Probabilistic estimation model (Ivo Nas)

A risk-driven approach for project forecasts, using functional sizing

Transcript

1. Probabilistic estimation model A risk-driven approach for project forecasts, using functional sizing Advisor for risk management Alliance for payroll tax (Keten loonheffingen) Strategic advisor The Dutch alliance on data and tax on wages (Loonaangifteketen ) Ivo Nas – Dutch Tax Administration (Belastingdienst) 16-10-2025
2. Probabilistic estimation model: A risk-driven approach for project forecasts Dutch Tax administration has many large-scale software development projects. However, project forecasts are way too optimistic. Teamed up with IT control department (Eric Bom & Rob de Munnik). Our center for functional sizing and project data 21-10-2025
3. The goal of model Incorporate risks and uncertainty better in project business cases, and make better predictions regarding project duration and costs. Main pillars for the model: 1. Scientific based approach 2. Model as a good predictor 3. Transparency • Quantify uncertainties and risks • Generate multiple project scenarios (optimistic, realistic & security) • Give decision-makers options: how much uncertainty is acceptable? Risk-driven approach to project forecasting, because…
4. 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 Function points Kansdichtheid 1000 FP Functional size of project X Deterministic
5. 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 Function points Kansdichtheid 1000 FP Functional size of project X Deterministic What does this number mean? -Most likely? -Average? -Maximum size (worst case)? -Minimum size (best case)?
6. 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 Function points Probability density Most likely Functional size of project X Probabilistic
7. 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 Function points Probability density Most likely Functional size of project X Probabilistic 90% confident 5% 5%
8. 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 Function points Probability density Expected value (average) Functional size of project X Probabilistic p85 Buffer Certainty scenario: Mainly setbacks. 85% probability that we will remain below this figure. Realistic scenario: Scenario with both windfalls and setbacks. Manage based on this.
9. Risk-driven budgeting model Model input Historical data Expert estimations Hours of employee availability Productivity = hours / FP Deterministic business case Probabilistic business case Knowledge uncertainty Event uncertainty Risk 1 Risk 2 Risk 3 Function points (FP) Size Capacity Prod.
10. Risk-driven budgeting model Model input Historical data Expert estimations Deterministic business case Probabilistic business case Knowledge uncertainty Event uncertainty Risk 1 Risk 2 Risk 3 Size Capacity Prod.
11. Meehl conducted 150 different studies on experts and models. – Even the simplest models outperform experts Tetlock examined over 82,000 predictions over a period of 20 years. – “It is impossible to find an area where humans outperform even the simplest algorithms.” Kahneman won the Nobel Prize by demonstrating the irrationality of experts. – Proved statistically that experts make far more mistakes in their estimations than they themselves expect. – Experts are convinced of the correctness of their assessments, even if their objective accuracy is low or even zero. Input: use data! 11
12. How to use your own historical data Mean productivity per quarter in hours per function point 25 32 29 Historical data Model input 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 HOURS PER FP PI • Example of historical data regarding productivity Distribution of mean productivity Probability density Hours per FP
13. › Calibrated expert: – Someone whose estimations are (measurably) as often correct as he/she expects them to be. › 90% confidence = 90% probability of an estimate being correct – Ask 100 questions, and expect: – 90 correct – 10 wrong › Kahneman on improving expert estimates – “Direct, consistent, and unambiguous feedback is crucial for developing true expertise.” Really no data? Use calibrated expert estimates 13
14. Let's practice! 14 How many McDonald's restaurants were there in the Netherlands in 2023? With 90% confidence: › Lower bound › Upper bound
15. Let's practice! 15 How many McDonald's restaurants were there in the Netherlands in 2023? With 90% confidence: › Lower bound › Upper bound 255 McDonalds restaurants
16. Data & estimations give the probability distributions Model input Historical data Expert estimations Deterministic approach Probabilistic approach Knowledge uncertainty Event uncertainty Risk 1 Risk 2 Risk 3 Size Capacity Prod.
