POTB Site Analysis | Environmental Forces 2021

Transcript

1. SUNHOURS, TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION On average, July is the most sunny. On average, December has the lowest amount of sun- shine. A lot of rain falls in the months: January, November and De- cember. On average, December is the wettest month. On average, July is the driest month. The average amount of annual precipitation is: 36.34 in (923.0 mm) The average annual percentage of humidity is: 73.0% The months June, July, August and September have a nice average temperature. On average, the warmest month is July. On average, the coolest month is December. The average annual maximum temperature is: 62.6° Fahr- enheit (17.0° Celsius) The average annual minimum temperature is: 44.6° Fahrenheit (7.0° Cel-
2. WIND ANALYSIS PER MONTH
3. PARAGRAPH HEADING Body paragraph Body paragraph Body paragraph Body paragraph Body para- graph Body paragraph Body paragraph Body paragraph Body paragraph Body paragraph Body paragraph Body para- graph Body paragraph Body paragraph On average, the most wind is seen from November to February with winds of up to 24 mph and an average of 10.6 mph Wind direction is predominantly from the South and some from the East On average, the least wind is seen from June to September with winds of up to 20 mph and an average of 7.76 mph Wind direction is predominantly from the North- West SUMMER WINTER
4. SUNPATH
5. Universal Thermal Climate Index
6. Psychrometric Chart
7. Psychrometric Chart Passive Strategy PMV Polygons
8. FLOODING causes, management and restoration
9. To solve the original priority problems, management efforts would need to satisfy multiple objectives: to reduce flood-related hazards and damages, while minimizing the potential long-term environmental impacts and economic costs of flood control and floodplain management practices. The February 1996 flood in Tillamook County rekindled public interest in the causes and solutions to flood problems in the region. 3 original TBNEP resource management priority problems: - water quality degradation - erosion and sediment - fish & wildlife habitat loss The timing of this flood coincided with the characterization phase of the Tillamook Bay National Estuary Project (TBNEP), a process that identifies resource management issues and problems. FLOODING Tillamook Bay: history and human intervention
10. Flood control: the use of structural measures — dikes, levees, and dredging — intend- ed to eliminate flooding, with maintenance and monitoring often assigned as lower priority concerns. Flood control is not a substitute for floodplain management. The economic costs of flood control measures can be extremely high, and would need to be repeated as needed, whereas floodplain management shifts the conversation to address more long-term adaptations to reduce flood hazard. Floodplain management: more nonstructural measures to reduce flood hazard — land use planning, restoration, and public education — with the understanding that not all flooding can be eliminated and that long-term management and monitoring is necessary and will result in the evolution of effective flood hazard reduction. FLOODING control & management
11. Four distinct types of flood situations in the Tillamook basin (1) estuarine tidal flooding of low-lying areas that flood throughout the year Most urban development in Tillamook is on the second bottom floodplains that have the least risk of flooding. The most significant flooding in Tillamook Bay and the river valleys occurs when river flooding combines with tidal flooding. (2) riverine bankfull floods (flooding to the tops of natural streambanks) that have a chance of occurring about once a year (3) first bottom floodplains floods that have a chance of occurring every 2-50 years (4) second bottom floodplain floods that occur less frequently with a 50 to 5,000-year return period FLOODING regional variants
12. Significant population increase (which was accompanied by repeated burns, deforestation, and the construction of salvage logging roads) led to encroachment into floodplain areas, disrupting the infiltration and water storage capacity of the upland areas. The loss of this natural flood attenuation mechanism increased the frequency and quantity of runoff and sediment delivery from heavy rainfall events. Many of the flood problems in the Tillamook Bay region result from human settlements developing on or near the low-lying river deltas and valleys along the margins of the Bay. roots in human intervention FLOODING
