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Market Trends Analysis 2019/05/14
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あれっくす@マンハッタンコード
May 14, 2019
Research
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Market Trends Analysis 2019/05/14
2019/05/14に開催したCareerUppersBoostで発表した資料です
1. 不況の話
2. 2020年以降の経済
3. 国内のIT業界動向
あれっくす@マンハッタンコード
May 14, 2019
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Transcript
Presented by Alex Manhattan Code Inc. Market trends analysis ܦࡁࢢ༧ଌ
1. Recession - ෆگͷ 2. TimeLine - 2020Ҏ߱ͷܦࡁ 3. MicroEconomy - ࠃͷITۀքಈ For CareerUppersBoost in Shibuya 2019/5/14
2. TimeLine - 2020Ҏ߱ͷܦࡁ ɾ2020ͬͯͲΜͳʁ ɾফඅ੫10ˋ࣌ͷ౸དྷ ɾੈք͔Βݟͨຊ ɾւ֎͔Βͷෆͳ͓खࢴ ɾຊΛࢧ͑Δ࢈ۀ ɾ·ͱΊ
1. Recession - ෆگͷ ɾෆگͱʁ ɾ͓ۚͱσβΠϯ ɾ͓ۚͷߦํ ɾෆگͷຊͷ ɾ·ͱΊ Index 3. MicroEconomy - ࠃͷITۀքಈ ɾTimely News ɾւ֎ͷITؔ࿈ਓࡐͷಈ͖ ɾࠃͷITؔ࿈ਓࡐͷಈ͖ ɾ10ޙΛݱ࣮తʹߟ͑Δ ɾ·ͱΊ
Yu Alexender Iimura CEO Manhattan Code Inc. 20063݄ʙ20083݄ɹۚ༥ձࣾͰӦۀ 20084݄ʙ20123݄ɹதݎSIerʹͯSE 20124݄ʙ20163݄ɹݸਓࣄۀओͰΤϯδχΞ