17. Simulation #1 Function points (total) 606 FP Productivity (mean) 23 hours per FP Availability (mean) 237 IV days per quarter Risks Missed feature in FPAi = + 25 FP Cost: how many IV days needed? (we don’t use euros for cost for some reason..) 1592 IV days Lead time: how many quarters needed for completion? 6,7 quarters Probability distributions give a ‘random’ number 1 project simulation (Monte Carlo simulation) Calculation example:
18. More simulations.. Simulation #1 #2 #3… Function points (total) 606 FP 725 FP 590 FP Productivity (mean) 23 hours per FP 19 hours per FP 31 hours per FP Availability (mean) 237 IV days per quarter 195 IV dg per quarter 266 IV dg per quarter Risks Missed feature in FPA = + 25 FP - Senior developer left unexpectedly = + 36 IV dagen Cost: how many IV days needed? 1592 IV days 1721 IV days 2323 IV days Lead time: how many quarters needed for completion? 6,7 quatres 8,8 quatres 8,6 PI’s
19. rial ID: 995 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 Sprints nodig 23 23.028957 24.47413 25.59411 26.44549 24.47667 31.08336 28.06877 22.30332 22.28221 22.11781 22 21 20.25331 28 28 27.52782 21.3784 31.08708 35.44004 21.97717 21.65237 26 30.97185 25.69312 24 15.89293 24.58332 19.29139 26.25191 21.88676 23 21.94984 25.7716 30.40805 23.28335 24.18547 32.29377 26.55111 22 29.22453 32.42355 24.50223 26.48622 21.53789 23 26.54922 19.92848 29.59197 31 19.1888 23.92883 16.52714 22.30019 24.0672 24.80588 24.38813 22.99368 24.91506 24.41524 29.41215 22.46357 21.43109 21.14414 Functiepunten totaal 679.46 679.96608 596.9912 737.9589 777.555 663.077 774.0688 674.6534 591.6049 648.8168 619.8667 609.7955 590.7584 671.5212 915.0455 722.8393 636.3524 757.3614 701.2363 692.354 610.4829 755.3445 770.1638 751.6797 734.3922 702.1342 581.4407 715.2707 576.1122 798.9954 662.091 652.7966 655.9637 725.5675 731.1874 639.0787 636.466 876.1978 717.8001 638.9343 733.47 766.2146 636.8574 674.8207 669.6682 658.3365 735.6713 680.4217 806.2246 759.6706 621.4111 657.9414 587.5594 643.5948 653.2466 716.7781 666.0995 656.3347 606.879 763.9087 696.3407 667.4104 649.6976 586.8481 IV dagen 3859.23 3707.887 3673.449 4159.23 5056.317 4002.741 5484.907 4243.816 3583.575 4008.731 3873.687 3279.819 3689.317 3917.056 4888.786 4327.657 4244.043 4178.495 4539.193 4561.604 3755.503 4024.028 4315.729 4448.543 4055.565 4703.289 3075.833 4030.745 3364.542 4773.821 4160.403 3515.124 3801.693 4264.45 4449.844 3966.743 4130.602 5376.557 4131.807 3697.119 4941.561 5202.485 3758.753 4563.775 3850.144 3878.892 4659.928 4009.174 4637.633 5671.497 3250.516 3855.573 2973.994 3698.997 4552.851 3709.067 3976.616 3649.353 3902.817 4092.245 4002.429 4034.27 3717.244 3780.089 101 Scope in functiepunten 667.94 660.22 588.31 737.96 777.55 637.72 760.50 664.38 591.60 630.45 619.87 609.80 590.76 671.52 890.70 687.86 636.35 740.95 675.55 680.75 578.91 755.34 770.16 732.51 721.49 702.13 581.44 685.35 564.94 778.02 662.09 628.08 655.96 698.00 721.07 616.27 636.47 848.84 717.80 614.58 715.32 766.21 636.86 646.98 669.67 643.00 735.67 680.42 791.51 759.67 591.32 631.32 557.18 643.59 636.76 702.63 666.10 656.33 591.43 763.91 696.34 667.41 649.70 566.56 102 Productiviteit 28.63 24.82 26.39 26.58 31.51 32.65 34.84 32.55 31.26 28.30 27.37 24.32 29.28 30.86 30.30 31.66 34.20 27.61 30.38 33.30 29.03 27.36 27.38 23.95 28.22 31.42 26.94 25.51 29.99 31.74 31.64 27.44 27.95 28.27 32.50 31.66 32.43 29.61 25.39 25.95 35.63 36.34 25.12 31.10 31.73 25.32 33.23 28.49 25.62 35.36 27.76 27.68 23.25 27.55 36.53 28.45 26.97 24.08 32.52 21.97 22.79 27.82 25.13 32.04 103 Uren geschreven 922.00 966.12 916.91 843.88 1040.82 928.93 