13. Historically, forested floodplains provided woody debris to the lower river and Bay ecosystems, which added complexity to river patterns and nutrients to the rivers and helped to nurture and sustain fish populations. The forests slowed and regulated flooding across the valley floodplains, reduced erosion, and encouraged soil deposition. Attempts to control flooding have reduced the natural complexity of river channels and have separated the rivers from their floodplains. roots in human intervention FLOODING
14. The natural process of flooding laid down wide expanses of fertile soils over time. An early account of the landscape summarizes this thought: “Dairying was a natural for Tillamook. The lush green pasture lands that the first settlers found seemed to be asking for cows to complete the pastoral picture.” Tillamook Bay communities and agricultural interests have developed and prospered to a large extent because of the natural evolution of river floodplains, which now sustain human activities. roots in human intervention FLOODING
15. River flooding tends to occur in December and January during periods of heavy rainfall or snowmelt, or a combination of both. River flooding combined with tidal flooding can extend the flood season from November to February. The lowland valleys are the most prone to flooding during these periods. Many of these flood control structures, built to protect pasture lands from salt water inundation during tidal flooding, have also blocked the natural ability of the river floodplains to spread out flood waters, slowing and storing flood water volumes flowing from the watersheds. One primary natural function of a floodplain is to store and “slow down” flood waters during floods. By impeding peak flood flows, natural floodplains tend to lower flood elevations downstream and, correspondingly, reduce flood hazards. roots in human intervention FLOODING
16. The frequency of significant flooding seems to be increasing in the region. This trend may be attributed to the increasing human population and associated developments, some of which are occurring in flood hazard areas. As another result of climate change, long-term flood mitigation strategies will need to consider rising sea levels. Tillamook is being inundated by rising sea level at a rate of about 2 millimeters per year — one of the most significant locations on the Oregon coast. On a global level, climate change will probably change runoff patterns, with less and earlier runoff from snowmelt and more runoff from rainfall (Roos 1995). These potential trends in climate may dictate the need for flexible flood mitigation strategies that can accommodate changing local flood characteristics. Sea level trends future trends FLOODING
17. A review of the flood history for the Tillamook Bay region, as well as other flood- prone areas in the United States, leads to the conclusion that the costly and extensive structural methods of flood control advocated throughout this century are simply not reducing flood damages. The concept of working with the river’s own natural functions to manage floods is replacing the concept of intervening in these processes to try to control floods. Interest is growing in non-structural floodplain management methods, such as enforcing land use ordinances and restoring the floodplains. management alternatives FLOODING
18. Unaltered streams in natural lowland valley bottoms often meander through rich forested wetlands. These naturally meandering channels and adjacent wetlands typically have more frequent flooding, but lower flood peaks than human-altered streams and floodplains in similar geomorphic settings (Shields and Cooper 1994). Flood waves traveling through valley streams with natural riparian wetland floodplains have been observed to rise more gradually, to lower elevations, and to last longer than floods occurring on altered floodplains, which produced sharper, higher, and flashy flood conditions (Shields and Cooper 1994). This indicates natural riparian wetlands distribute flood flows and store water for slower release. floodplain restoration FLOODING
19. The reconnection of floodplain riparian areas and intertidal wetlands to the rivers in the Tillamook Bay valleys may help reduce erosion and flood hazards by reducing the height of flood waters constrained between levees and dikes. Historic mapping of the Tillamook Valley floodplains prior to European settlement indicates the historic floodplain landscape was much different than today. This information implies that the pastoral landscapes seen today in the river valleys were once heavily vegetated and complex forest lands which flooded often. floodplain restoration FLOODING