20163݄ʙݱࡏɹɹɹɹManhattanCodeInc. ઃཱ Twitter @MHTCode_Alex
1. Recession - ෆگͷ ෆگͱͲΜͳঢ়ଶͳͷ͔ΛΔ Speech program Start Speech
2. TimeLine - 2020Ҏ߱ͷܦࡁ ɾ2020ͬͯͲΜͳʁ ɾফඅ੫10ˋ࣌ͷ౸དྷ ɾੈք͔Βݟͨຊ ɾւ֎͔Βͷෆͳ͓खࢴ ɾຊΛࢧ͑Δ࢈ۀ ɾ·ͱΊ
1. Recession - ෆگͷ ɾෆگͱʁ ɾ͓ۚͱσβΠϯ ɾ͓ۚͷߦํ ɾෆگͷຊͷ ɾ·ͱΊ Index 3. MicroEconomy - ࠃͷITۀքಈ ɾTimely News ɾւ֎ͷITؔ࿈ਓࡐͷಈ͖ ɾࠃͷITؔ࿈ਓࡐͷಈ͖ ɾ10ޙΛݱ࣮తʹߟ͑Δ ɾ·ͱΊ
ಥવͰ͕͢ ෆگͬͯԿͷ͜ͱ͔ͩΘ͔Γ·͔͢ʁ
ෆگΛௐͯΈͨ ;‐͖ΐ͏ʤ‐ΩϠʥʲෆگʳ ܠؾ॥ͷҰہ໘Ͱɺܦࡁ͕ఀ͍ͯ͠Δঢ়ଶɻޏ༻ྔɾ ੜ࢈ྔͳͲͷॖখɺՁɾۚརࢠͳͲ͕͍ਫ४ Λଓ͚Δɻ㱻گɻ Ҿ༻ɿσδλϧେࣙઘ
ෆگΛௐͯΈͨ ʁ
ཁ… ͓͕ۚফ͑ͯ͠·ͬͯ ͑ͳ͍ͬͯ͜ͱͰ͢ͶɺΘ͔Γ·͢☺
ͬͯ ⚠‼
͓ۚফ͑ͳ͍ ͓ۚͷॴ༗ݖ͕Ҡಈ͢Δ͚ͩͰ ͓ۚ৯ࡐͷΑ͏ʹফඅͯ͠ফ͑ͨΓ͠ͳ͍
ෆگ ͓ۚΛ͍͍σβΠϯͷੈք Bad design of money. گ ͓ۚΛ͍қ͍σβΠϯͷੈք Good design
of money. ෆگͱ͍͏ͷ͓ۚͷσβΠϯ͕มԽͨ͠ঢ়ଶͷ͜ͱ
Facility - ઃඋ ෆศͷղফ ɾෆศ͞Λফͨ͢Ίʹݹ͍ઃඋͷߋ৽ ɺෆಈ࢈ͳͲͷݻఆࢿ࢈ͷΓ͑Λ ߦ͏ Stock - ஷۚ
ෆ҆ͷղফ ɾফඅ͕ා͘ͳΓඞཁ࠷ݶͷͷ͔͠ ങΘͳ͘ͳΔ ෆگ࣌ͷ͓ۚͷߦํ Business - اۀങऩ ࠳ંͷडೖ ɾఘΊͯ৬ͦͷͷΛख์ͯ͠͠·͏ ݱ͕ۚ͋ΔΑ͏ʹݟ͑Δ ࢿ࢈͕͋ΔΑ͏ʹݟ͑Δ ͓ۚखʹೖΔ͕తΛݟࣦ͏
ෆگͰ ඈͿΑ͏ʹചΕΔ͋Δ͠ɺ ͓ۚΛ͍࣋ͬͯΔاۀਓԿॲ͔ʹ͍Δ ྫʣंɾՈిɾύιίϯɾiPhone
ෆگͷຊͷ తΛ࣋ͨͳ͍͓͕ۚࢢͷେΛΊΔͨΊɺ اۀਓ෦తͳΛ͠ʹ͘͘ͳΔ ࣅ͍ͯΔͱͯ͠ϑΝογϣϯͱμΠΤοτ͕͋Δ
