Examining scenarios of ethnic composition in the United Kingdom

I gave this presentation at the International Geographical Union meeting in Quebec

The United Kingdom faces demographic uncertainty, as negotiations for leaving the European Union (Brexit) proceed. This paper focuses on the sub-national changes in the ethnic composition of the UK’s population. Brexit has implications for international migration into and out of the UK, dependent on future immigration policy and on how attractive the UK will be as a labour market. At the same time, the UK population is experiencing ethnic diversification, consequent on past immigration. The transition to a more ethnically diverse population is set to continue but the pace of change will depend on the outcome of Brexit. To explore the UK’s future ethnic diversity, we run five population projection scenarios, disaggregated by locality, age, sex and ethnic group. Three international migration scenarios, varying by the extent of the break with the EU, are implemented together with two reference projections assuming zero international migration and zero migration (including internal migration). Ethnic groups are differently affected by these migration scenarios, depending on the contribution of international migration to population growth and the extent of demographic momentum. Under every scenario, the UK’s population is projected to continue to grow, age and diversify.

Transcript

1. 2018 IGU Regional Conference | Quebec Examining scenarios of ethnic composition in the United Kingdom Nik Lomax School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT n.m.lomax@leeds.ac.uk
2. Context: Population trends 59 63 Source: ONS Population of the United Kingdom by Country of Birth and Nationality 80% 82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% 56,000 57,000 58,000 59,000 60,000 61,000 62,000 63,000 64,000 65,000 66,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % of population UK Born Population (000s) Year UK Population % UK Born CI
3. The impact of assumptions on projections
4. Variant projections "high population" variant assumes high fertility, life expectancy and net migration: 4.1 million above principal projection "low population" variant assumes low fertility, life expectancy and net migration: 4.9 million below principal projection
5. Evaluation, Revision and Extension of Ethnic Population Projections - ETHPOP Our overall aim is to understand and to forecast the ethnic composition, size and distribution of the United Kingdom’s population www.ethpop.org The research was supported by ESRC award ES/L013878/1 for the project Evaluation, Revision and Extension of Ethnic Population Projections – NewETHPOP
6. Why Ethnicity? • It is well established that demographic rates vary substantially by ethnic group: see Coleman (2006), Coleman (2010) Rees (2012). • Variation in service provision needs, e.g. – health care (Parliamentary office of Science and Technology 2007) – social care (Rees et al. 2009) – education (Penn, 2000) • Very important for monitoring ethnic advantage / disadvantage & segregation.
7. Why Ethnicity? An ethnically disaggregated projection should perform better than one which is only disaggregated by age and sex because additional ethnic heterogeneity is taken in to account within the model.
8. What impact do international and internal migration have on the size, composition and distribution of the UK population by ethnicity? Method: Run a projection model which experiments with migration components Aim: To prepare us for what will be a new and different demographic future Key Question
9. How? A population projection model Pro Cohort component model Bi-regional Single year of age 2 genders 12 ethnicities 389 local authority areas 2011 base 50 year horizon Ethnic mixing
10. Fertility and Mortality 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 <20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40+ ASFR, 2001 White Black-Caribbean Black-African Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Other
11. Internal migration 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0to4 5to9 10to14 15to19 20to24 25to29 30to34 35to39 40to44 45to49 50to54 55to59 60to64 65to69 70to74 75+ BAN BLA BLC CHI IND MIX OAS OBL OTH PAK WBI WHO Rate per 1,000 Estimated from 2011 Census tables UKMIG003, MU01AUK_LA_All and MMo1_BUK_All
12. International migration Direct impact Indirect impact
