    (
    l∈m
    | %
    |
    : set of hours (180 days x 24h)
    • Six Italian cities with 100,000+ inhabitants
    (e.g. Rome, Milan…)
    • 6 months time span (in 2014)
    117
    0.2
    0.0
    0.2
    0.4
    0.6
    0.8
    1.0
    Land Use Mix
    0.8 1.2 1.8 2.7 4.1 6.1 9.3 14.0 21.1 31.9
    Activity density ⇥ 103
    ROME
    MILAN
    0.8 1.2 1.8 2.7 4.1 6.1 9.3 14.0 21.1 31.9
    Activity density 103
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST
    MILAN

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  48. 118
    2
    1 3 4
    URBAN DESCRIPTION
    Mobile data
    GIS data
    Does it work?
    Is it still valid?
    3
    “Operationalize” the theory

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  49. Demo 1
    https://github.com/denadai2/test-the-
    theory-
    lesson/blob/master/step1_compute_fe
    atures.ipynb
    119

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  50. Is the theory still valid?
    STEP 3

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  51. −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
    −9
    −8
    −7
    −6
    −5
    −4
    −3
    −2
    .
    Is the theory still valid?
    121
    Intersections density (log + Z-score)
    Activity density
    (log)
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST

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  52. −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
    −9
    −8
    −7
    −6
    −5
    −4
    −3
    −2
    Is the theory still valid?
    122
    Intersections density (log + Z-score)
    Activity density
    (log)
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST

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  53. −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
    −9
    −8
    −7
    −6
    −5
    −4
    −3
    −2
    R2 : 0.63
    Is the theory still valid?
    123
    Intersections density (log + Z-score)
    Activity density
    (log)
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST

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  54. Demo 2
    https://github.com/denadai2/test-the-
    theory-
    lesson/blob/master/step2_exploration.
    ipynb
    124

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  55. The log Linear Regression
    125
    = p
    p
    + s
    s
    + ⋯ + su
    su
    +
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST

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  56. The log Linear Regression
    126
    Activity density
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST
    = p
    p
    + s
    s
    + ⋯ + su
    su
    +

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  57. The log Linear Regression
    127
    Activity density
    Land Use Mix
    Employment density
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST
    = p
    p
    + s
    s
    + ⋯ + su
    su
    +

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  58. Demo 3
    http://setosa.io/ev/ordinary-least-
    squares-regression/ and
    https://github.com/denadai2/test-the-
    theory-
    lesson/blob/master/step3_Regression.i
    pynb
    128

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  59. Jacobs’ theory holds and is still valid
    129
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST
    Urban metric Beta coefficient
    Employment density 0.434***
    Intersections density 0.191***
    Housing types 0.1854***
    Closeness highways -0.102***
    3rd places x closeness highways 0.07**
    Closeness parks x closeness highways -0.07***
    − 0.77
    *** p-value < 0.001; ** p-value < 0.01;
    4-fold Cross-validation: 75% training – 25% testing, 1000 interactions

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  60. Jacobs’ theory holds and is still valid
    130
    URBAN
    VITALITY
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST
    URBAN
    METRICS
    Predict
    s: 0.77

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  61. …But something is different
    131
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST
    LAND USE
    SMALL
    BLOCKS
    AGED
    BUILDINGS
    DENSITY
    VACUUMS

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  62. Why does it matter?
    STEP 4

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  63. Web data and mobile phone records
    offer insights on how most urban
    dwellers experience entire cities
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST

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  64. Why does it matter?
    • Evaluate the districts vitality
    • Know in advance the best places for retails
    • Quantifying regulatory interventions
    • We created the recipe for city that works
    134
    1 2 3 4
    THEORY TEST

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  65. Let’s test an urban theory
    135
    1
    The Jacobs’
    theory
    We created
    the metrics
    We tested
    the theory
    Framework
    for urban vitality
    2 3 4

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  66. Test the un-tested
    And now?

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  67. Broken windows theory
    • City mismanagement
    • Dirty places
    • Poor infrastructure
    Lead to misbehavior => Crime
    Q: Are people avoiding places where they
    feel unsafe?
    137
    Wilson, James Q., and George L. Kelling. "Broken windows."
    Critical issues in policing: Contemporary readings (1982): 395-
    407.

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  68. 138
    Urban perception from Place Pulse
    Salesses, P., Schechtner, K., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2013). The collaborative image of the city: mapping the inequality of urban
    perception. PloS one

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  69. 139

    1
    5
    Place Pulse
    • New York
    • Boston
    • Linz
    • Salzburg
    Place Pulse 2
    • Rome
    • Milan
    URBAN PERCEPTION
    Safety perception: MIT Place Pulse

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  70. 140
    Security perception prediction
    * B. Zhou, A. Lapedriza, J. Xiao, A. Torralba, and A. Oliva. “Learning Deep Features for Scene
    Recognition using Places Database.” NIPS, 2014.
    • Learning human security perception
    PERCEPTION
    SCORE
    [0-10]

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  71. Demo 4
    https://github.com/denadai2/test-the-
    theory-
    lesson/blob/master/step_extra_vision.i
    pynb
    141

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  72. 142
    Urban metric Standardized Beta coefficient
    Population density 0.155**
    Employees density 0.328**
    Deprivation -0.022
    Distance from the center -0.257**
    Security perception 0.105**
    adj − Rs 0.91
    ** p-value < 0.001; * p-value < 0.01;
    Security perception -> presence of people

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  73. Take home
    Try to test your favorite theory!
    143

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  74. Thanks
    @denadai2

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