932.78 813.26 865.52 1008.46 859.26 899.73 886.52 1066.72 1015.62 820.81 812.34 1096.68 772.17 667.18 890.29 1002.11 1045.92 1121.74 837.68 1080.12 1065.06 812.08 950.50 1009.46 1037.59 806.10 887.62 907.78 869.41 918.37 899.06 819.74 775.42 863.31 901.70 893.05 907.14 924.15 1012.02 965.33 984.65 1104.54 1013.09 1008.56 917.54 965.56 1009.44 928.19 1078.55 857.34 803.73 794.15 926.81 968.97 1007.71 1055.08 1047.33 930.77 104 Productiviteit 15.77 17.14 21.03 16.17 16.86 14.99 18.62 16.49 15.91 19.06 18.97 18.23 19.36 14.12 11.86 15.24 18.23 14.63 17.75 18.40 17.81 14.13 16.79 20.69 14.83 20.11 14.12 17.81 15.35 15.14 16.85 14.69 17.11 18.19 13.06 16.63 16.88 18.39 18.62 18.85 17.16 17.49 19.34 20.30 13.05 21.03 14.42 15.23 19.22 22.29 13.26 18.10 14.81 16.72 17.59 11.53 19.53 16.29 14.13 15.46 20.59 18.94 18.14 17.77 105 Uren geschreven 569.93 557.28 561.27 515.46 528.88 533.97 545.29 543.23 553.64 576.90 575.66 525.66 547.12 545.85 559.75 543.83 502.75 591.98 550.25 547.10 520.70 560.55 508.44 522.35 543.91 596.23 574.43 538.56 510.00 484.45 577.23 546.42 555.49 549.64 506.54 531.31 554.27 547.11 552.02 567.98 553.67 586.54 532.75 541.51 523.42 611.24 558.24 557.16 548.98 546.85 526.75 524.70 566.17 512.61 512.86 577.03 546.81 578.62 539.71 530.61 511.96 574.63 569.79 569.33 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 23.87256 22.58391 25.48121 21 21.28393 25.59675 25.67475 22.37863 24.06661 26 28.22317 27.07059 26 26.86303 26.8538 25.43206 25.40307 25.58095 24 21.63934 23.90909 29.30622 21.9892 26.06708 20.29386 26.60406 21.47995 23.97188 20.16422 34.25312 24 19.42599 21.30319 29.20683 28 25.47571 27.47719 31.56518 24 19.5561 30.20056 25.54267 27.95658 30 28.49429 23.33706 20.38136 26.14358 23.29705 25.28599 28.50203 23.74944 22.44038 25.04355 22 21.54856 21.58822 30.83335 30.13039 22.4336 24.33796 25 22.38968 20.80643 19.27523 17.62756 29.93229 24.12025 23.3303 24.17857 19.85253 615.3127 661.5225 659.8383 693.5664 549.351 815.6091 753.8063 591.2831 714.746 708.565 712.0522 669.9368 645.8013 664.2095 704.4858 688.9617 785.4684 758.2634 727.5109 657.3235 710.9285 648.0159 609.1625 766.5131 632.9102 646.7299 652.9973 749.6219 720.6343 773.6168 751.2403 568.8826 565.8945 597.0646 842.4597 728.8916 620.4246 714.514 626.188 639.3617 716.1956 832.3886 787.9016 771.2175 776.3857 574.4745 655.042 594.5083 721.116 623.7504 703.3293 646.3863 714.9412 761.096 610.3199 577.5456 645.0814 750.0855 742.9257 606.6147 658.1925 586.3198 654.4119 638.2324 565.5395 539.859 840.4742 700.9832 660.6866 558.7253 583.6947 3577.355 3678 3950.086 3711.506 3718.192 4685.398 4752.887 3569.501 4296.65 4172.42 4578.882 4210.791 3938.677 4032.955 4224.285 4268.851 4719.922 4542.268 4197.339 3650.275 4215.925 4409.037 3457.935 4748.554 3252.581 4609.944 4090.144 4223.91 3877.992 5134.191 4185.644 3342.4 3553.102 4428.879 5182.566 4008.13 3970.871 4568.367 4126.159 3674.491 4626.534 4848.582 4892.03 4533.779 4226.762 3791.029 3405.056 4445.218 3862.882 4511.762 3992.083 3825.211 4380.9 4030.336 3724.951 3433.499 3893.191 5196.825 4713.145 3836.926 3798.107 3854.698 3626.818 3750.009 3110.967 2946.548 4991.959 4173.648 3750.259 3498.836 3455.258 615.31 643.60 648.54 664.61 549.35 789.15 731.16 591.28 690.93 708.57 712.05 651.47 631.41 651.97 670.08 655.62 759.15 741.32 719.32 640.22 695.27 621.00 580.18 732.86 616.75 631.17 653.00 733.98 698.04 744.33 744.31 557.35 548.39 578.31 832.89 728.89 620.42 705.12 595.86 639.36 695.73 816.62 761.42 771.22 776.39 553.30 655.04 583.02 721.12 612.39 672.92 646.39 714.94 728.36 610.32 569.03 645.08 743.79 731.95 606.61 658.19 572.74 617.91 638.23 565.54 