Stripe 82 p(X|⇥) = N Y ↵ =1 [(1 P var )p const (X↵ |⇥) + P var p var (X↵ |⇥)] p const ⌘ M Y i =1 [(1 P bad )p good + P bad p bad ] p var ⌘ M Y i =1 [(1 P bad )p var , good + P bad p bad ] Stars Runs Runs p good ⌘ N(Ci↵ |f0 i f⇤ ↵ , 2 i↵ + 2 i↵ ) “Constant & Good” p var , good ⌘ N(Ci↵ |f0 i f⇤ ↵ , 2 i↵ + 2 i↵ + ⌃2 var ) “Variable & Good” pbad ⌘ N(Ci↵ |f0 i f⇤ ↵ , 2 i↵ + 2 i↵ + ⌃2 bad ) “Bad” Npars = Nstars + Nruns + 6 ⇥ = {~ f0,~ f⇤, , ⌘, ⌃2 var , Pvar, ⌃2 bad , Pbad }