ICU_177

Preliminary support material for the ICU 177 teleconference

Transcript

1. Island  Climate  Update  177   Forecast  period:   June  –  August  2015   Teleconference  Wednesday  3  of  June  2015   (11:30  AM  NZ  Bme)   3/06/15   1  
2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecBon  and  SST  anomalies  last  month   (May  2015)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaBon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaBon  (MJO)  diagnosBcs  and  forecasts     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     3/06/15   2   Outline    
3. 1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec;on)  and  SST  in  the  SW  Pacific   3/06/15   3  
4. Rainfall  averages  and  anomalies  (TRMM)     3/06/15   4  
5. 3/06/15   5   hTp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml  
6. 3/06/15   6   •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)  
7. SST  anomalies  April  2015   SST  anomalies  May  2015   3/06/15   7  
8. 3/06/15   8  
9. 2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa;on  and  forecast     3/06/15   9  
10. SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   3/06/15   Datasource  =  BoM  (hTp://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   10  
11. The  ENSO  Precipita;on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days  (1  June)  is  +1.83   (El  Nino)   SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES   3/06/15   hTp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html   11  
12. Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   3/06/15   12   hTp://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/  
13. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   3/06/15   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13   hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   April  2015     May  2015     Last  5  days  (1st  June)  
14. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   3/06/15   14   From  hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evoluBon-­‐status-­‐fcsts-­‐web.pdf    
15. 3/06/15   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 15   hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-­‐10/ wksl_anm.gif   Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies  
16. ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       3/06/15   16   Season   La  Niña   Prob.   Neutral   Prob.   El  Niño   Prob.   JJA  2015   0%   10%   90%   SON  2015   2%   13%   85%   DJF  2015/16   3%   17%   80%   CPC/IRI  Early-­‐Month  Consensus  ENSO  Forecast  ProbabiliBes  
17. 3)  MJO  diagnos;cs  and  forecasts     3/06/15   17  
18. Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  Monitoring  (BoM)   3/06/15   hTp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/  or  hTp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/     18  
19. Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  Dynamical  Forecast  (CPC)   3/06/15   hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     19  
20. Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  sta;s;cal  Forecast  (CPC)   3/06/15   hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     20  
21. 4)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts   3/06/15   21  
22. 3/06/15   22  
23. 3/06/15   23   METPI  rainfall  results   June – August 2015 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Kiribati (Western) 20 30 50 ABOVE High Kiribati (Eastern) 25 35 45 ABOVE Moderate-High Tuvalu 20 35 45 ABOVE High Pitcairn Island 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Austral Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High FSM 30 35 35 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate Cook Islands (Southern) 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Samoa 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Society Islands 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Cook Islands (Northern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Marquesas 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Niue 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Solomon Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Tokelau 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Tuamotu Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Wallis & Futuna 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High New Caledonia 40 40 20 AVG - BELOW High Fiji 45 35 20 BELOW High Tonga 45 35 20 BELOW High Vanuatu 45 35 20 BELOW High Papua New Guinea 50 30 20 BELOW High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is an overall assessment of the expected rainfall relative to normal for the time of year.
24. 3/06/15   24   METPI  rainfall  results  
25. 6)  METPI  SST  forecasts   3/06/15   25  
26. 3/06/15   26