539.86 831.19 700.98 660.69 542.53 583.69 24.61 28.76 29.63 25.86 30.90 29.47 29.66 31.08 32.04 30.12 31.90 33.05 25.46 30.00 29.00 33.44 28.76 29.47 27.86 27.50 29.11 30.81 27.25 30.46 23.78 36.77 31.98 26.70 26.04 34.41 27.71 28.26 27.75 34.85 29.38 29.36 26.07 27.73 29.08 29.76 30.83 29.27 30.36 26.08 26.91 32.21 24.97 35.33 27.66 35.09 31.30 27.01 31.04 24.66 28.25 28.26 30.25 33.92 31.64 31.24 26.71 28.80 26.08 28.19 29.74 28.00 27.76 30.66 27.19 28.79 28.94 880.35 869.40 825.87 943.01 949.64 1025.63 1010.54 863.48 1066.56 842.44 1181.01 870.00 959.43 794.10 871.64 929.36 957.54 955.10 1036.33 899.57 974.17 766.84 1037.95 989.42 1054.80 943.60 1021.62 1054.30 1026.38 800.28 899.25 943.24 838.43 797.42 1057.49 889.92 1029.18 933.60 985.44 1006.39 939.51 1094.65 915.45 1097.43 769.30 949.99 979.76 1056.10 880.13 1010.14 804.98 825.57 1040.06 987.62 1027.52 1007.15 964.64 1149.08 836.66 902.28 1045.22 855.09 871.50 1071.14 928.24 889.12 858.08 1018.62 1029.42 674.30 923.65 19.23 14.96 15.59 16.03 20.52 14.28 15.83 16.14 12.71 15.79 18.58 15.11 22.12 16.08 17.66 15.33 18.32 16.51 17.89 15.66 16.86 19.84 16.37 18.32 16.09 19.12 17.72 16.87 15.42 17.66 15.88 17.56 17.98 20.73 18.75 13.72 21.41 22.24 18.91 14.91 19.63 16.27 17.93 20.14 15.55 19.04 15.72 23.31 13.77 20.07 13.12 18.83 17.05 16.26 18.85 17.75 17.18 20.64 17.47 16.81 18.67 22.52 17.63 16.20 13.41 14.12 18.29 15.48 17.35 20.46 17.12 530.46 605.19 560.21 548.97 546.90 542.14 530.12 538.18 605.86 556.87 505.96 573.60 566.03 508.25 492.61 520.98 580.78 559.47 544.07 540.80 540.28 555.91 498.14 562.38 560.57 555.20 562.05 558.34 567.30 545.59 591.85 531.61 563.12 508.22 567.38 521.23 517.06 516.33 513.26 533.71 499.02 554.43 533.63 534.38 558.61 520.54 518.15 556.16 537.83 542.13 542.03 541.06 568.26 539.00 541.09 491.31 561.23 529.44 590.50 525.82 531.43 540.28 545.41 529.60 546.22 542.36 536.84 507.43 520.09 531.04 532.77 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 19.91905 23.51455 27.57726 22.23003 20.1193 22.34386 24 18 21.72078 25.37059 26.2671 21.61852 24.80868 26.83699 21.99456 20.16409 25.25955 23 20.35779 23 23.62812 25 29.83069 29.45431 19.62686 21.26291 26.44351 24.20133 23.55072 23.54844 19.18558 25.16976 24.71968 21.47741 23.8859 30.6275 25.78484 23.59782 23 23.61061 19.60466 28.20372 21.3312 25.06877 24.38601 21.6081 25.25357 30 25.16107 21.20339 21.98653 21.23558 19.48433 22 21.25573 26.15115 29.78949 29.86439 27.34834 22.88946 26.795 30.20506 20.75806 29.10751 21.33057 29.4252 20.28327 24.01886 24.76157 31.11397 25.13831 26.35926 677.6243 685.2964 845.896 720.7605 592.8236 655.6089 655.6271 576.898 596.2959 591.6223 664.1609 647.8696 721.0396 779.1293 588.9913 692.4119 730.3224 693.5857 606.4825 601.3235 684.8586 700.5821 685.3019 727.9106 575.3522 628.706 728.8566 627.5504 610.1485 710.1095 667.844 638.5869 774.2194 644.3005 623.87 873.346 642.6328 715.0926 620.3072 707.917 597.755 788.4176 686.0815 704.9955 659.1519 678.5026 698.1732 794.7493 647.8054 635.9942 604.0147 618.0306 621.7951 674.8472 532.3237 769.766 750.1556 876.4159 716.4806 666.7186 705.3249 729.3269 669.3906 735.7194 602.85 785.577 591.9749 627.4272 690.1954 895.7385 687.0077 595.737 3447.682 3784.019 4618.633 4157.648 3376.593 3871.376 3873.318 3161.995 3417.739 3834.508 4185.01 3918.928 4229.52 4804.905 3771.14 3820.738 4081.393 4073.061 3713.938 3976.334 4049.156 4606.134 4623.465 4516.777 3372.126 3908.333 4307.988 3817.48 3497.986 3812.401 3630.344 4186.341 4529.529 4319.159 3540.796 4811.952 4028.205 4239.37 3945.249 4273.908 3666.054 4972.859 3812.219 4144.497 3982.641 3982.085 4391.38 4744.528 3914.706 3581.335 