Energy Education in European Perspective: A Major Priority to Support the Energy Transitio - Distinguished Professor André Faaij

Energy Education in European Perspective: A Major Priority to Support the Energy Transitio - Distinguished Professor André Faaij

Transcript

1. Energy education in European perspective: a major priority to support the energy transition 2018 International Forum on Energy Eduation, Tainan – Taiwan, 7th December , 2018. Prof. Dr. André P.C. Faaij Distinguished Professor Energy System Analysis – University of Groningen Director of Science, ECN part of TNO
2. Update on the global context; the IPCC 1,5 oC report and implications for the energy transition. 2
3. The IPCC 1,5 oC report: emission pathways 3
4. IPCC 1,5 oC report: Illustrative pathways according to different actors & modelling frameworks 4
5. Historical and projected global energy investments (IPCC, 1,5 oC report) 5
6. The costs of the (global) energy system transition; IPCC wording: • Costs of CO2: estimates for a Below-1.5˚C pathway range from: • 135–5500 USD2010 tCO2-eq in 2030 • 245–13000 USD2010 tCO2-eq in 2050 • 420–17500 USD2010 tCO2-eq in 2070 • 690–27000 USD2010 tCO2-eq in 2100 • Models that encompass a higher degree of technology granularity and more flexibility in mitigation technology portfolio, often produce relatively lower mitigation costs. • Ranges explained by: methodologies, projected energy service demands, mitigation targets, fuel prices and technology availability. The characteristics of the technology portfolio, particularly in terms of investment costs and deployment rates play a key role. 6
7. Advanced energy scenario’s for Europe; competing / balancing options... 7
8. Key developments on energy demand • Demand (total km) in transport increases by 27% (2015 – 2050) in private transport, 20% for buses and almost 40% for heavy-duty, aviation 80-100% increase. • private transport reduces its energy demand by almost 60% (7900 to 3400 PJ) in large part due to electric vehicles, which have 60% share of the market, while the rest is due to the use of more efficient cars. • Industrial output increases ~20%, combined with 5 to 17% reduction of energy demand by 2050. This signals the widespread use of more efficient options. • Demand for space heating in the residential sector decreases by 30-40% (insulation). The 40% reduction in demand of the residential sector is also achieved through a shift in energy carrier to electricity, which has almost 75% share across the main scenarios, nearly eliminating gas use (reduction of 90- 95% vs. 2015) [Blanco et al., applied Energy 2018]
9. Key drivers and barriers energy scenario’s (focus on PtoG…) CO2 target (2050) 228 Mton/y 914 Mton/y VRE penetration (%) 97% 0% 450 Mton/year 60% CO2 storage 0 Gton 255 Gton Biomass potential 25.5 EJ/y 10 EJ/y 7 EJ/y PtM Capex 250 €/kW 75 €/kW PtM Efficiency 85 % 100% LMG efficiency in ships 25 gCO2 /tnm 12 gCO2 /tnm 18-20 gCO2 /tnm [Blanco et al., applied Energy 2018]
10. • "Optimistic" PtoG scenario *All values in PJ Other dimensions are: • Costs (prices) • Time slices • Countries PtG > 75% of gas demand ~ 600 GW of capacity [Blanco et al., applied Energy 2018]
11. • "Alternative" PtoG scenario *All values in PJ PtG 0% of gas demand ~ 0 GW of capacity [Blanco et al., applied Energy 2018]
12. 1 2 North sea energy transition…
13. Build up wind off-shore capacity
14. 14 Cumulative offshore wind capacity North Sea region [Wehrman, CLEW, 2018]
15. o Annually, the Netherlands use 120 TWh electricity and emit 210 Mt CO2 o Electricity potential doubles this consumption o Dutch EEZ CO2 capacity in depleted gas and oil fields equals 13 years Technical potential North Sea Dutch EEZ Offshore wind 2,765 TWh/yr 240 TWh/yr Wave 77 TWh/yr 5 TWh/yr Algae 400 (37,000) PJ/yr 90 (2,800)/yr CO2 storage capacity 20 (125) Gt CO2 1.3 (2.3) Gt CO2 O&G extraction 137 EJ 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Electricity (TWh/yr) Electricity N-Sea Wind Wave Capacity Generated 2016 0 5 10 15 20 CO2 (Gt) CO2 storage in O&G fields in N-Sea UK Norway NL Germany Denmark Belgium Emitted 2016 Sinks 13 X 2 X 15 NORTH SEA ENERGY POTENTIALS…
16. Possible RET deployment NW Europe 2050 for low GHG pathways (electricity only!) Breakdown of installed capacities and power generation in the core scenarios in the year 2050. The dashed line depicts the peak load in 2050. [Brouwer et al., Applied Energy, 2016]
17. Electricity system simulations NW Europe 2050 with 60% iRES Weeks with maximum and minimum residual loads during the year. System implications! [Brouwer et al., Applied Energy, 2016]
18. 18 Artist impression of TenneT’s (TSO) vision for a concept for large scale wind energy on the North Sea. source: Tennet
19. Hoped economics hydrogen production (natural gas based production: 2-3 Euro/GJ) 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 (0.3) 2.3 0 1 2 3 4 Electrolysis Exemplary cost build-up of hydrogen (EUR per kg, electricity @ 25 EUR/MWh) 2.2 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 (1.7) 2.2 0 1 2 3 4 Biomass gasification Exemplary cost build-up of hydrogen (EUR per kg, torrefied biomass @ 8.3 EUR/GJ) Source: Rabobank/NIB H2 roadmap, van Wijk, 2017 However, electricity now some 50 Euro/MWh, surpluses of power minimal during short periods, and infrastructure costs not yet included.
