2019 Colliers International 40th Annual Seminar - Connecting the Dots

On Thursday, January 10th, 2019, Colliers International | Boston celebrated its 40th Annual Trends in the Real Estate Market Seminar. Originally founded in 1979, the event has grown tremendously over the years as a forum to provide the real estate community with thoughtful content, educational market overviews and solid networking opportunities, and the 40th year was no exception.

Transcript

1. Colliers International’s 40th Annual Trends in the Real Estate Market Seminar Boston Convention & Exhibition Center January 10, 2019
2. WELCOME & KICK-OFF TOM HYNES, CO-CHAIRMAN CELEBRATING 40 YEARS
4. DAVID GOODHUE, EXECUTIVE MANAGING DIRECTOR BOSTON MARKET LEADER WELCOME & KICK-OFF
5. LOCAL CONDITIONS Jeff black | capital markets Lauren Vecchione | urban brokerage BOSTON MARKET OVERVIEW
6. of the top home to biopharma companies BIOPHARMA CLUSTER RECORD HIGH DEMAND
7. Tenant: Landlord: Size: 900,000 SF CAMBRIDGE CHICAGO
8. $600+ MILLION
9. 10.2m SF V 9.2m SF 2008 11.1m SF V 12.5m SF 2018 CAMBRIDGE MARKET GROWTH OFFICE +8.8% lab +35.5%
10. CAMBRIDGE
11. Suburban Life Science Demand NEW LAB TENANTS WOBURN LEXINGTON WALTHAM WATERTOWN
12. Suburban Lab Scarcity Presidential Way WOBURN +/- 100,000 SF SPEC LAB SPACE 195 & 200 West Street WALTHAM +/- 100,000 SF LAB CONVERSION 9%Of Total inventory
13. CABOT Business PARK ROYALL STREET | CAnTON
14. SUBURBS
15. In-Migration Existing Growth BOSTON DEMAND
16. BOSTON
17. CAPITAL MARKET DEMAND
18. 1.50 1.70 1.90 2.10 2.30 2.50 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80 2.90 3.00 3.10 3.20 3.30 Yield TREASURY YIELDS vs. LIBOR 2018 10-year LIBOR
20. Sovereign Wealth & LONG-Term HOLDS 1 500 BOYLSTON 222 BERKELEY 745 ATLAntic 121 SEAPORT 75 State 501 BOYlston
21. Rise of The family office 2
22. Opportunity zones 3 “I look forward to working with our congressional delegation and local officials to support these new economic development opportunities across the Commonwealth.” Governor Charlie Baker @MassGovernor 20 Apr 2018
23. Market disruptors 4
24. GETTING EXPOSURE TO CLASS A PRODUCT
25. SELECT DEBT FUND PLAYERS
28. URBANIZATION TODAY 2050
29. URBAN allure SAN FRANCISCO NYC LONDON BOSTON
30. YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Lease Structuring Trends packages
31. 2 Drydock AVENUE PARKSIDE ON A Winthrop SPEC/FUTURE DEVELOPMENT 2020 2021 2022+ BULFINCH CROSSING BACK BAY SOUTH END GATEWAY
32. 2 Drydock AVENUE
33. CAMBRIDGE CROSSING THE BEAT SUFFOLK DOWNS XMBLY
34. ALLSTON’s NEXUS Enterprise Research Campus @ HARVARD ALLSTON YARDS
35. ACRES UNITS STEPS TO COMMUTER RAIL STATION WALK SCORE MARKET RATE FULLY ENTITLED AND PERMIT READY
37. downtown quincy development
38. and growing…
40. SOUTH BOSTON BOSTON CAMBRIDGE SOMERVILLE
42. 10 11.4 9.7 9.5 9.5 9.1 7.8 8.2 7.6 7.7 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.4 6.1 6.0 6.4 6.5 6.9 6.9 6.4 6.2 5.5 5.7 6.8 6.8 6.1 6.4 5.0 4.7 4.9 5.3 5.2 4.6 5.1 3.8 4.0 4.1 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.2 3.2 3.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Years Central London - Average Lease Length vs Period to Initial Break Avg Lease Length Avg period to initial break
47. SUBURBAN CONVERSION TRIPLE DIGIT RENT$ Opportunity Zone EXPLORATION REFIS ON THE RISE Predictions for 2019
48. JESSICA SAWYER, EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT OPERATIONS GLOBAL CONNECTIONS INTRODUCTION
49. A A R O N J O D KA COLLIERS boston GLOBAL CONNECTIONS MODERATOR PANELISTS COLLIERS LONDON S H A U N S I M O N S COLLIERS SAN FRANCISCO JA Y S TE RN B E RG COLLIERS NEW YORK F RANK W ALLAC H COLLIERS BOSTON CUR TI S CO L E PANEL DISCUSSION
50. TENANT MIGRATION
51. CURTIS COLE | BOSTON
52. SHAUN SIMONS | LONDON
53. SHAUN SIMONS | LONDON CITY FRINGE OFFICE MARKET AS OF JAN ‘19 Total Office Stock (SF) 18.7M SF 2018 Take-up vs 10 Year Avg +31% Prime Rent £65-85 PSF ($83 - $108 psf) Grade A Vacancy Rate 1.8% All Grade Vacancy Rate 6.4% All Grade Availability (SF) 1.2M SF > The City Fringe has become synonymous with characterful workspace as well as fully specified modern & flexible office product. > The 'Shoreditch Triangle' has fast become an international centre for technology and digital media. > The district is diverse, ranging from warehouses, to creative workspaces, to new landmark developments. > Media and Tech continues to account for close to 50% of demand but flexible providers remain acquisitive at 20%.
54. JAY STERNBERG | SAN FRANCISCO VS.
55. JAY STERNBERG | SAN FRANCISCO 2000 92K SF 42K SF
56. JAY STERNBERG | SAN FRANCISCO 2001-2005 1.3M SF 988K SF
57. JAY STERNBERG | SAN FRANCISCO 2006-2010 6.3M SF 2.5M SF
58. JAY STERNBERG | SAN FRANCISCO 2011-2015 13.1M SF 10.5M SF
59. JAY STERNBERG | SAN FRANCISCO 2016-2018 16.6M SF 23.4M SF
60. FRANK WALLACH | NEW YORK $74.63 $73.45 $96.71 $75.64 $64.88 $/SF asking rents as of q4 2018 MIDTOWN MIDTOWN SOUTH DOWNTOWN
61. FRANK WALLACH | NEW YORK $/SF asking rents as of q4 2018 $115.30 $59.10 $63.12 $82.21 $87.37 $79.29 $89.26 $82.21 MIDTOWN MIDTOWN SOUTH DOWNTOWN
62. FRANK WALLACH | NEW YORK $66.82 $55.04 $55.99 $68.68 $56.09 $/SF asking rents as of q4 2018 MIDTOWN MIDTOWN SOUTH DOWNTOWN
63. A A R O N J O D KA COLLIERS boston GLOBAL CONNECTIONS MODERATOR PANELISTS COLLIERS LONDON S H A U N S I M O N S COLLIERS SAN FRANCISCO JA Y S T ERN B ERG COLLIERS NEW YORK FRANK W ALLAC H COLLIERS BOSTON CUR T I S CO L E PANEL DISCUSSION
64. INSIDER PERSPECTIVE BRYAN J. KOOP, EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT BOSTON REGION KEYNOTE PRESENTATION
65. THANK YOU. Please stay and join us for a cocktail reception. 40th 40th