3994.17 3745.235 3923.223 3977.236 3406.94 4421.815 5541.912 5603.83 4150.563 3895.717 4232.673 4370.69 3813.306 4789.622 3804.52 5013.105 3651.745 3853.837 4271.359 4699.94 4214.188 3358.734 677.62 670.71 845.90 689.53 582.39 655.61 655.63 576.90 596.30 571.87 642.49 621.03 721.04 779.13 557.67 692.41 730.32 687.62 606.48 601.32 684.86 700.58 670.85 706.30 575.35 604.41 728.86 609.73 610.15 695.90 649.75 626.10 751.67 644.30 602.97 847.05 609.64 704.10 590.82 707.92 584.27 788.42 659.96 696.43 640.51 646.82 698.17 794.75 647.81 635.99 604.01 618.03 598.20 674.85 507.29 754.01 730.64 876.42 699.63 634.40 685.74 704.17 669.39 735.72 588.73 759.27 591.97 596.80 665.89 861.60 671.73 580.00 23.67 26.34 23.68 28.96 26.98 31.85 26.49 25.43 30.16 30.47 31.33 30.41 29.48 29.42 29.02 28.68 27.15 30.03 28.48 30.50 28.62 32.80 37.37 26.76 28.50 32.07 26.73 27.38 29.92 27.53 28.52 31.37 26.66 31.62 24.96 26.30 29.75 29.46 29.74 30.36 27.31 30.87 28.04 28.79 34.38 27.12 32.94 27.05 31.09 29.76 29.64 30.08 32.90 28.92 27.14 26.79 33.32 32.02 27.15 27.68 26.70 29.50 30.56 34.62 31.01 31.08 26.81 30.41 30.26 22.15 31.45 26.65 918.35 1064.77 1002.42 989.43 907.31 962.71 932.96 1089.09 857.81 983.08 835.83 1016.36 1069.22 1036.40 858.54 1015.63 839.44 941.61 963.38 929.12 1045.84 1039.94 912.30 1016.20 939.46 973.02 1132.76 952.22 834.56 878.33 1051.23 944.25 942.13 1087.75 960.54 980.48 929.22 951.02 926.01 961.98 1077.52 985.58 1084.11 906.53 984.83 946.69 938.14 973.72 814.92 901.42 1000.73 958.34 1135.75 1169.42 1024.50 990.16 944.73 997.36 804.50 968.85 945.76 799.07 1025.58 967.96 1123.78 845.43 943.31 894.67 901.44 796.24 872.83 639.44 14.12 16.71 17.51 15.98 17.08 13.71 19.69 18.42 14.31 19.68 17.22 17.11 16.88 18.29 20.28 14.99 16.12 15.25 16.82 17.83 17.71 19.07 14.79 22.32 17.25 16.49 20.21 19.90 13.10 14.28 14.13 19.90 16.85 18.26 18.65 16.83 19.31 16.06 20.54 17.17 18.11 17.86 15.71 13.80 13.13 17.67 16.38 20.02 16.11 14.13 17.75 15.59 15.90 17.48 21.38 18.32 21.45 18.16 16.24 17.78 19.87 14.57 13.56 14.76 17.71 19.40 17.36 15.54 17.79 18.56 17.10 16.06 525.86 513.88 557.05 568.52 535.49 557.18 557.26 591.37 596.54 504.08 527.76 552.78 516.59 569.69 568.89 556.43 490.41 587.41 529.18 481.28 539.29 554.92 523.70 560.60 550.84 536.04 567.20 553.19 553.03 562.45 541.97 533.08 587.11 563.03 518.54 518.28 510.97 527.70 563.76 549.61 576.04 521.75 515.20 524.99 535.54 576.51 555.70 547.89 524.17 579.46 525.68 577.83 582.93 538.47 573.85 579.62 583.80 560.41 563.22 561.08 542.04 538.84 511.76 566.34 545.16 535.16 574.03 487.95 556.62 555.67 578.63 541.13 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 17.10526 26.39009 22.54236 19.2284 19.67152 21.03652 21.45106 19.63223 32.03238 25.43578 24.59927 24.81449 24.77169 22 21 20.00853 22.21164 26.32617 28.43811 17.70029 20.74145 23.18019 24.57934 25 22 22 27.65695 32.09549 28.60599 28.29005 23.43682 23.52094 24 33.02473 21.96825 23.54523 34.28464 24.83732 20.69015 22.68746 26.69724 25.25176 30.37422 18.0471 16.1905 20.25604 23.46912 21.49913 25 26.42843 22.3475 26.61144 35.18248 23.97288 23.17162 20.10276 24.00232 26.6075 18.26883 26.87872 24.42199 27.44802 28.07765 25.88568 22.81553 22.7784 21.50235 24.6163 24.43297 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16.46 20.62 15.62 15.92 18.83 20.09 18.33 20.40 17.81 16.30 17.39 14.34 18.48 17.53 14.94 18.57 17.80 14.07 16.15 15.70 16.90 17.12 16.79 18.29 17.22 17.88 14.09 15.90 18.50 14.46 20.11 569.26 521.01 540.98 521.95 550.74 543.12 524.39 575.31 576.13 510.26 589.92 563.82 560.38 526.06 580.80 563.11 545.85 537.25 528.41 543.55 537.84 538.96 550.65 546.90 578.56 559.84 