Cool ͋ͷ༸͕ண͍ͨʂ ͜ΜͳϑΝογϣϯ͕͍ͨ͠ʂ ʹର͢Δత͕͋Δ μΠΤοτΛ͠Α͏ τϨʔχϯάΛ͢Δ ৯ੜ׆Λݟͦ͏ ັྗతʹͳΔ ෦తͳݟࠐΉ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δ Ugly
ଠ͓ͬͯෲग़ͪΌͬͨʂ ࣋ͬͯΔ༸Λങ͍ͦ͏ʂ ʹର͢Δత͕ͳ͍ Λങ͍͑Δ ͦΕͳΓʹྑ͍ͷങ͑അࣛʹ͞Εͳ͍ ߹ͷྑ͍ͷ͔Γ୳͢Α͏ʹͳΔ μα͍ࣗʹؾ͚ͮͳ͍ ෦తͳ͕Ͱ͖ͣਓͷ͕ؾʹͳΔ
ෆگͰஷΊ͍͓͕ͯͨۚᷓΕग़͢ͱɺܠؾަہ໘Λܴ͑گͱมΘΔ ɾ੫ۚേήʔϜ͕͋ΔͷͰ͍ͭ·Ͱ͓ۚΛஷΊ͓ͯ͘͜ͱͰ͖ͳ͍ ɾෆಈ࢈ࢿઃඋࢿʹݶք͕๚ΕΔ ɾ৬Λࣦͬͨਓ͕ͨͪԿ͔ผͷ͜ͱΛΓ࢝ΊΔ ʢͨͩ͠ɺෆگ࣌ʹతΛ์ஔͯ͠τϨʔχϯάΛαϘ͍ͬͯΔͱگ࣌ʹԿग़དྷͳ͘ͳΔʣ ෆگͱ͍͏ͷঢ়ଶͷมԽ
·ͱΊ ɾ͓ۚফ͑ͳ͍ɻෆگʹ͓ۚΛ͍͍σβΠϯͷੈք ɾෆگ࣌ʹෆ҆ෆศΛղফ͠ɺ࠳ંΛड͚ೖΕΔͨΊʹ͓ۚΘΕΔ ɾෆگͰചΕͯΔ͋Δ͠ɺ͓ۚΛ͍࣋ͬͯΔاۀਓ͍Δ ɾ͍ͭ·Ͱෆگଓ͔ͳ͍ͷͰඞͣگͷ͕࣌๚ΕΔ ෆگͷ
Step #2 2. TimeLine - 2020Ҏ߱ͷܦࡁ Ͳ͏͍͏ੈքʁ
2. TimeLine - 2020Ҏ߱ͷܦࡁ ɾ2020ͬͯͲΜͳʁ ɾফඅ੫10ˋ࣌ͷ౸དྷ ɾੈք͔Βݟͨຊ ɾւ֎͔Βͷෆͳ͓खࢴ ɾຊΛࢧ͑Δ࢈ۀ ɾ·ͱΊ
1. Recession - ෆگͷ ɾෆگͱʁ ɾ͓ۚͱσβΠϯ ɾ͓ۚͷߦํ ɾෆگͷຊͷ ɾ·ͱΊ Index 3. MicroEconomy - ࠃͷITۀքಈ ɾTimely News ɾւ֎ͷITؔ࿈ਓࡐͷಈ͖ ɾࠃͷITؔ࿈ਓࡐͷಈ͖ ɾ10ޙΛݱ࣮తʹߟ͑Δ ɾ·ͱΊ
2020Ҏ߱ͷ͓ 2020ͬͯͲΜͳͰ͠ΐ͏͔ʁ
ͲΜͳ͜ͱ͕ͬͯΔ͔ ɾ࠷ޙͷηϯλʔࢼݧ͕࣮ࢪ ɾ̑G͕༻αʔϏε։࢝ ɾ౦ژΦϦϯϐοΫ։࠵ ɾখֶߍͰϓϩάϥϛϯάڭҭ͕࢝·Δ ɾAdobe Flashͷఏڙऴྃ 2020ͬͯͲΜͳʁ
201910݄͔Βফඅ੫8%→10%ͷҾ্͖͕͛։࢝͞ΕΔ ɾ3%→5%ɺ5%→8%ͷҾ্͖͛࣌ͦΕͧΕࠃͷফඅ͕ճ෮͢Δͷ͕2΄Ͳ͔͔ͬͨ ɾ2ؒϞϊ͕ചΕͣڅྉ্͕Βͳ͍ʢ2020ΦϦϯϐοΫऴྃޙ͔Β2022·Ͱʣ ɾ3͔ΒͬͱϞϊ͕ചΕ࢝Ίɺڅྉ্͕Γ࢝ΊΔʢ2023͔Βফඅ͕ճ෮͢Δʣ ɾ4Ͱճ෮࿏ઢʹೖΔʢ2024͕Ք͗࣌ʣ ɾ5Ͱফඅ੫12%Ҿ্͖͕͛ݕ౼͞ΕͯΔ͚Ͳେৎʁʢ2025Ͱ·ͨམͪΔͱ༧ଌ͞ΕͯΔʣ ফඅ੫10%࣌ͷ౸དྷ