13. Scenario assumptions Scenario International Migration No Brexit Net International Migration trended to = +252k in 2031-32, then constant. Annually, In = 621k, Out = 362k Soft Brexit Net International Migration trended to = +185k in 2031-32, then constant. Annually, In = 518k, Out = 333k Hard Brexit Net International Migration trended to = +100k in 2031-32, then constant. Annually, In = 349k, Out = 249k No International Migration Set to zero – Reference projection No Migration Set to zero – Reference projection Scenario Internal Migration No Brexit, Soft Brexit and Hard Brexit, No International Migration 5-year average rates from 2006-07 to 2010-11 period applied to population at risk (by age, sex and ethnicity) in each year No Migration Set to zero – Reference projection
14. Scenario assumptions
15. Direct Impact of Migration Ethnicity No Brexit Soft Brexit Hard Brexit Immig. Emig. Balance Immig. Emig. Balance Immig. Emig. Balance White British & Irish 6,979 8,633 -1,655 5,924 8,009 -2,085 4,615 5,482 -867 Other White 11,242 4,052 7,189 9,617 3,764 5,853 7,857 3,701 4,156 Mixed 884 480 404 761 446 315 599 381 218 Indian 2,584 835 1,749 2,211 776 1,435 1,397 755 642 Pakistani 1,188 554 635 1,026 515 511 689 399 290 Bangladeshi 293 256 37 253 238 16 245 168 76 Chinese 2,281 855 1,425 1,943 794 1,149 868 402 465 Other Asian 2,054 870 1,185 1,762 808 954 1,275 668 607 Black African 1,508 461 1,046 1,290 428 862 1,295 692 603 Black Caribbean 196 333 -138 169 311 -142 211 177 34 Other Black 181 129 52 156 120 36 173 113 60 Other 1,364 463 900 1,163 429 734 849 433 416 All 30,754 17,922 12,831 26,277 16,638 9,639 20,072 13,370 6,702 The cumulative immigration, emigration and balance for the period 2011 to 2060
16. Indirect impact of migration No Brexit (business as usual) ‘Soft’ Brexit No Migration Four Migration Scenarios ‘Hard’ Brexit No International Migration
17. Populations very reliant on international migration • Generally largest net migration groups • Indian – older population (34.1) • Chinese and Other have low fertility (1.26 / 1.77)
18. Populations somewhat reliant on international migration Relatively young – BLA = 27.8 / OBL = 25.8 Black African have large starting –population and relatively high fertility (2.64)
19. Populations which continue to grow These groups have the demographic momentum to keep growing Very young populations: Pakistani = 27; Bangladeshi = 25.5; Mixed = 21.8 (youngest) Pakistani and Bangladeshi have very high fertility: TFR=3.2 and 3.47
20. Populations which are declining anyway These are the oldest groups who continue to age (WBI = 41.4; BLC = 38.7) They have relatively low fertility (WBI = 1.83; BLC = 1.75) They have net out-migration (except BLC under Hard Brexit)
21. Composition and diversity Ethnicity 2061 Population Scenario (%) 2011 Population (%) No Brexit Soft Brexit Hard Brexit No International Migration No Migration White British & Irish 82.4 57.9 59.6 64.5 75.6 75.2 Other White 4.5 12.9 11.8 10.0 4.0 3.9 Mixed 2.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.3 4.4 Indian 2.4 5.2 5.0 3.8 2.7 2.9 Pakistani 1.9 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.6 Bangladeshi 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 Chinese 0.7 2.6 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.6 Other Asian 1.4 3.1 3.0 2.5 1.6 1.7 Black African 1.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 2.5 2.7 Black Caribbean 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 Other Black 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 Other 0.9 1.8 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.8 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total Pop. 63,743 86,902 82,883 78,087 65,659 66,742 Diversity 0.32 0.64 0.62 0.57 0.42 0.43 Index of Diversity = 1 - Se re 2 where re = proportion of the population in ethnic group e
22. Sub-national changes (Soft Brexit) Index of Diversity = 1 - Se re 2 where re = proportion of the population in ethnic group e
23. Population Support Ratios (70+) PSR calculated by dividing the percentage of population aged 20-69 by the percentage of population aged 70+
24. Key message Ethnic groups affected differently by Brexit, but…
25. Key message The population will be more diverse The population is ageing Ethnic groups affected differently by Brexit, but… … under all scenarios
26. The latest ONS statistics* (to mid 2017) suggest: • A downturn in EU immigration, which is built into the Soft and Hard Brexit scenarios. • There was also a steep upturn in emigration, which we had not anticipated. • EU citizens are voting with their feet: they are not coming to work in the UK in as large numbers and are leaving to work elsewhere in larger numbers. *ONS (2017). Migration Statistics Quarterly Report: November 2017.
27. 2018 IGU Regional Conference | Quebec Examining scenarios of ethnic composition in the United Kingdom Nik Lomax School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT n.m.lomax@leeds.ac.uk