494.02 548.16 546.76 548.53 557.32 546.60 530.44 542.20 539.83 527.74 566.50 534.03 561.42 535.47 540.26 539.59 491.95 612.27 555.01 597.21 584.37 530.23 558.30 543.30 539.10 580.54 527.40 548.64 571.85 566.79 512.79 579.20 556.00 503.19 510.44 549.09 556.91 514.65 555.58 497.64 522.48 491.80 491.17 553.62 554.86 486.32 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 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572.42 571.04 543.91 519.53 563.00 519.78 611.40 533.76 537.43 565.37 556.28 565.17 549.63 537.64 536.69 537.91 597.80 539.07 543.00 578.40 509.43 564.88 579.38 564.54 552.79 560.14 583.94 533.40 564.08 577.52 518.49 519.43 585.66 531.48 517.20 533.76 554.14 540.36 537.24 2509 2510 2511 2512 2513 2514 2515 2516 2517 2518 2519 2520 2521 2522 2523 2524 2525 2526 2527 2528 2529 2530 2531 2532 2533 2534 2535 2536 2537 2538 2539 2540 2541 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 2553 2554 2555 2556 2557 2558 2559 2560 2561 2562 2563 2564 2565 2566 2567 2568 2569 2570 2571 2572 2573 2574 2575 2576 2577 2578 2579 2580 2581 2582 2583 2584 2585 2586 2587 2588 2589 2590 2591 2592 2593 2594 2595 2596 2597 2598 2599 2600 2601 2602 2603 2604 20.27993 29.50714 21.46148 27.37991 21.33818 25.31572 16.06418 24.83861 26.48127 28.54676 20.4385 22.01737 26 21.38058 23.74749 23.85008 24.39617 25.29396 32.38262 23.43021 27.79302 22.80889 20.59988 23.86407 22.4422 19.79484 26.42584 18.15421 19.85479 18.97305 25.31296 21.93597 23.18144 29 28.01098 24.95038 18.43913 27 24.15967 18.26397 23.82085 30.71177 24.76945 22.08649 28.22042 25.45665 23 23 22.30867 26.27732 21.60066 25.54648 18.19456 25.53843 23.30928 31.63488 23.89324 26.95549 38.18456 21.63434 24.07401 30.78135 24.398 24.82652 22.89264 22.17033 23.61766 21 28 23.11043 28.10632 24.50192 23.73086 25.42799 27.42526 21.78512 17.42435 24.6914 17.31811 29.27305 23.30193 22 25 17.49855 21.55504 25.16796 21.66351 23 24 22.58665 21.61259 22.31292 20.47865 23.85855 29.30058 34.36475 610.6689 659.7524 617.6931 656.6058 642.2176 584.0887 557.7252 681.2584 597.8713 707.7323 576.9329 703.8466 767.8719 708.7664 771.759 595.8347 689.56 654.2098 777.9218 619.2342 797.812 657.2137 627.7047 672.4441 635.8332 610.0214 636.4834 618.0158 612.8019 599.9753 690.4328 547.7426 643.3629 810.914 846.9484 796.3309 622.835 667.8011 626.0639 588.9491 658.7264 804.3114 660.9967 649.0584 714.2014 588.8893 726.897 688.5142 651.6322 606.2428 570.9611 620.5664 633.1576 628.2296 611.2192 802.06 698.3892 649.769 910.3147 606.7595 617.1184 824.5365 678.8074 705.6781 669.448 622.8551 674.6208 571.5754 664.2051 641.1114 600.0322 640.8245 647.3604 640.9013 746.6284 600.9756 590.2799 704.1684 492.276 666.9668 665.4936 617.6284 586.6192 594.4748 672.711 800.3556 606.722 751.5417 712.2725 578.2442 576.4185 690.2898 643.1983 691.6034 765.1066 795.9561 3549.988 4393.337 3931.974 4339.421 4023.551 3481.216 2876.263 4253.709 4021.379 4246.487 2727.312 3919.502 4310.406 3648.028 4699.193 3132.056 4208.299 4407.898 4892.592 3966.121 4983.322 3750.718 3666.927 4409.874 3320.882 3468.518 3934.965 3402.643 3789.445 2995.552 4187.101 3391.151 3872.205 4923.051 4745.788 3987.186 3452.507 4642.31 3856.091 3066.055 4092.946 4424.775 4190.361 4178.865 4873.932 3825.26 4204.628 3807.601 4087.112 3836.229 3837.356 4153.797 3699.523 3936.775 3602.319 4435.543 3640.01 4138.342 5425.685 3991.741 4335.086 4303.999 3725.678 5033.176 3576.304 3372.815 4027.992 3112.543 4057.149 3761.027 4262.126 3844.742 3332.291 3926.54 3904.049 3720.128 3055.527 4652.419 3195.878 4294.831 3897.573 3866.123 3808.02 2955.701 3865.197 4798.799 3610.118 4344.105 4418.042 3373.411 3727.558 