FUTURE’S HORIZON

FUTURE’S HORIZON

This is a chapter of the "Histoire du Futur (Future's history) classe.
The full presentation is available here : https://speakerdeck.com/futurimmediat/histoire-du-futur-futures-history-in-en

Content of this chapter :
Exponentiality
Exponential history
3d industrial revolution
Abundance but (this is the story of a man falling from the 50t floor)

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Futur Immédiat

July 15, 2020
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Transcript

  1. 109 FUTURE’S HORIZON Future’s shock, exponentially & VUCA

  2. 110 Source : Duval union RELEASE DATE : 1970 THE

    FUTURE SHOCK* IS HAPPENING NOW! The trauma that results of going trough great changes in a short period of time
  3. 111 EXPONENTIALITY

  4. 0,01 2 3 4 10 20 0,3€ LINEAR

  5. 0,01 2 3 4 10 10k€ 10 m€ EXPONENTIAL

  6. Source: Ray Kurzweil, “The singularity is near: when humans transcend

    biology”, p.67, The Viking Press, 2006. Datapoints between 2000 and 2012 represent BCA estimates ELECTROMECHANICAL SOLID STATE RELAY TRANSISTOR INTEGRATED CIRCUIT VACUUM TUBE 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 OPTICAL, QUANTUM, DNA COMPUTING HUMAN BRAIN MOUSE BRAIN 0 104 108 1012 1016 10-4 CORE I7 QUAD PENTIUM APPLE II ALTAIR 8800 UNVAC I COLOSSUS IBM TABULATOR ANALYTICAL ENGINE CALCULATIONS PER SECOND PER $1000 EXPONENTIALITY
  7. 115 EXPONENTIALITY 4Kb Vs 17 Kb

  8. EXPONENTIALITY Storage capacity doubles every 18 months Computer power Storage

    KRYDER’S LAW (STORAGE)
  9. 117 KRYDER’S LAW 1956 : 5MB 2005 : 128MB 2014

    : 128GB 24 000 000 $/GB 772 $/GB 1,2 $/GB
  10. 118 KRYDER’S LAW 1956 : 5MB 2005 : 128MB 2014

    : 128GB 24 000 000 $/GB 772 $/GB 1,2 $/GB 10 TRILLION FOLD IMPROVEMENTS
  11. Bandwidth grows at least three times faster than computer power

    Computer power Bandwidth EXPONENTIALITY GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)
  12. 120 DIAL UP ADSL BROADBAND SUPER BROADBAND DATE SPEED EXPONENTIALITY

    GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)
  13. EXPONENTIALITY GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)

  14. EXPONENTIALITY GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)

  15. EXPONENTIALITY GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)

  16. EXPONENTIALITY GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)

  17. 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2002 2004 1992

    1999 Cell Cost $/Watt Cumulative Installations, MWp 100 1 K 10 K 100 K 1 M 1 B $ 0.10 $ 10 $ 1 EXPONENTIALITY SWANSON’S LAW (SOLAR ENERGY COST)
  18. $10K $100K $1M $10M $100M $1K 2001 2005 2010 2015

    Moore’s Law EXPONENTIALITY COST PER GENOME
  19. EXPONENTIALITY Mid 90’s : 2.7 B$

  20. EXPONENTIALITY 2017 : 99 $

  21. Q1:97 Q1:01 Q1:05 Q1:09 Q1:13 25 50 0 Global PC

    (Desktop/Notebook) and Tablet Shipments by Quarter Q1:95– Q1:13 Desktop PCs Notebook PCs Tablets EXPONENTIALITY
  22. 130 EXPONENTIALITY

  23. EXPONENTIALITY

  24. IBM AN/FSQ-7 – 1958 Whirlwind I – 1951 UNIVAC 1101

    - 1950 EXPONENTIALITY 50’s BUILDING SIZE COMPUTERS
  25. CDC6600 - 1964 HP 2116A - 1966 DDP-116 i -

    1965 EXPONENTIALITY 60’s ROOM SIZE COMPUTERS
  26. XEROX Parc - 1974 Apple I - 1976 Apple II

    - 1977 EXPONENTIALITY 70’s DESK SIZE COMPUTERS (PIONEERS)
  27. Commodore VIC-20 - 1980 IBM pc - 1982 Apple Mac

