Embracing Uncertainty

Over the last few years Dan has been working with and studying teams who are dramatically more productive than anything he's ever seen. They produce in weeks what would take other teams months, and iterate in days rather than months. One of the central themes he's observed is their ability to embrace uncertainty, holding multiple contradictory opinions at the same time and deferring commitment until there is a good reason.

Uncertainty lies at the heart of agile delivery and is one of the primary reasons organisations struggle with agile adoption: it turns out we are desperately uncomfortable with uncertainty, so much so that we will replace it with anything, even things we know to be wrong. In this talk Dan shows how we have turned our back on the original Agile Manifesto and explains why understanding risk and embracing uncertainty is fundamental to effective delivery, and also why it is so scary. He describes how Real Options and Deliberate Discovery can help make life more manageable and invites you to embrace uncertainty. He is pretty sure he won’t succeed.

Transcript

1. Embracing Uncertainty Dan North @tastapod
2. @tastapod A tale of two communities
3. @tastapod A tale of two communities Bounded Centred
4. @tastapod A tale of two communities Bounded Centred
5. @tastapod A tale of two communities Bounded Centred
6. @tastapod A tale of two communities Bounded Centred
7. @tastapod A tale of two communities Bounded Centred
8. @tastapod A tale of two communities Bounded Centred
9. @tastapod We fear uncertainty!
10. @tastapod We fear uncertainty! Faith produces religion
11. @tastapod We fear uncertainty! Faith produces religion Complex questions produce simplistic answers
12. @tastapod We fear uncertainty! Faith produces religion Complex questions produce simplistic answers Interpretation becomes dogma
13. @tastapod We fear uncertainty! Faith produces religion Complex questions produce simplistic answers Interpretation becomes dogma We would rather be wrong than uncertain
14. @tastapod So we resist uncertainty
15. @tastapod So we resist uncertainty We resist
16. @tastapod So we resist uncertainty We resist - uncertainty of scope
17. @tastapod So we resist uncertainty We resist - uncertainty of scope - uncertainty of technology
18. @tastapod So we resist uncertainty We resist - uncertainty of scope - uncertainty of technology - uncertainty of effort
19. @tastapod So we resist uncertainty We resist - uncertainty of scope - uncertainty of technology - uncertainty of effort - uncertainty of structure
20. @tastapod So we resist uncertainty We resist - uncertainty of scope - uncertainty of technology - uncertainty of effort - uncertainty of structure We resist uncertainty of the future
21. @tastapod So we are kind of stuck, right?
22. @tastapod Deliberate Discovery
23. @tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint
24. @tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant
25. @tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant Ignorance reduces suddenly
26. @tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant Ignorance reduces suddenly Some unexpected bad things will happen
27. @tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant Ignorance reduces suddenly 
 
 Some unexpected bad things will happen
28. @tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant Ignorance reduces suddenly 
 
 Some unexpected bad things will happen
29. @tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant Ignorance reduces suddenly 
 
 Some unexpected bad things will happen
30. @tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant Ignorance reduces suddenly 
 
 Some unexpected bad things will happen
31. @tastapod Real Options
32. @tastapod Real Options Options have value
33. @tastapod Real Options Options have value Options expire
34. @tastapod Real Options Options have value Options expire Commit deliberately
35. @tastapod Real Options Options have value Options expire Commit deliberately “Never commit early unless you know why”
36. @tastapod But you won’t believe me
37. @tastapod But you won’t believe me Confirmation bias
38. @tastapod But you won’t believe me Confirmation bias Fundamental attribution error
39. @tastapod But you won’t believe me Confirmation bias Fundamental attribution error Bias bias
40. @tastapod But you won’t believe me Confirmation bias Fundamental attribution error Bias bias but most of all, that craving for certainty!
41. @tastapod Embracing uncertainty
42. @tastapod Embracing uncertainty Embrace uncertainty of scope
43. @tastapod Embracing uncertainty Embrace uncertainty of scope Embrace uncertainty of technology
44. @tastapod Embracing uncertainty Embrace uncertainty of scope Embrace uncertainty of technology Embrace uncertainty of effort
45. @tastapod Embracing uncertainty Embrace uncertainty of scope Embrace uncertainty of technology Embrace uncertainty of effort Embrace uncertainty of structure
46. @tastapod tl; dr
47. @tastapod tl; dr Expect the unexpected
48. @tastapod tl; dr Expect the unexpectable
49. @tastapod tl; dr Expect the unexpectable Anticipate ignorance
50. @tastapod tl; dr Expect the unexpectable Anticipate ignorance Embrace uncertainty — it’s inevitable!
51. Thanks for listening @tastapod http:/ /dannorth.net dan@dannorth.net