FUTURE’S HORIZON

This is a chapter of the "Histoire du Futur (Future's history) classe.
The full presentation is available here : https://speakerdeck.com/futurimmediat/histoire-du-futur-futures-history-in-en

Content of this chapter :
Exponentiality
Exponential history
3d industrial revolution
Abundance but (this is the story of a man falling from the 50t floor)

Transcript

1. 109 FUTURE’S HORIZON Future’s shock, exponentially & VUCA
2. 110 Source : Duval union RELEASE DATE : 1970 THE FUTURE SHOCK* IS HAPPENING NOW! The trauma that results of going trough great changes in a short period of time
3. 111 EXPONENTIALITY
4. 0,01 2 3 4 10 20 0,3€ LINEAR
5. 0,01 2 3 4 10 10k€ 10 m€ EXPONENTIAL
6. Source: Ray Kurzweil, “The singularity is near: when humans transcend biology”, p.67, The Viking Press, 2006. Datapoints between 2000 and 2012 represent BCA estimates ELECTROMECHANICAL SOLID STATE RELAY TRANSISTOR INTEGRATED CIRCUIT VACUUM TUBE 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 OPTICAL, QUANTUM, DNA COMPUTING HUMAN BRAIN MOUSE BRAIN 0 104 108 1012 1016 10-4 CORE I7 QUAD PENTIUM APPLE II ALTAIR 8800 UNVAC I COLOSSUS IBM TABULATOR ANALYTICAL ENGINE CALCULATIONS PER SECOND PER $1000 EXPONENTIALITY
7. 115 EXPONENTIALITY 4Kb Vs 17 Kb
8. EXPONENTIALITY Storage capacity doubles every 18 months Computer power Storage KRYDER’S LAW (STORAGE)
9. 117 KRYDER’S LAW 1956 : 5MB 2005 : 128MB 2014 : 128GB 24 000 000 $/GB 772 $/GB 1,2 $/GB
10. 118 KRYDER’S LAW 1956 : 5MB 2005 : 128MB 2014 : 128GB 24 000 000 $/GB 772 $/GB 1,2 $/GB 10 TRILLION FOLD IMPROVEMENTS
11. Bandwidth grows at least three times faster than computer power Computer power Bandwidth EXPONENTIALITY GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)
12. 120 DIAL UP ADSL BROADBAND SUPER BROADBAND DATE SPEED EXPONENTIALITY GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)
13. EXPONENTIALITY GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)
14. EXPONENTIALITY GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)
15. EXPONENTIALITY GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)
16. EXPONENTIALITY GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)
17. 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2002 2004 1992 1999 Cell Cost $/Watt Cumulative Installations, MWp 100 1 K 10 K 100 K 1 M 1 B $ 0.10 $ 10 $ 1 EXPONENTIALITY SWANSON’S LAW (SOLAR ENERGY COST)
18. $10K $100K $1M $10M $100M $1K 2001 2005 2010 2015 Moore’s Law EXPONENTIALITY COST PER GENOME
19. EXPONENTIALITY Mid 90’s : 2.7 B$
20. EXPONENTIALITY 2017 : 99 $
21. Q1:97 Q1:01 Q1:05 Q1:09 Q1:13 25 50 0 Global PC (Desktop/Notebook) and Tablet Shipments by Quarter Q1:95– Q1:13 Desktop PCs Notebook PCs Tablets EXPONENTIALITY