    - 1984 EXPONENTIALITY 80’s DESK SIZE COMPUTERS (MATURITY)
  28. Apple Mac portable - 1989 Apple PowerBook - 1991 IBM

    Thinkpad - 1995 EXPONENTIALITY 90’s LAP SIZE COMPUTERS
  29. Apple iPhone - 2007 Amazon Kindle - 2007 Apple iPad

    - 2009 EXPONENTIALITY 00’s HAND SIZE COMPUTERS
  30. Nest thermostat - 2011 Raspberry pie (25$) - 2012 Apple

    Watch - 2015 EXPONENTIALITY 10’s WRIST SIZE COMPUTERS
  31. EXPONENTIALITY 20’s CELL SIZE COMPUTERS?

  32. Global digital information created and shared each year - zettabytes

    2 4 6 8 0 2005 2010 2015 Zettabytes 1 Zettabyte 1 000 Exabytes 1 000 000 Petabytes 1 000 000 000 Terabytes 1 000 000 000 000 Gigabytes 1/1 000 Yottabyte 1/1 000 000 Brontobyte 1 000 000 000 000 000 Megabytes EXPONENTIALITY
  33. 1900 Knowledge doubling every century 1945 Knowledge doubling every 25

    years 1982 Knowledge doubling every 12-13 months 2020 IBM predicts knowledge doubling every 11-12 hours Source : https://steemit.com/philosophy/@rsguardian/limitless-alih9vcs0x EXPONENTIALITY
  34. EXPONENTIALITY

  35. WORLD GDP OVER THE LAST TWO MILLENNIA Total output of

    the world economy; adjusted for inflation and expressed in 2011 international dollars. $20 trillion $40 trillion $60 trillion $80 trillion $100 trillion $0 1 2015 1500 1000 500 Source: World GDP – Our World In Data based on World Bank & Maddison (2017) GDP
  36. SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRENDS (1750-2010) EARTH SYSTEM TRENDS (1750-2010) Real GDP World

    Population Foreign Direct Investment Nitrous Oxide Carbon Dioxide Methane Primary energy use Urban population Fertilizer consumption Surface temperature Stratospheric ozone Ocean acidification Water use Large dams Paper production Shrimp aquaculture Marine fish capture Coastal nitrogen Tele- communications Transportation International tourism Domesticated land Tropical forest loss Terrestrial biosphere degradation EXPONENTIALITY
  37. 145 ? Biology Culture Technology EXPONENTIALITY

  38. ACCELERATION OF THE ACCELERATION We are here

  39. MATRIX OF KNOWLEDGE

  40. 148 FRAGMENTATION

  41. IMPREDICTIBILITY

  42. 150 IMPREDICTIBILITY

  43. IMPREDICTIBILITY

  44. IMPREDICTIBILITY

  45. IMPREDICTIBILITY

  46. IMPREDICTIBILITY

  47. IMPREDICTIBILITY

  48. 156 IMPREDICTIBILITY

  49. 157 MITIGATION

  50. 158 LAWS OF PHYSIC

  51. AMARA’S LAW “we tend to overestimate the effect of a

    technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
  52. AMARA’S LAW “we tend to overestimate the e ect of

    a technology in the short run and underestimate the e ect in the long run.”
  53. 161

  54. EVOLUTION Physiological needs Security needs Social needs Self esteem Meaning

  55. 163 EXPONENTIAL HISTORY

  56. 164 ? Biology Culture Technology MANKIND’S 3 WAVES

  57. 165 12 000 YEARS AGRICULTURE WRITTING PRINTING STEAM OVER 12

    000 years
  58. 1st INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION 1784

  59. 1913 2d INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

  60. 168 3D INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION The digital age 1969

