Embracing Uncertainty

Embracing Uncertainty

Over the last few years Dan has been working with and studying teams who are dramatically more productive than anything he's ever seen. They produce in weeks what would take other teams months, and iterate in days rather than months. One of the central themes he's observed is their ability to embrace uncertainty, holding multiple contradictory opinions at the same time and deferring commitment until there is a good reason.

Uncertainty lies at the heart of agile delivery and is one of the primary reasons organisations struggle with agile adoption: it turns out we are desperately uncomfortable with uncertainty, so much so that we will replace it with anything, even things we know to be wrong. In this talk Dan shows how we have turned our back on the original Agile Manifesto and explains why understanding risk and embracing uncertainty is fundamental to effective delivery, and also why it is so scary. He describes how Real Options and Deliberate Discovery can help make life more manageable and invites you to embrace uncertainty. He is pretty sure he won’t succeed.

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Daniel Terhorst-North

April 28, 2016
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Transcript

  1. 12.
  2. 13.

    @tastapod We fear uncertainty! Faith produces religion Complex questions produce

    simplistic answers Interpretation becomes dogma We would rather be wrong than uncertain
  3. 18.

    @tastapod So we resist uncertainty We resist - uncertainty of

    scope - uncertainty of technology - uncertainty of effort
  4. 19.

    @tastapod So we resist uncertainty We resist - uncertainty of

    scope - uncertainty of technology - uncertainty of effort - uncertainty of structure
  5. 20.

    @tastapod So we resist uncertainty We resist - uncertainty of

    scope - uncertainty of technology - uncertainty of effort - uncertainty of structure We resist uncertainty of the future
  6. 25.

    @tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are

    second order ignorant Ignorance reduces suddenly
  7. 26.

    @tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are

    second order ignorant Ignorance reduces suddenly Some unexpected bad things will happen
  8. 27.

    @tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are

    second order ignorant Ignorance reduces suddenly 
 
 Some unexpected bad things will happen
  9. 28.

    @tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are

    second order ignorant Ignorance reduces suddenly 
 
 Some unexpected bad things will happen
  10. 29.

    @tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are

    second order ignorant Ignorance reduces suddenly 
 
 Some unexpected bad things will happen
  11. 30.

    @tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are

    second order ignorant Ignorance reduces suddenly 
 
 Some unexpected bad things will happen
  12. 35.
  13. 40.

    @tastapod But you won’t believe me Confirmation bias Fundamental attribution

    error Bias bias but most of all, that craving for certainty!
  14. 45.

    @tastapod Embracing uncertainty Embrace uncertainty of scope Embrace uncertainty of

    technology Embrace uncertainty of effort Embrace uncertainty of structure