22. 130 EXPONENTIALITY
23. EXPONENTIALITY
24. IBM AN/FSQ-7 – 1958 Whirlwind I – 1951 UNIVAC 1101 - 1950 EXPONENTIALITY 50’s BUILDING SIZE COMPUTERS
25. CDC6600 - 1964 HP 2116A - 1966 DDP-116 i - 1965 EXPONENTIALITY 60’s ROOM SIZE COMPUTERS
26. XEROX Parc - 1974 Apple I - 1976 Apple II - 1977 EXPONENTIALITY 70’s DESK SIZE COMPUTERS (PIONEERS)
27. Commodore VIC-20 - 1980 IBM pc - 1982 Apple Mac - 1984 EXPONENTIALITY 80’s DESK SIZE COMPUTERS (MATURITY)
28. Apple Mac portable - 1989 Apple PowerBook - 1991 IBM Thinkpad - 1995 EXPONENTIALITY 90’s LAP SIZE COMPUTERS
29. Apple iPhone - 2007 Amazon Kindle - 2007 Apple iPad - 2009 EXPONENTIALITY 00’s HAND SIZE COMPUTERS
30. Nest thermostat - 2011 Raspberry pie (25$) - 2012 Apple Watch - 2015 EXPONENTIALITY 10’s WRIST SIZE COMPUTERS
31. EXPONENTIALITY 20’s CELL SIZE COMPUTERS?
32. Global digital information created and shared each year - zettabytes 2 4 6 8 0 2005 2010 2015 Zettabytes 1 Zettabyte 1 000 Exabytes 1 000 000 Petabytes 1 000 000 000 Terabytes 1 000 000 000 000 Gigabytes 1/1 000 Yottabyte 1/1 000 000 Brontobyte 1 000 000 000 000 000 Megabytes EXPONENTIALITY
33. 1900 Knowledge doubling every century 1945 Knowledge doubling every 25 years 1982 Knowledge doubling every 12-13 months 2020 IBM predicts knowledge doubling every 11-12 hours Source : https://steemit.com/philosophy/@rsguardian/limitless-alih9vcs0x EXPONENTIALITY
34. EXPONENTIALITY
35. WORLD GDP OVER THE LAST TWO MILLENNIA Total output of the world economy; adjusted for inflation and expressed in 2011 international dollars. $20 trillion $40 trillion $60 trillion $80 trillion $100 trillion $0 1 2015 1500 1000 500 Source: World GDP – Our World In Data based on World Bank & Maddison (2017) GDP
36. SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRENDS (1750-2010) EARTH SYSTEM TRENDS (1750-2010) Real GDP World Population Foreign Direct Investment Nitrous Oxide Carbon Dioxide Methane Primary energy use Urban population Fertilizer consumption Surface temperature Stratospheric ozone Ocean acidification Water use Large dams Paper production Shrimp aquaculture Marine fish capture Coastal nitrogen Tele- communications Transportation International tourism Domesticated land Tropical forest loss Terrestrial biosphere degradation EXPONENTIALITY
37. 145 ? Biology Culture Technology EXPONENTIALITY
38. ACCELERATION OF THE ACCELERATION We are here
39. MATRIX OF KNOWLEDGE
40. 148 FRAGMENTATION
41. IMPREDICTIBILITY
42. 150 IMPREDICTIBILITY
43. IMPREDICTIBILITY
44. IMPREDICTIBILITY
45. IMPREDICTIBILITY
46. IMPREDICTIBILITY
47. IMPREDICTIBILITY
48. 156 IMPREDICTIBILITY
49. 157 MITIGATION
50. 158 LAWS OF PHYSIC
51. AMARA’S LAW “we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
52. AMARA’S LAW “we tend to overestimate the e ect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the e ect in the long run.”
54. EVOLUTION Physiological needs Security needs Social needs Self esteem Meaning
55. 163 EXPONENTIAL HISTORY
56. 164 ? Biology Culture Technology MANKIND’S 3 WAVES
57. 165 12 000 YEARS AGRICULTURE WRITTING PRINTING STEAM OVER 12 000 years
58. 1st INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION 1784
59. 1913 2d INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
60. 168 3D INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION The digital age 1969
61. 169 THE DIGITAL AGE INTERNET SOCIAL MOBILE CLOUD COMPUTER
62. 170 ECONOMY 3.0
63. DIGITAL DARWNISM “The evolution of customer behaviour when society & technology evolve faster than one’s ability to adapt” Brian Solis
64. 1995 + 2005 + 2015 + Music Photography Video Rental Print Media Tv Travel Retail Automotive Education Healthcare Banking/insurance 2020 All niches & safe markets will be subject to digital disruption 1995+ 2005+ 2015+ 2020 Music Photography Video rental Print media TV Travel Retail Automotive Education Healthcare Banking/Insurance All niches & safe markets will be subject to digital disruption Source : Duval Union EVERYWHERE From immaterial to material to everywhere
65. Kodak valuation decline DIGITAL DARWINISM
66. 1976 : Near to monopolistic situation 1990 : One of the most valuable brand in the world 1991 : Introduce the 1st digital camera 2000 : Main sponsor of Olympic Games choose to promote celluloid film (more money on short term) 2003 : People starts to take pictures with mobile phones 2007 : The iPhone is released 2012 : Bankruptcy 2015 : Announce release of selfie sticks KODAKISATION