  61. 169 THE DIGITAL AGE INTERNET SOCIAL MOBILE CLOUD COMPUTER

  62. 170 ECONOMY 3.0

  63. DIGITAL DARWNISM “The evolution of customer behaviour when society &

    technology evolve faster than one’s ability to adapt” Brian Solis
  64. 1995 + 2005 + 2015 + Music Photography Video Rental

    Print Media Tv Travel Retail Automotive Education Healthcare Banking/insurance 2020 All niches & safe markets will be subject to digital disruption 1995+ 2005+ 2015+ 2020 Music Photography Video rental Print media TV Travel Retail Automotive Education Healthcare Banking/Insurance All niches & safe markets will be subject to digital disruption Source : Duval Union EVERYWHERE From immaterial to material to everywhere
  65. Kodak valuation decline DIGITAL DARWINISM

  66. 1976 : Near to monopolistic situation 1990 : One of

    the most valuable brand in the world 1991 : Introduce the 1st digital camera 2000 : Main sponsor of Olympic Games choose to promote celluloid film (more money on short term) 2003 : People starts to take pictures with mobile phones 2007 : The iPhone is released 2012 : Bankruptcy 2015 : Announce release of selfie sticks KODAKISATION
  67. NOT UNIQUE

  68. CREATIVE DESTRUCTION

  69. THE NETWORK ECONOMY

  70. PLATFORMS The world’s largest taxi company, owns no vehicles The

    world’s most popular media owner, creates no content The most valuable retailer, has no inventory The world’s largest accommodation provider, owns no real estate
  71. WINNER TAKES ALL

  72. Ranked by n° of active users (01/2017) WINNER TAKES ALL

  73. Ranked by n° of active users (01/2017) WINNER TAKES ALL

  74. COMPETING WITH HOTELS using an ecosystem Source: PLATFORM THINKING Copyright

    © 2015 Sangeet Paul Choudary, Geoffrey Parker and Marshall Van Alstyne
  75. 183 NEW WINNERS

  76. 184 NEW WINNERS

  77. 185 NEW WINNERS

  78. GAFA ARE COMPETITORS

  79. GAFA want to spread the internet Access is a strategical

    business enabler for GAFA and GAFA alike … Not a business model GAFA ARE COMPETITORS
  80. GAFA ARE PARTNERS

  81. More info on Gafa GAFA ARE PARTNERS

  82. 190 Baïdu Tecent Xiomi Alibaba NEW WINNERS

  83. 30,8 24 EXPECT THEM

  84. 30,8 B$ 24 H Nov 2018 EXPECT THEM

  85. 256 K Sec Nov 2017 transactions EXPECT THEM

  86. 90% Nov 2017 Mobile EXPECT THEM

  87. 195 THE DATA ECONOMY

  88. ABUNDANCE OF DATA

  89. GLOBAL REACH

  90. 198 “WHEN INFORMATION IS FREE, ATTENTION IS EXPENSIVE” James Gleick

    ATTENTION ECONOMY
  91. Source : Tristan Harris (TED)

  92. SIMPLE.COM ATTENTION ECOLOGY

  93. “In the digital space We earn it, we spend it”

    BRIAN SOLIS ATTENTION IS A CURRENCY
  94. THE USER CENTRIC ERA

  95. THE EXPERIENCE ECONOMY

  96. Commoditisation COMMODITISATION2

  97. EXPERIENCE ECONOMY $ 6.00 $ 5.00 $ 4.00 $ 3.00

    $ 2.00 $ 1.00 Commodities Goods Services Experiences café en vrac Paquet de café café
  98. TRANSFORMATION ECONOMY

  99. TRANSFORMATION ECONOMY

  100. Source : NIKE ADS

  101. THE PURPOSE ECONOMY

  102. BRAND ACTIVISM Source : adweek FROM MARKETING TO MATTERING

  103. BRAND ACTIVISM

  104. 212 A NEW WORLD 33% Future: installation in progress

  105. NEWS VS FACTS Hans Rosling

  106. If it bleeds, it leads Popular expression

  107. 215 SHOCK THERAPY

  108. 216 BIASES

  109. 217 “The children now love luxury; they have bad manners,

    contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love cha er in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, cha er before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannise their teachers.” BIASES
  110. 218 ― Socrates “The children now love luxury; they have

    bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love cha er in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, cha er before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.” BIASES
  111. 219 The NEGATIVITY instinct: forge ing how the world really

    was before. It is not because some things are bad today that they cannot be be er than they were before! BIASES
  112. x BIASES