20. riparian corridor restoration (encouraging the growth of coarse woody vegetation in floodplains to slow the progress of a flood wave) The restoration and conservation of floodplain lands presents opportunities to reduce flood hazards while restoring the natural functioning of the river and floodplain. Conceptual measures for floodplain restoration that may be appropriate for Tillamook Bay rivers include: floodplain terrace restoration (increasing the flow area of a degraded river channel while restoring the natural seasonal channel-floodplain interconnections) agricultural levee set-backs (increasing the dis- tance of levees from riverbanks to provide wider floodplain channels while still protecting agricul- tural lands) flood detention with bermed storage (lowering, shaping and strengthening levees into low-eleva- tion berms that protect interior lands from frequent flood events, but overflow and detain portions of more severe flooding) FLOODING floodplain restoration
21. Restoring floodplain vegetation can improve water quality by: · decreasing water temperatures by shading and cooling water · reducing suspended sediment through filtration by plant material and reducing flood flow velocities and erosion · removing soluble water pollutants through biological uptake by plant material Restoring overbank floodplain flows can improve water quantities by: · increasing floodplain groundwater infiltration from the river in the winter, subsequently increasing the seepage of cool groundwater back to the river to augment summer low flows · recharging surface aquifers for local water supplies · reducing evaporation losses from stored water supplies in floodplain aquifers keystone species beaver otter salmon cormorant floodplain restoration FLOODING
22. According to Passive House Institute US (PHIUS), a climate pin can be used for a site if it is within a 50 mile radius and within 300-400 feet of elevation. Astoria’s pin is just about exactly 50 miles from the Tillamook site, and both are very close to sea level. Thus, our Tillamook site falls within Climate Zone 4C, and the heating and cooling demands (annual and peak) are listed above. PASSIVE HOUSE CLIMATE ZONE
23. The Juan de Fuca Plate descends beneath the North American Plate, creating the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). This creates major earthquake events (magnitude 8-9) roughly every 300-400 years; it has been 319 since the last one. In addition to the shaking of the earth, the tsunamis that will inundate the coast pose an equally menacing threat. earthquake (Figure YY). The most common sources of the largest tsunamis are ea subduction zones like the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), where an oceanic pla continental plate (Figure YY). Other important processes that may trigger a tsuna volcanic eruptions and landslides (includes landslides that start below the water that enter a deep body of water from above the water surface). Tsunamis can tra across ocean basins, so that a particular coastal area may be susceptible to two d tsunami hazard caused by: 1. Distant sources across the ocean basin, and 2. Local sources that occur immediately adjacent to a coast. Figure YY. Generation of a Tsunami by Subduction Zone Earthquake Tsunami Generation Subduction Zone During an Earthquake Between Earthquakes Minutes Later One of the many plates that make up the earth’s outer shell descends, or “subducts”, under an adjacent plate. This kind of boundary is called a subduction zone. When the plates move suddenly in an area where they usually stick, an earthquake happens. An earthquake along a subduction zone happens when the leading edge of the overriding plate breaks free and springs seaward, raising the sea floor and the water above it. This uplift starts a tsunami. Meanwhile, the bulge behind the leading edge collapses, flexing the plate downward and lowering the coastal area. Stuck to the subducting plate, the overriding plate gets squeezed. Its leading edge is dragged down, while an area behind bulges upward. This movement goes on for decades or centuries, slowly building up stress. Part of the tsunami races toward nearby land, growing taller as it comes in to shore. Another part heads across the ocean toward distant shores.
24. This map predicts the extend of tsunami inundation in the event of a magnitude 9 earthquake, as is predicted with the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). Experts give the Oregon Coast a 37% of the “big one” hitting in the next 50 years. The biggest weakness Oregon currently faces is in its infrastructure - many buildings, bridges, and roads are expected to fail. Contingency plans are necessary to prevent the worst of the damage and loss of life. Tsunami Inundation
25. “These communities are often referred to as the “wildland-urban interface” (WUI), the area where structures and other human development meet or intermingle with natural vegetative fuels.”