ຊͷ1%ະຬ ɾOECDͷൃදͩͱੈքܦࡁͷ2019ͰϐʔΫʹୡͨ͠ʢ2019ͷੈքฏۉ3.5% / ຊ1.0%ʣ ɾ20180.9%ɺ20191.0%ɺ20200.7% ɾIMFʹΑΔͱGDP20190.98ͷͩͬͨͷ͕ɺ2024ʹ0.52ʢ53ˋݮʣ ɾIMFʹΑΔͱG7Ͱ།Ұຊ͚͕ͩGDPϚΠφεʢ2016͔Β2017ʹ͔͚ͯ0.5→-0.1ʣ ɹ ੈք͔Βݟͨຊ
࣍ͷෆگ͓ͦΒ͘৽ڵࠃಉ࣌ܦࡁෆگ͕Ҿ͖ۚʁ ɾࠃࡍܾࡁۜߦBISͷ౷ܭͰτϧίλΠͳͲͷ৽ڵࠃ20Χࠃͷෛ࠴2005ͷ3ഒʢ2017࣌ʣ ɾࠃࡍ௨՟جۚIMFʹΑΔͱΞϝϦΧൃͷϦʔϚϯγϣοΫʹىҼ͓ͯۚ͠৽ڵࠃʹྲྀΕͨͱ2017ʹൃද ɾ1990ͷෆಈ࢈όϒϧຊ͕Ҿ͖͚ۚͩͬͨͲɺ1997ͷΞδΞ௨՟ةػϦʔϚϯγϣοΫւ֎ൃ ෆگ10पظ 1990ɹෆಈ࢈όϒϧ 1997ɹΞδΞ௨՟ةػ 2008ɹϦʔϚϯγϣοΫ 2018ɹʁʁʁ ւ֎͔Βͷෆͷ͓खࢴ
ඒ͍͠ը૾Λָ͓͠Έ͍ͩ͘͞ ෆگͱ͔ෆܠؾͱ͔ා͍ଓ͘ΑͶʙ ໌Δ͍χϡʔεΛ͘Ε ҉͍͏ͨ͘͞Μͩ ςϯγϣϯ͕ΨϯԼ͛ʹͳΔΑͶʙ
ࠃͰଉͯ͠Δ࢈ۀ3ͭ ɾ࠷ऴͷ࡞Εͳ͍෦࢈ۀ ɾຊޠʹΑΔඇޮͳࣄࣄ ɾ؍ޫ͕ΒΈͷαʔϏεۀ ʢิɿҩྍࢱɺαʔϏεۀ͋Δ͠ɺࣗಈं࡞ͬͯΔʣ ओཁ࢈ۀͷ3ͭશ͕ͯ࿑ಇूܕͷϏδωεʹͳ͍ͬͯΔ͜ͱඇৗʹେ͖ͳ ຊΛࢧ͑Δ࢈ۀ
͍ෆگͰࢿ͢Δ͜ͱΛαϘ͖ͬͯͨ ɾࠃ্اۀͷҟৗͳ·ͰͷROEͷ͞ʢઌਐࠃ12.4%ʹରͯ͠ຊ6.8%/աڈ10ฏۉʣ ɾݟͯ͘Εʹͩ͜Θͬͯෆಈ࢈ࢿઃඋ৽͔ͯ͜͠͠ͳ͔ͬͨͷʹചΓ·ͬͨ͘ʢ෦͔͠࡞Εͳ͍ʣ ɾܦӦऀ͕ίετΧοτͰධՁ͞Εͯ͠·͏ͷͰR&DΛ࣮ࢪ͠ͳ͍ʢ৽͕ग़ͯ͜ͳ͍ʣ ɾେखओཁϝʔΧʔطʹւ֎ਐग़ࡁΈͰࠃͰചͬͯͳ͍ͷͰࠃ͕५͏͜ͱ͕ظͰ͖ͳ͍ ෆگͰ৭Μͳͷ͕େ҆ചΓ͍ͯͨ͠ͷʹ͍ؒҾ͖ͬͯ͜ઈରʹ๚ΕΔگʹ ର͢Δ४උͯ͜͠ͳ͔ͬͨπέ͕ճ͖ͬͯͯΔ Ͳ͏ͯ͜͠͏ͳͬͨ