  113. 221 The STRAIGHT LINE instinct: the danger of extrapolating from

    a known variable. There are straight lines of course, but more o en lines are curved or S-shaped; this is the case in demographics, for instance. BIASES
  114. The FEAR instinct: some of our ancestral fears, justified at

    the time when we lived in caves, still haunt us today even though the situation has radically changed. And we have a tendency to grossly exaggerate modern threats such as terrorism, compared to other causes of death. BIASES
  115. 223 The SIZE instinct: the tendency to look at individual

    figures without pu ing them in perspective. There are more than four million infant deaths (for 141 million births) per year in the world today, which is staggering and shocking. But in 1950 the number was 14.5 million for 97 million births. We also tend to look at individual victims and forget about the many victims who do not make it on to our TV screens. BIASES
  116. 224 The GENERALISATION instinct: we divide the world into 'them'

    and 'us' and then think of the people in these groups as all being the same. BIASES
  117. 225 The DESTINY instinct: best summed up by the phrase

    "things never change". BIASES
  118. 226 The SINGLE PERSPECTIVE instinct: thinking that all problems have

    a single cause. BIASES
  119. 227 The BLAME instinct (could also be called the 'conspiracy

    instinct'): it is always intellectually easier to find culprits rather than real causes. BIASES
  120. The URGENCY instinct: pushing people to rush for solutions that

    are "simple, straigh orward and… wrong" BIASES
  121. Every day ... 305.000 new people have access to clean

    water 295.000 new people have access to electricity 620.000 new people have access to internet Source : Hans Rosling via Dear Media “It’s still bad, but it getting better” Hans Rosling
  122. 230 NEWS VS FACTS Life expectancy -100 years Today Literacy

    rate Democraties Poverty 51 y 32% 16 82% 71 y 85% 123 9%
  123. FAMINE

  124. 232 PRODUCTIVITY $20 trillion $40 trillion $60 trillion $80 trillion

    $100 trillion $0 1 2015 1500 1000 500 Source: World GDP – Our World In Data based on World Bank & Maddison (2017)
  125. THE LONG PEACE

  126. 234 POPULATION

  127. WARNING

  128. WARNING WARS IMPROVING FOR 8 YEARS

  129. WARNING FAMINE IMPROVING FOR 3 YEARS

  130. WARNING COVID-19 : WORLD FAMINE COULD DOUBLE IN 2020

  131. DECLINE OF EXTREME POVERTY IS SLOWING DOWN WARNING

  132. WARNING VS 12.5% 87.5% ATOM 2 ATOM

  133. 241 WARNING ANTHROPOCENE

  134. WARNING ANTHROPOCENE

  135. 243 COLLAPSE

  136. 244 FUTURE SPECTRUM

  137. 245 Optimist Pessimist Entrepreneurship / Private centric Institutional centric Abundance

    Scarcity FUTURISTS THE FUTURES’ GAP
  138. “We wanted flying cars, we got 140 characters” Peter Thiel

  139. 4th INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION 2020 - 2050 100% Future : installation

    completed
  140. TECH TSUNAMI IOT AI 3D ROBOTICS BIOTECHS NANO APIs BLOCKCHAIN

    AUTONOMOUS VEHICULES DRONES RENEWABLES SPACE QUANTUM COMPUTING NEXT 20-40 YEARS THE ACCELERATION OF ACCELERATION
  141. ENABLERS