67. NOT UNIQUE
68. CREATIVE DESTRUCTION
69. THE NETWORK ECONOMY
70. PLATFORMS The world’s largest taxi company, owns no vehicles The world’s most popular media owner, creates no content The most valuable retailer, has no inventory The world’s largest accommodation provider, owns no real estate
71. WINNER TAKES ALL
72. Ranked by n° of active users (01/2017) WINNER TAKES ALL
73. Ranked by n° of active users (01/2017) WINNER TAKES ALL
74. COMPETING WITH HOTELS using an ecosystem Source: PLATFORM THINKING Copyright © 2015 Sangeet Paul Choudary, Geoffrey Parker and Marshall Van Alstyne
75. 183 NEW WINNERS
76. 184 NEW WINNERS
77. 185 NEW WINNERS
78. GAFA ARE COMPETITORS
79. GAFA want to spread the internet Access is a strategical business enabler for GAFA and GAFA alike … Not a business model GAFA ARE COMPETITORS
80. GAFA ARE PARTNERS
81. More info on Gafa GAFA ARE PARTNERS
82. 190 Baïdu Tecent Xiomi Alibaba NEW WINNERS
83. 30,8 24 EXPECT THEM
84. 30,8 B$ 24 H Nov 2018 EXPECT THEM
85. 256 K Sec Nov 2017 transactions EXPECT THEM
86. 90% Nov 2017 Mobile EXPECT THEM
87. 195 THE DATA ECONOMY
88. ABUNDANCE OF DATA
89. GLOBAL REACH
90. 198 “WHEN INFORMATION IS FREE, ATTENTION IS EXPENSIVE” James Gleick ATTENTION ECONOMY
91. Source : Tristan Harris (TED)
92. SIMPLE.COM ATTENTION ECOLOGY
93. “In the digital space We earn it, we spend it” BRIAN SOLIS ATTENTION IS A CURRENCY
94. THE USER CENTRIC ERA
95. THE EXPERIENCE ECONOMY
96. Commoditisation COMMODITISATION2
97. EXPERIENCE ECONOMY $ 6.00 $ 5.00 $ 4.00 $ 3.00 $ 2.00 $ 1.00 Commodities Goods Services Experiences café en vrac Paquet de café café
98. TRANSFORMATION ECONOMY
99. TRANSFORMATION ECONOMY
100. Source : NIKE ADS
101. THE PURPOSE ECONOMY
102. BRAND ACTIVISM Source : adweek FROM MARKETING TO MATTERING
103. BRAND ACTIVISM
104. 212 A NEW WORLD 33% Future: installation in progress
105. NEWS VS FACTS Hans Rosling
106. If it bleeds, it leads Popular expression
107. 215 SHOCK THERAPY
108. 216 BIASES
109. 217 “The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love cha er in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, cha er before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannise their teachers.” BIASES
110. 218 ― Socrates “The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love cha er in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, cha er before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.” BIASES
111. 219 The NEGATIVITY instinct: forge ing how the world really was before. It is not because some things are bad today that they cannot be be er than they were before! BIASES
112. x BIASES
113. 221 The STRAIGHT LINE instinct: the danger of extrapolating from a known variable. There are straight lines of course, but more o en lines are curved or S-shaped; this is the case in demographics, for instance. BIASES
114. The FEAR instinct: some of our ancestral fears, justified at the time when we lived in caves, still haunt us today even though the situation has radically changed. And we have a tendency to grossly exaggerate modern threats such as terrorism, compared to other causes of death. BIASES
115. 223 The SIZE instinct: the tendency to look at individual figures without pu ing them in perspective. There are more than four million infant deaths (for 141 million births) per year in the world today, which is staggering and shocking. But in 1950 the number was 14.5 million for 97 million births. We also tend to look at individual victims and forget about the many victims who do not make it on to our TV screens. BIASES
116. 224 The GENERALISATION instinct: we divide the world into 'them' and 'us' and then think of the people in these groups as all being the same. BIASES
117. 225 The DESTINY instinct: best summed up by the phrase "things never change". BIASES
118. 226 The SINGLE PERSPECTIVE instinct: thinking that all problems have a single cause. BIASES
119. 227 The BLAME instinct (could also be called the 'conspiracy instinct'): it is always intellectually easier to find culprits rather than real causes. BIASES
120. The URGENCY instinct: pushing people to rush for solutions that are "simple, straigh orward and… wrong" BIASES