20. Further energy system integration… 2 0
21. Natural Gas ? Electrical Power Heat Cold Ventilation Heating Cooking (gas) Central Heating DHW Heat Pump uCHP Cooking (electric) Charging Electric Vehicle M Cooling Natural Gas COAL Thermal Power Plant Nuclear Power Plant waste Storage IMPORT EXPORT IMPORT EXPORT Other feedst ock Nation Region Local Site (Building / Office / Home) CHP “Vergisting” Bio Waste Heatpump Wind Wind Solar Solar Storage Storage Storage Storage Stora ge Stora ge AirCo Solar Collector Other (tidal, zero point) Solar Panel Fuel Cell WKO Electrolysis Industrial Site M M M Version 0.2 April 22nd 2015 © TNO Stora ge M M M M H2/ SYNGAS H2 processing Industrial Processes Future system is complex…. Decentralized, heat networks, energy cooperations, consumer preferences and behaviour, new and more comptetitive energy technologies, incentives, reliability, affordabiliy, new business vs. Current energy sector, regulation… National CO2 network Regional CO2 network & dedicated lines Use existing gas production lines >2020 Trunk line to large UK offshore gas fields Trunk line to oil fields + aquifers in offshore UK/Norway region National CO2 network Regional CO2 network & dedicated lines Use existing gas production lines >2020 Trunk line to large UK offshore gas fields Trunk line to oil fields + aquifers in offshore UK/Norway region Possible future configuration Of CCS infrastructure…
22. TECHNOLOGY REGULATORY ECONOMY SOCIAL Technology Energy models Economic models Advanced Control Modellen Forecasting-, simulation- & scenario analyses …model collaboration!. Economics Value chains, business cases Regulation Impact of incentives Social Societal support Consumer behaviour and preferences. …and multidisciplinary. Spatial Dimensions: factory - industrial sites – city – province – country – multilateral – Europe – global.
23. Industrial transformation -> zero carbon footprint; daunting complexity. • Industry ~50% of primary energy use. • Many options: – Energy efficiency improvement existing processes – New (inherently more efficient) processes – Renewable feedstock (biobased industry – Renewable energy carriers (green power, green hydrogen) – Carbon Capture & Storage (with BECCS negative GHG emissions) – Recycling/re-use/circulair value chains – Shifts in markets and products. • All combined! Over roughly 3 decades; overall one investment cycle!! • Factory level, regional level, structural changes in economy and energy system 2 3 Figure 2 Location and size of the main industrial emission clusters. 1) Rotterdam - Moerdijk (16.9 Mt CO 2 ); 2) Noordzeekanaalgebied (12.0 Mt CO 2 ); 3) Zeeland - W-Brabant (7.9 Mt CO 2 ); 4) Chemelot (4.5 Mt CO 2 ); 5) Eemsdelta (0.7 Mt CO 2 ); 6) Emmen (0.5 Mt CO 2 ).[8,9]
24. All these factors matter… And are interlinked… 2 4 Joint effort of:
25. 25 Berghout et al, 2016 Spatial issues… example of CCS in Rijnmond
26. Eemsdelta/Delfzijl (or any other industrial cluster) Eemshaven Delfzijl Eemsdelta National CO2 network Regional CO2 network & dedicated lines Use existing gas production lines >2020 Trunk line to large UK offshore gas fields Trunk line to oil fields + aquifers in offshore UK/Norway region National CO2 network Regional CO2 network & dedicated lines Use existing gas production lines >2020 Trunk line to large UK offshore gas fields Trunk line to oil fields + aquifers in offshore UK/Norway region
27. RE costs have declined in the past further declines expected in the future But fossil fuel based energy technologies (and supplies) learn as wel… Learning curve for power generation technologies, historic data and POLES WETO reference projection up to 2030. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
28. • Improved siting of wind farms (Learning by doing) • Development of specific components (gear boxes, generators) and regulating mechanisms (stall/ pitch regulation) (R&D) • Mass production of wind turbines (economies-of-scale) • Upscaling of wind turbines (upscaling) Factors influencing learning/ unit costs Example for onshore wind farms:
29. SER advisory council: Energy transition and employment impacts (I)
30. SER advisory council: Energy transition and employment impacts (II)
31. • In Europe shortage of skilled workers is a substantial barrier for realizing the ambitious energy transition goals. • At the same time there is a substantial need for equipping existing energy professionals with up to date skills. • Required skills and knowledge change fast. • Increasingly interdisciplinary. 31 Major human capital agenda
32. 32 Example: Interdisciplinary training of PhD’s in a Marie Curie Training Netwerk; applied on the energy transition of the North Sea Region (ENSYSTRA). 15 PhD researchers Technology, Energy system modelling Actor behaviour, Markets, Policy Integrated education program Many links between projects