  142. DIGITAL ENABLERS

  143. DIGITAL ENABLERS INTERNET OF EVERYTHING

  144. BLOCKCHAIN

  145. VIRTUAL REALITY

  146. AUGMENTED REALITY

  147. AUGMENTED REALITY

  148. AUGMENTED REALITY

  149. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

  150. AI

  151. AI ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE NARROW GENERAL SUPER

  152. AI ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

  153. 10 building blocks of AI COGNITION SENSORY PERCEPTION MACHINE LEARNING

    DEEP LEARNING IMAGE ANALYSIS NATURAL LANGUAGE GENERATION NATURAL LANGUAGE PROCESSING SPEECH RECOGNITION ROBOTICS KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING NARROW AI
  154. DEEPMIND : AUTOML Alphago zero AI

  155. NARROW SPAM, recommandations, marketing automation AI

  156. AI NARROW Translation, natural language

  157. Google duplex AI NARROW

  158. AI NARROW Disease detection

  159. PHYSICAL ENABLERS

  160. 3D PRINTING

  161. ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING

  162. CONSTRUCTION EVERYWHERE

  163. EVERYWHERE HEALTH

  164. Source : Media Mice EVERYWHERE HEALTH

  165. EVERYWHERE CONSTRUCTION

  166. EVERYWHERE SPACE

  167. RENEWABLES ENERGIES

  168. RENEWABLES 8000 TIMES OUR CURRENT NEEDS

  169. David Mackay Source : RENEWABLES CURRENT LIMITATIONS

  170. QUANTUM TECHNOLOGIES

  171. QUANTUM COMPUTING

  172. QUANTUM CRYPTOGRAPHY

  173. ROBOTICS Source : Wired

  174. ROBOTICS Boston dynamics Boston dynamics INDUSTRIAL, MILITARY

  175. Mine Kafon DRONES

  176. Rwanda blood delivery DRONES

  177. Read the full article View the video ROBOTICS KILLER ROBOTS

  178. Source : theri .eu SPACE THE SECOND SPACE AGE

  179. SPACE MOON

  180. 34 missions planned in the next decade 10 manned missions

    24 robotic missions 4 private missions SPACE MOON
  181. SPACE MARS

  182. SPACE MARS

  183. Source : Peter Diamandis SPACE MINING & INDUSTRY

  184. NANOTECHNOLOGIES “There is plenty of room at the bottom” Richard

    Feynman
  185. NANOTECHNOLOGIES MED BOTS & DRUGS

  186. NANOTECHNOLOGIES NANO MATERIALS

  187. 250 stronger than steel Lighter than paper NANOTECHNOLOGIES GRAPHENE

  188. BIOLOGICAL ENABLERS

  189. CRISP 2.0 can change a signe Nuclotide 32000 out of

    50000 diseases are caused by a single-point mutations BIOLOGICAL ENABLERS CRIPSR 2.0
  190. BIOLOGICAL ENABLERS CURE, PREVENT, AUGMENT

  191. BIO TECHNOLOGIES

  192. NEW REALITY

  193. SEAMLESS & UBIQUITOUS

  194. ONE PHYGITAL WORLD

  195. SHAZAM EVERYTHING

  196. THE SIGNAL AGE OPEN & BIG DATA DATA INTEGRATED AI

  197. INTERNETS

  198. AND/OR INTERNETS

  199. AUTOMATED WORLD

  200. STORES PRODUCTS PACKAGING JOURNEYS MASS PERSONALISATION

  201. ZERO MARGINAL COST

  202. ZERO MARGINAL COST Source : Singularity university

  203. 311 ASSISTANT THE LAST APP

  204. CENTAUR CENTRIC

  205. MaaC

  206. MARKETING 4.0 Of advertising ? Sensor economy MaaC (MX?)

  207. EDUCATION 4.0

  208. HEALTHCARE 4.0

  209. EARTHSHIP THE AGE OF LIMITS

  210. 318 POLLUTION

  211. UNEXPECTED CLIMATIC EVENTS

  212. 320 THE END OF (CHEAP) OIL

  213. OTHER PEAKS

  214. OTHER PEAKS

  215. OTHER PEAKS

  216. 324 ECONOMICAL SHIFT

  217. SECTORS’ BIG BANG?