121. Every day ... 305.000 new people have access to clean water 295.000 new people have access to electricity 620.000 new people have access to internet Source : Hans Rosling via Dear Media “It’s still bad, but it getting better” Hans Rosling
122. 230 NEWS VS FACTS Life expectancy -100 years Today Literacy rate Democraties Poverty 51 y 32% 16 82% 71 y 85% 123 9%
123. FAMINE
124. 232 PRODUCTIVITY $20 trillion $40 trillion $60 trillion $80 trillion $100 trillion $0 1 2015 1500 1000 500 Source: World GDP – Our World In Data based on World Bank & Maddison (2017)
125. THE LONG PEACE
126. 234 POPULATION
127. WARNING
128. WARNING WARS IMPROVING FOR 8 YEARS
129. WARNING FAMINE IMPROVING FOR 3 YEARS
130. WARNING COVID-19 : WORLD FAMINE COULD DOUBLE IN 2020
131. DECLINE OF EXTREME POVERTY IS SLOWING DOWN WARNING
132. WARNING VS 12.5% 87.5% ATOM 2 ATOM
133. 241 WARNING ANTHROPOCENE
134. WARNING ANTHROPOCENE
135. 243 COLLAPSE
136. 244 FUTURE SPECTRUM
137. 245 Optimist Pessimist Entrepreneurship / Private centric Institutional centric Abundance Scarcity FUTURISTS THE FUTURES’ GAP
138. “We wanted flying cars, we got 140 characters” Peter Thiel
139. 4th INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION 2020 - 2050 100% Future : installation completed
140. TECH TSUNAMI IOT AI 3D ROBOTICS BIOTECHS NANO APIs BLOCKCHAIN AUTONOMOUS VEHICULES DRONES RENEWABLES SPACE QUANTUM COMPUTING NEXT 20-40 YEARS THE ACCELERATION OF ACCELERATION
141. ENABLERS
142. DIGITAL ENABLERS
143. DIGITAL ENABLERS INTERNET OF EVERYTHING
144. BLOCKCHAIN
145. VIRTUAL REALITY
146. AUGMENTED REALITY
147. AUGMENTED REALITY
148. AUGMENTED REALITY
149. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
150. AI
151. AI ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE NARROW GENERAL SUPER
152. AI ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
153. 10 building blocks of AI COGNITION SENSORY PERCEPTION MACHINE LEARNING DEEP LEARNING IMAGE ANALYSIS NATURAL LANGUAGE GENERATION NATURAL LANGUAGE PROCESSING SPEECH RECOGNITION ROBOTICS KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING NARROW AI
154. DEEPMIND : AUTOML Alphago zero AI
155. NARROW SPAM, recommandations, marketing automation AI
156. AI NARROW Translation, natural language
157. Google duplex AI NARROW
158. AI NARROW Disease detection
159. PHYSICAL ENABLERS
160. 3D PRINTING
161. ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING
162. CONSTRUCTION EVERYWHERE
163. EVERYWHERE HEALTH
164. Source : Media Mice EVERYWHERE HEALTH
165. EVERYWHERE CONSTRUCTION
166. EVERYWHERE SPACE
167. RENEWABLES ENERGIES
168. RENEWABLES 8000 TIMES OUR CURRENT NEEDS
169. David Mackay Source : RENEWABLES CURRENT LIMITATIONS
170. QUANTUM TECHNOLOGIES
171. QUANTUM COMPUTING
172. QUANTUM CRYPTOGRAPHY
173. ROBOTICS Source : Wired
174. ROBOTICS Boston dynamics Boston dynamics INDUSTRIAL, MILITARY
175. Mine Kafon DRONES
176. Rwanda blood delivery DRONES
177. Read the full article View the video ROBOTICS KILLER ROBOTS
178. Source : theri .eu SPACE THE SECOND SPACE AGE
179. SPACE MOON
180. 34 missions planned in the next decade 10 manned missions 24 robotic missions 4 private missions SPACE MOON
181. SPACE MARS
182. SPACE MARS
183. Source : Peter Diamandis SPACE MINING & INDUSTRY
184. NANOTECHNOLOGIES “There is plenty of room at the bottom” Richard Feynman
185. NANOTECHNOLOGIES MED BOTS & DRUGS
186. NANOTECHNOLOGIES NANO MATERIALS
187. 250 stronger than steel Lighter than paper NANOTECHNOLOGIES GRAPHENE
188. BIOLOGICAL ENABLERS
189. CRISP 2.0 can change a signe Nuclotide 32000 out of 50000 diseases are caused by a single-point mutations BIOLOGICAL ENABLERS CRIPSR 2.0
190. BIOLOGICAL ENABLERS CURE, PREVENT, AUGMENT
191. BIO TECHNOLOGIES
192. NEW REALITY
193. SEAMLESS & UBIQUITOUS
194. ONE PHYGITAL WORLD
195. SHAZAM EVERYTHING
196. THE SIGNAL AGE OPEN & BIG DATA DATA INTEGRATED AI
197. INTERNETS
198. AND/OR INTERNETS
199. AUTOMATED WORLD
200. STORES PRODUCTS PACKAGING JOURNEYS MASS PERSONALISATION
201. ZERO MARGINAL COST
202. ZERO MARGINAL COST Source : Singularity university
203. 311 ASSISTANT THE LAST APP
204. CENTAUR CENTRIC
205. MaaC
206. MARKETING 4.0 Of advertising ? Sensor economy MaaC (MX?)
207. EDUCATION 4.0
208. HEALTHCARE 4.0
209. EARTHSHIP THE AGE OF LIMITS
210. 318 POLLUTION
211. UNEXPECTED CLIMATIC EVENTS
212. 320 THE END OF (CHEAP) OIL
213. OTHER PEAKS
214. OTHER PEAKS
215. OTHER PEAKS
216. 324 ECONOMICAL SHIFT
217. SECTORS’ BIG BANG?