͓ۚͱ࣌ؒΛͬͯࢿΛ͠Α͏ ɾ͓ۚͷՔ͗ํͱ͍ํΛษڧΛ͢ΔʢܳΛॿ͚ͯ͘ΕΔ͕ɺ๛͔ʹͯ͘͠Εͳ͍ʣ ɾγεςϜαʔϏεɺΞϓϦέʔγϣϯΛ͡ΌΜ͡ΌΜ։ൃͯ͢͠Δ͜ͱΛษڧ͢Δ ɾจΛಡΉɺॻ͘ͳͲݚڀ͢Δ͜ͱΛΕͳ͍ ɾӳޠ͔தࠃޠΛʹ͚ͭͯͲΜͳॴͰੜ͖͍͚ͯΔྗΛ࡞Δ ɾ࣍ͷگ࣌ͷͨΊʹചΕΔͷʹ৮ΕΑ͏ ෆگ͕๚Εͯফඅऀͷങ͍߇͕͑ൃੜ͢Δ͕ɺ͓ۚফ͑ͳ͍ͷͰ༨Δ ͓ۚͷ͍ํΛΒͳ͍ͷͰࢢʹग़ճΒͳ͍ͷ͕࣍ͷෆگ ָ؍తදݱΛ͢Δͱʮෆگޙʹόϒϧ͕ൃੜ͍͢͠ঢ়ଶʯʹͳ͍ͬͯΔͱݴ͑Δ ͜Ε͔ΒͲ͏͢Ε͍͍ͷ͔
·ͱΊ ɾফඅ͕མͪࠐΜͰෆܠؾײόϦόϦͰऔΓͨ͢Ίͷಈ͖͕5͘Β͍ଓ͘ ɾ࿅श͠ͳ͍ࣦ͠ഊ͠ͳ͍ͷͰ͠ͳ͍ࠃܦࡁͱࢢ ɾڪΒ࣍͘ͷෆگ৽ڵࠃൃ৴ͰϦʔϚϯͱಉ͡Α͏ʹੈքಉ࣌ෆگ ɾඈ༂ͷͨΊͷࢿΛ࿅श͠Α͏ ɾෆگඞͣگʹͳΔͷͰ४උΛ͢Δͷ͕ࠓޙ5Ͱͦͷ࣍ඈ༂͢Δ5 2020Ҏ߱ͷܦࡁ
Finish Speech 3. MicroEconomy - ࠃͷITۀքಈ Ͳ͏͓ͬͯࣄ͍͔ͯ͘͠ʁ
2. TimeLine - 2020Ҏ߱ͷܦࡁ ɾ2020ͬͯͲΜͳʁ ɾফඅ੫10ˋ࣌ͷ౸དྷ ɾੈք͔Βݟͨຊ ɾւ֎͔Βͷෆͳ͓खࢴ ɾຊΛࢧ͑Δ࢈ۀ ɾ·ͱΊ
1. Recession - ෆگͷ ɾෆگͱʁ ɾ͓ۚͱσβΠϯ ɾ͓ۚͷߦํ ɾෆگͷຊͷ ɾ·ͱΊ Index 3. MicroEconomy - ࠃͷITۀքಈ ɾTimely News ɾւ֎ͷITؔ࿈ਓࡐͷಈ͖ ɾࠃͷITؔ࿈ਓࡐͷಈ͖ ɾ10ޙΛݱ࣮తʹߟ͑Δ ɾ·ͱΊ
20194݄23ʹൃද͞Εͨܦ࢈লͷITਓࡐधڅʹؔ͢Δௐࠪ ɾैདྷܕITਓࡐͱઌܕITਓࡐͷधཁʹҧ͍͕͋Δ ɾ2030ʹैདྷܕITਓࡐ6ʙ33ສਓෆ͔ɺ10ʙ32ສਓ༨ ɾ2030ʹઌܕITਓࡐ11ʙ54ສਓෆ͔ɺ3ສਓ༨ Timely News ಉ͜͡ͱݴͬͯͯෆ͢ΔͬͯΘ͔͚ͬͯͨͲɺ༨ͬͯʁ
ैདྷܕITਓࡐɹCIT ɾैདྷ͔ΒͷITधཁʹରԠ͢ΔITਓࡐ ଟ… ɾExcel৬ਓ ɾిࢠσʔλΛҹ͢Δਓ ɾطʹ͋ΔύοέʔδΛӡ༻͢Δਓ ઌܕITਓࡐɹBIT ɾBIɺAI͕Ͱ͖Δਓ ɾIoTϏδωεΛग़Ͱ͖Δਓ ɾϞόΠϧΞϓϦέʔγϣϯ։ൃ͢Δਓ
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