3934.972 3741.968 4407.527 4596.114 5513.782 589.782 659.7524 617.6931 656.6058 612.311 584.0887 539.6728 681.2584 597.8713 696.3812 562.0496 671.6105 767.8719 708.7664 741.6255 577.2803 689.56 629.0673 749.3578 619.2342 767.6463 632.6756 611.9148 672.4441 635.8332 590.1895 636.4834 618.0158 583.7884 599.9753 656.1557 547.7426 643.3629 790.2872 823.9094 779.9713 622.835 633.4593 626.0639 588.9491 632.3135 786.7665 634.7192 649.0584 705.9089 588.8893 691.1577 668.005 634.1124 606.2428 570.9611 608.3488 606.6401 628.2296 611.2192 782.2568 679.99 626.1847 889.7069 593.8884 617.1184 793.3517 678.8074 693.1799 655.8321 602.4428 646.2399 571.5754 664.2051 615.4216 576.8658 640.8245 647.3604 609.6079 715.6185 581.4401 590.2799 704.1684 492.276 666.9668 665.4936 617.6284 586.6192 594.4748 657.8437 781.2464 589.1219 741.2738 712.2725 566.8232 565.7588 690.2898 635.3841 691.6034 730.3287 779.756 29.47209 30.19195 32.29864 36.16946 33.68016 26.53836 24.88834 27.49579 29.95779 27.06743 18.9404 27.82107 26.48638 26.40223 31.08328 25.25575 28.62774 31.96773 25.44903 30.51491 29.72055 30.41323 27.16763 31.6068 21.5086 27.3461 30.58117 29.17884 30.46424 22.56887 29.45611 28.67005 31.56773 29.79711 29.35137 25.15945 27.51781 32.57024 30.92136 24.51084 30.45223 23.056 33.13719 29.96575 36.26199 29.80773 29.20254 25.07934 33.78794 33.57994 36.59022 30.67489 30.45298 26.96925 27.68217 19.93034 24.05237 30.59679 30.0252 32.70363 33.64202 21.70212 28.1035 35.70115 25.16169 24.0321 32.2175 29.41262 36.91832 30.07613 36.73889 26.04597 28.13287 30.36269 27.31982 32.00854 23.95074 30.81072 35.86662 32.51725 26.91632 27.27434 28.44867 23.34915 27.53383 30.84795 30.46353 28.21715 30.79982 27.87633 31.05361 28.92622 27.58417 34.53284 27.21353 35.58879 954.5333 1003.948 1062.077 881.644 1045.777 732.2922 1066.575 890.3727 859.3133 821.2225 991.944 1000.584 824.9545 896.8383 1051.062 671.1078 854.532 961.6911 935.8683 872.5829 962.7595 948.3003 1001.573 996.8312 1045.882 1094.282 761.2289 1036.715 1080.745 806.0105 820.2596 750.3904 915.9075 848.9974 947.2864 857.2488 995.5096 1105.259 884.8537 902.5392 989.0447 1005.46 949.162 1027.608 958.2856 922.168 1112.484 1020.084 1038.934 796.4148 1038.453 906.2696 1216.847 856.2576 829.368 934.6275 1026.271 795.2986 780.4984 1039.891 902.8272 989.4098 825.7512 1101.096 1054.924 1172.881 947.0368 812.1807 876.642 852.565 878.9418 960.3412 793.8308 921.6877 762.3023 939.5892 997.8575 1007.922 1045.511 756.2979 965.7359 1050.192 955.4308 863.8896 898.9328 1040.229 910.5082 961.8614 990.3915 836.8975 1086.523 919.1273 911.2404 1093.545 936.13 890.1009 15.95906 22.49065 17.24282 15.88577 15.15154 16.65457 14.79435 18.23323 21.22336 20.14681 17.71265 13.92216 17.86091 13.3384 16.61803 15.47674 18.70089 20.94891 21.67588 18.02828 19.12584 14.12453 15.27397 17.25807 18.7657 16.43287 17.37503 14.36723 14.98763 14.75409 17.76637 19.58125 15.83476 17.44206 14.37678 13.89983 16.04502 20.01926 14.52318 15.47719 18.59163 20.23444 16.22073 18.30937 17.76158 20.89013 16.50165 18.33693 14.49274 15.96853 16.13015 20.82312 15.22124 21.32527 16.19409 20.52371 16.67245 17.96149 15.83465 18.16767 20.98482 18.89636 15.01664 18.11769 16.43341 18.27039 13.81812 13.26885 11.06206 15.50123 17.1101 20.25691 11.70622 13.91899 13.78879 16.31594 15.87538 18.78882 14.09136 18.38521 19.06614 20.02532 21.79704 14.77496 17.34018 16.21801 15.6943 16.51628 18.1442 14.74358 18.87798 15.4432 18.29769 13.53313 20.21512 17.19921 535.59 528.5856 545.5963 550.666 504.9415 587.0752 571.5666 554.4849 491.9313 527.4411 533.0327 574.4205 534.0007 561.0718 580.267 512.8118 612.2105 552.5165 540.9688 554.4095 