33. Governing the ‘’knowledge triangle’’…
34. New Energy Coalition: a public private partnership in the Northe of the Netherlands Rationale for the initiative: build a leading knowledge infrastructure to support ‘’the energy transition’’ at large; intermingling scientific and applied research across the board, energy education from vocational to post-academic and business development & entrepreneurship
35. New Energy Coalition public private partnership o Focus on acceleration of energy transition o Public private partnership o Activities under three pillars:  Education  Research  Innovation o Business development and entrepreneurship in sustainable and innovative energy solutions. o Regional economic development o Public private partnership o Energy business school o Standard and customized training programs on energy at post-academic and executive level o Founding partners include Gasunie, Gazprom, Gasterra, Shell and University of Groningen
36. • Massive investments needed and changes in investment portfolio. • Energy business is changing • New professionals needed from vocational to academic (and post-academic) level. • Research to support innovation and implementation; increasingly interdisciplinary. Societal needs and relevance
37. Where It houses New Energy Coalition but also energy research groups of the University of Groningen and the Hanze University of Applied Sciences; including the EnTranCe; Energy Transition Centre
38. an education ecosystem… knowledge and business facilities: • International Business School • Universities and vocational education focused on energy • Research and innovation facilities (ESTRAC, EnTranCe, IDEA, Investa, Energy Venture Lab, Energysense) • Network • International, national and regional • Knowledge institutes, Business, Governments
39. Expanding on a strong baseline: education Bachelor • Electrical/Mechanical engineering – Intern. power generation & distribution • Mechanical engineering – Minor Energy & Society • Part-time Electrical/Mechanical engineering – Specialisation Energy & Distribution and Specialisation Installation Technology • Chemical technology – specialization sustainable Energy • Technical computer science – minor ICT & Energy Master • European Master of Renewable Energy • Pre-master Renewable Energy • Master International Communication Bachelor • Physics – Energy & Environment • Chemistry – Sustainable Chemistry & Energy • Minor – People, Planet, Profit Master • Energy & Environment Sciences • Energy and Environment, Energy and Climate • LLM European Law – Specialisation in Energy and Climate law • Executive master Finance & Control in the Energy Industry Exec. Master – Energy Delta Institute In development: • University College – Track energy EAE > EDUCATION > A STRONG BASELINE 39 EAE is not an education provider itself  it builds on existing programmes of UoG and HUoAS; Aims:  contribute to education of ‘energy professionals’ of the future, from vocational level to post-academic:  Contribute to growth in number of national and international energy students in Groningen
40. Mapping System Energy education 40 Supply Analysis Who: MBO, HBO, WO, MBA What: Courses and Programs Energy Students Demand Analysis General Trend: world, Europe, NL Employment Effect: Quantity, Sector, Skill Gap Gap Analysis Decision Stage 1 (Institution Level) Education Priorities and Agenda Current Situation Competitive Analysis Market Analysis Decision Stage 2 (Faculty Level) New Education Programs Improvement of Existing Programs [ Liu, EAE, 2016]
41. Major issue for ‘’energy education’’ • Energy transition requires a larger skilled workforce across the board: Vocational – post academic. • Key: Technical skills for dealing with new technologies is key; combined with skills to adapt (ICT and energy infrastructure for example…) • Touches upon all key sectors (e.g. industrial transformation, new car industry, built environment, etc.) • Much employment will be ‘’new business’’ • Regional dimensions (potentials, economic structure, etc.) • Interdisciplinary skills related to implementation: governance, business, planning, services…. • ALSO includes declining demand for existing energy professionals in fossil energy business
42. • T-shape students (strong disciplinary foundation + interdisciplinary skills). • Continuous learning skills. • Education & curricula in continuous evolution; collaboration & co-evolution with industry! • In house training, interimships, post-academic training… • New business & entrepreneurship. • Strategic priority for government, business and education centers/institutions. • Major opportunity: sustainable and high quality employment! Exciting perspective for students! 42 Key elements for ‘’energy’’ education
43. Thank you very much for your attention Q&A?