26. Enright Garibaldi Jordan Creek Manzanita Mohler Wheeler Aldervale Barnesdale Batterson Nehalem Pacific City Beaver Blaine Cape Meares Cloverdale Happy Hollow Hebo Hemlock Meda Neskowin Netarts Oceanside Pleasant Valley Sand Lake Bay City Barview Brighton Rockaway Beach Tierra Del Mar Neahkahnie £ [ 101 £ [ 101 Nestucca Bay Sand Lake Tillamook Bay Nehalem Bay Netarts Bay Tillamook ¬ « 18 ¬ « 130 ¬ « 131 £ [ 101 ¬ « 53 ¬ « 6 0 5 10 2.5 Miles Source Data: Wildfire Risk Data: Oregon Department of Forestry (2013) Roads: Tillamook County Assessor GIS (2009) Place names: USGS Geograpic Names Information System (2015) City Limits: Geographic Information Services (GIS) Unit, Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) Hillshade: USGS & Oregon Lidar Consortium Appendix C: Plate 5 R. Watzig & M. Williams, DOGAMI, 2016 60% 60% tŝůĚĮƌĞZŝƐŬ Low Moderate High tŝůĚĮƌĞZŝƐŬ POLKCO. LINCOLNCOUNTY YAMHILLCOUNTY YAMHILLCOUNTY WASHINGTONCOUNTY CLATSOPCOUNTY P A C I F I C O C E A N tŝůĚĮƌĞZŝƐŬŝƐĐĂƚĞŐŽƌŝnjĞĚĂƐ>Žǁ͕ DŽĚĞƌĂƚĞĂŶĚ,ŝŐŚĂŶĚŝŶĚŝĐĂƚĞƐƚŚĞ ůĞǀĞůŽĨƌŝƐŬĂůŽĐĂƟŽŶŚĂƐƚŽǁŝůĚĮƌĞ ŚĂnjĂƌĚ͘dŚĞtŝůĚĮƌĞZŝƐŬĚĂƚĂůĂLJĞƌ ;&ŝƌĞZŝƐŬ/ŶĚĞdžͿŝƐĚĞƌŝǀĞĚĨƌŽŵĂ ĐŽŵďŝŶĂƟŽŶŽĨƚŚĞ&ŝƌĞdŚƌĞĂƚ/ŶĚĞdž ;ĮƌĞŚŝƐƚŽƌLJĂŶĚďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌͿĂŶĚƚŚĞ&ŝƌĞ īĞĐƚƐ/ŶĚĞdž;ŝŶĨƌĂƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞĂŶĚĂƐƐĞƚƐͿ͘ Wheeler Tillamook Rockaway Beach Nehalem Manzanita Garibaldi Bay City PaciĮc City* Oceanside & Netarts* Neskowin* Tillamook Co. (rural)* ΎhŶŝŶĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚĞĚŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJ tŝůĚĮƌĞƵŝůĚŝŶŐdžƉŽƐƵƌĞ ZĂƟŽŽĨdžƉŽƐĞĚsĂůƵĞƚŽdŽƚĂůƵŝůĚŝŶŐsĂůƵĞ According to the Tillamook County Community Wildfire Protection Plan ( CWPP, 2006), the leading cause of fires in Tillamook County is recreation, primarily due to escaped, abandoned, or unattended warming or cooking fires. Fires caused by recreation are most prevalent during major holidays, extremely hot weather, school breaks and hunting season. The second leading cause is debris burning, both general and slash pile burning. There are a number of reasons for this; from inadequate clearing, inability to control, failure to recognize the severity of burning conditions, burning prohibited material, failure to follow permit instructions, inadequate mop-up, and inattention. Escaped slash burning accounts for a small percentage of the number of fires, but impacts a large area. And finally, the third leading cause is equipment use. Sparks or friction from the rigging and the cable system of logging equipment have caused fires. Wildfire Risk Wildfire risk varies based on proximity to the coast, and associated rain/wind.
27. Disaster Preparedness Case Study Considering the Leverage Points In December 2016, the ODOT and OHA published “How Tillamook Weathered the Storm: A Case Study on Creating Climate Resilience on Oregon’s North Coast”. The following slides consider the findings through the lens of Donella Meadows’ “Leverage Points” - are our solutions for climate resilience having a maximum impact, or are there other solutions higher on the systems chain that would serve us even better?
28. Disaster Preparedness Case Study Considering the Leverage Points 1 Communication is Key to Safety 2 Connect Leaders to Integrate Emergency Response Efforts 3 Reach Beyond Everyday Boundaries 4 Build Community Capacity and Social Cohesion Refers to the use of social media, email distribution lists, radio and TV as an early warning system in the event of an imminent threat. Note: possibly applies to high wind and rain, wildfires, possibly others; does not apply to unforeseen disasters like earthquakes. Incident Command Team (ICT) is made up of leaders from Office of Emergency Management, County Roads, fire districts, and police departments. These personnel have a permanent “dispatch center”, used as a central command station to coordinate relief efforts. Traditional beaurocratic red tape can be sidelined in the interest of time and efficiency. Example: a fire department, ODOT personnel, county representatives, or the local utility district might be summoned to clear a downed tree across a road way, regardless of jurisdictional borders. Strong networks of community support, especially a prevalence of volunteer networks. If local residents know their neighbors and there is a sense of social unity, more people will step up to help in times of crisis.
