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Embracing Uncertainty

Embracing Uncertainty

Over the last few years Dan has been working with and studying teams who are dramatically more productive than anything he's ever seen. They produce in weeks what would take other teams months, and iterate in days rather than months. One of the central themes he's observed is their ability to embrace uncertainty, holding multiple contradictory opinions at the same time and deferring commitment until there is a good reason.

Uncertainty lies at the heart of agile delivery and is one of the primary reasons organisations struggle with agile adoption: it turns out we are desperately uncomfortable with uncertainty, so much so that we will replace it with anything, even things we know to be wrong. In this talk Dan shows how we have turned our back on the original Agile Manifesto and explains why understanding risk and embracing uncertainty is fundamental to effective delivery, and also why it is so scary. He describes how Real Options and Deliberate Discovery can help make life more manageable and invites you to embrace uncertainty. He is pretty sure he won’t succeed.

Daniel Terhorst-North
PRO

April 28, 2016
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Transcript

  1. Embracing Uncertainty
    Dan North
    @tastapod

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  2. @tastapod
    A tale of two communities

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  3. @tastapod
    A tale of two communities
    Bounded
    Centred

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  4. @tastapod
    A tale of two communities
    Bounded
    Centred

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  5. @tastapod
    A tale of two communities
    Bounded
    Centred

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  6. @tastapod
    A tale of two communities
    Bounded
    Centred

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  7. @tastapod
    A tale of two communities
    Bounded
    Centred

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  8. @tastapod
    A tale of two communities
    Bounded
    Centred

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  9. @tastapod
    We fear uncertainty!

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  10. @tastapod
    We fear uncertainty!
    Faith produces religion

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  11. @tastapod
    We fear uncertainty!
    Faith produces religion
    Complex questions produce simplistic answers

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  12. @tastapod
    We fear uncertainty!
    Faith produces religion
    Complex questions produce simplistic answers
    Interpretation becomes dogma

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  13. @tastapod
    We fear uncertainty!
    Faith produces religion
    Complex questions produce simplistic answers
    Interpretation becomes dogma
    We would rather be wrong than uncertain

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  14. @tastapod
    So we resist uncertainty

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  15. @tastapod
    So we resist uncertainty
    We resist

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  16. @tastapod
    So we resist uncertainty
    We resist
    - uncertainty of scope

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  17. @tastapod
    So we resist uncertainty
    We resist
    - uncertainty of scope
    - uncertainty of technology

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  18. @tastapod
    So we resist uncertainty
    We resist
    - uncertainty of scope
    - uncertainty of technology
    - uncertainty of effort

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  19. @tastapod
    So we resist uncertainty
    We resist
    - uncertainty of scope
    - uncertainty of technology
    - uncertainty of effort
    - uncertainty of structure

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  20. @tastapod
    So we resist uncertainty
    We resist
    - uncertainty of scope
    - uncertainty of technology
    - uncertainty of effort
    - uncertainty of structure
    We resist uncertainty of the future

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  21. @tastapod
    So we are kind of stuck,
    right?

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  22. @tastapod
    Deliberate Discovery

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  23. @tastapod
    Deliberate Discovery
    Ignorance is your biggest constraint

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  24. @tastapod
    Deliberate Discovery
    Ignorance is your biggest constraint
    You are second order ignorant

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  25. @tastapod
    Deliberate Discovery
    Ignorance is your biggest constraint
    You are second order ignorant
    Ignorance reduces suddenly

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  26. @tastapod
    Deliberate Discovery
    Ignorance is your biggest constraint
    You are second order ignorant
    Ignorance reduces suddenly
    Some unexpected bad things will happen

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  27. @tastapod
    Deliberate Discovery
    Ignorance is your biggest constraint
    You are second order ignorant
    Ignorance reduces suddenly


    Some unexpected bad things will happen

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  28. @tastapod
    Deliberate Discovery
    Ignorance is your biggest constraint
    You are second order ignorant
    Ignorance reduces suddenly


    Some unexpected bad things will happen

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  29. @tastapod
    Deliberate Discovery
    Ignorance is your biggest constraint
    You are second order ignorant
    Ignorance reduces suddenly


    Some unexpected bad things will happen

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  30. @tastapod
    Deliberate Discovery
    Ignorance is your biggest constraint
    You are second order ignorant
    Ignorance reduces suddenly


    Some unexpected bad things will happen

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  31. @tastapod
    Real Options

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  32. @tastapod
    Real Options
    Options have value

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  33. @tastapod
    Real Options
    Options have value
    Options expire

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  34. @tastapod
    Real Options
    Options have value
    Options expire
    Commit deliberately

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  35. @tastapod
    Real Options
    Options have value
    Options expire
    Commit deliberately
    “Never commit early unless you know why”

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  36. @tastapod
    But you won’t believe me

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  37. @tastapod
    But you won’t believe me
    Confirmation bias

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  38. @tastapod
    But you won’t believe me
    Confirmation bias
    Fundamental attribution error

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  39. @tastapod
    But you won’t believe me
    Confirmation bias
    Fundamental attribution error
    Bias bias

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  40. @tastapod
    But you won’t believe me
    Confirmation bias
    Fundamental attribution error
    Bias bias
    but most of all, that craving for certainty!

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  41. @tastapod
    Embracing uncertainty

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  42. @tastapod
    Embracing uncertainty
    Embrace uncertainty of scope

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  43. @tastapod
    Embracing uncertainty
    Embrace uncertainty of scope
    Embrace uncertainty of technology

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  44. @tastapod
    Embracing uncertainty
    Embrace uncertainty of scope
    Embrace uncertainty of technology
    Embrace uncertainty of effort

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  45. @tastapod
    Embracing uncertainty
    Embrace uncertainty of scope
    Embrace uncertainty of technology
    Embrace uncertainty of effort
    Embrace uncertainty of structure

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  46. @tastapod
    tl; dr

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  47. @tastapod
    tl; dr
    Expect the unexpected

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  48. @tastapod
    tl; dr
    Expect the unexpectable

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  49. @tastapod
    tl; dr
    Expect the unexpectable
    Anticipate ignorance

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  50. @tastapod
    tl; dr
    Expect the unexpectable
    Anticipate ignorance
    Embrace uncertainty — it’s inevitable!

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  51. Thanks for listening
    @tastapod
    http:/
    /dannorth.net
    [email protected]

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