574.6751 549.3914 575.8242 585.553 566.5583 554.8344 592.6732 532.9795 556.2237 566.4731 575.858 513.1489 551.1263 556.996 568.7386 549.6503 559.4788 509.6018 571.5924 550.87 553.6855 551.0656 530.9471 590.9859 539.6674 533.5402 532.3736 566.1864 567.2878 570.3802 502.6933 519.2597 569.1595 548.2145 519.4579 558.6814 520.8433 537.1706 529.9232 548.2741 565.9784 544.2989 556.3872 547.5422 522.0053 561.9587 480.2808 541.4388 520.7648 576.6124 567.2777 560.0652 535.646 571.6503 551.3441 554.4129 560.9788 588.1459 547.4796 527.3922 570.0005 573.5699 513.0903 563.4402 594.4211 550.8099 533.1047 591.7165 539.978 545.23 537.8154 552.6303 602.4501 522.5786 539.4287 589.8496 10.000 simulations
20. • What does average scenario look like? • What does the 15% best scenarios look like? • ..and the 15% worst scenarios? • In how many % of the scenarios the project concluded before date ‘x’? • Etc. Now we can do some statistical analysis!
21. Expected impact of risks on cost (left) and lead time (right) Het gewogen gemiddelde effect van elk risico. Het gewogen gemiddelde effect van elk risico. Sensitiviteitsanalyse risico's: Tijd Sensitiviteitsanalyse risico's: Kosten 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Autonome groei JAVA Features incompleet Camunda Scope creep Camunda Scope creep JAVA Autonome groei Camunda Features incompleet JAVA JAVA Sleutelfiguurrisico (personen) Boven gmd uitstroom JAVA (personen) Afhankelijkheid kennis Camunda Derden Kwaliteit ondermaats Camunda Raakvlak: ontvangen / mededelen JAVA Kwaliteit ondermaats JAVA Sleutelfiguurrisico Business IV dagen 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Autonome groei JAVA Features incompleet Camunda Scope creep Camunda Scope creep JAVA Autonome groei Camunda Features incompleet JAVA JAVA Sleutelfiguurrisico (personen) Boven gmd uitstroom JAVA (personen) Afhankelijkheid kennis Camunda Derden Kwaliteit ondermaats Camunda Raakvlak: ontvangen / mededelen JAVA Kwaliteit ondermaats JAVA Sleutelfiguurrisico Business Product Increments
22. Start datum Kosten (IV dagen) Tijd (PI's) 1-5-2024 <- invullen Optimistisch scenario p15 Realistisch scenario Verwachtingswaarde (gmd) Zekerheid scenario p85 maart-28 december-28 Scenario's 5,759 6,817 4,472 mei-27 15.7 18.6 12.0 Start datum Kosten (IV dagen) Tijd (PI's) 1-5-2024 <- invullen Optimistisch scenario p15 Realistisch scenario Verwachtingswaarde (gmd) Zekerheid scenario p85 maart-28 december-28 Scenario's 5,759 6,817 4,472 mei-27 15.7 18.6 12.0 Start datum Kosten (IV dagen) Tijd (PI's) 1-5-2024 <- invullen Optimistisch scenario p15 Realistisch scenario Verwachtingswaarde (gmd) Zekerheid scenario p85 maart-28 december-28 Scenario's 5,759 6,817 4,472 mei-27 15.7 18.6 12.0 Optimistic scenario Realistic scenario Security scenario Probability Duration in number in annual quarters 15% 85% Uncertainty reserve Expected duration Relatively certain duration Accepted risk, here 15% gmd Optimistic scenario Realistic scenario Security scenario Cost in IV days Duration in quarters Starting date
23. Pros and cons Cons • The model provides probabilities, not assurances. • A model is never 100% complete • A model is only as good as your data (garbage in, garbage out) Pros • Uses all available knowledge (historical data & expert expertise) • A concrete, numerical, and transparent forecast. Every piece of input can be accounted for. • A proven approach with a solid foundation in science • Gives decision-makers options: how much uncertainty is acceptable?
24. Beat the bear Strive for improvement, not perfection
25. Thank you! Ivo Nas ijw.nas@belastingdienst.nl 06 50 16 75 16 25