29. Disaster Preparedness Case Study Considering the Leverage Points 5 Help the Helpers 6 Maintenance Matters 7 Learn from Successes and Surprises 8 When the Emergency Ends, the Work Doesn’t Simply refers to added community support for those on the front lines - county workers, police and fire units, ODOT crews, EMTs, etc. This could come in the form of food, volunteering to help in the work, covering shifts so others can sleep, etc. Revolves around making sure infrastructure is sound and resilient. This note requires more preventative measures than the other lessons; authorities must diagnose problems with roads, bridges, etc before disaster threatens. After the threat from distaster has subsided, meet with community members and stakeholders to evaluate practices that worked and those that didn’t. Take these lessons forward. The aftermath of disaster involves cleanup, housing and feeding those that have lost their homes and/or their livelihood, raising money for communities, caring for the injured/ sick, and safeguarding against future disasters.
30. Disaster Preparedness Case Study Considering the Leverage Points ARE THESE THE MOST EFFECTIVE STRATEGIES?
31. Disaster Preparedness Case Study Considering the Leverage Points 1 Communication is Key to Safety 2 Connect Leaders to Integrate Emergency Response Efforts 3 Reach Beyond Everyday Boundaries 4 Build Community Capacity and Social Cohesion Refers to the use of social media, email distribution lists, radio and TV as an early warning system in the event of an imminent threat. Note: possibly applies to high wind and rain, wildfires, possibly others; does not apply to unforeseen disasters like earthquakes. Incident Command Team (ICT) is made up of leaders from Office of Emergency Management, County Roads, fire districts, and police departments. These personnel have a permanent “dispatch center”, used as a central command station to coordinate relief efforts. Traditional beaurocratic red tape can be sidelined in the interest of time and efficiency. Example: a fire department, ODOT personnel, county representatives, or the local utility district might be summoned to clear a downed tree across a road way, regardless of jurisdictional borders. Strong networks of community support, especially a prevalence of volunteer networks. If local residents know their neighbors and there is a sense of social unity, more people will step up to help in times of crisis. Most of these fall under a “negative feedback loop” Leverage Point 8 (out of 12)
32. Disaster Preparedness Case Study Considering the Leverage Points 5 Help the Helpers 6 Maintenance Matters 7 Learn from Successes and Surprises 8 When the Emergency Ends, the Work Doesn’t Simply refers to added community support for those on the front lines - county workers, police and fire units, ODOT crews, EMTs, etc. This could come in the form of food, volunteering to help in the work, covering shifts so others can sleep, etc. Revolves around making sure infrastructure is sound and resilient. This note requires more preventative measures than the other lessons; authorities must diagnose problems with roads, bridges, etc before disaster threatens. After the threat from distaster has subsided, meet with community members and stakeholders to evaluate practices that worked and those that didn’t. Take these lessons forward. The aftermath of disaster involves cleanup, housing and feeding those that have lost their homes and/or their livelihood, raising money for communities, caring for the injured/ sick, and safeguarding against future disasters. “The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure” (Leverage Point 4) “The ability to self-organize is the strongest form of system resilience.”
33. Disaster Preparedness Case Study Considering the Leverage Points DISCUSSION: How can resilience systems self-organize to better confront climate disasters?
34. Disaster Preparedness Case Study Considering the Leverage Points DISCUSSION: How can resilience systems self-organize to better confront climate disasters? Geopolitical measures: laws, regulations, zoning requirements Super-resilient buildings: designed for seismic, fire, floods, tsunamis, wind Gradual de-establishment of communities in the danger zone Other ideas? Estabished community evacuation shelters: organized locales supplied with food, water, sleeping quarters, medicine, etc.