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Market Trends Analysis 2019/05/14

Market Trends Analysis 2019/05/14

2019/05/14に開催したCareerUppersBoostで発表した資料です
1. 不況の話
2. 2020年以降の経済
3. 国内のIT業界動向

More Decks by あれっくす@マンハッタンコード

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Transcript

  1. Presented by Alex Manhattan Code Inc.
    Market trends analysis
    ܦࡁࢢ৔༧ଌ
    1. Recession - ෆگͷ࿩
    2. TimeLine - 2020೥Ҏ߱ͷܦࡁ
    3. MicroEconomy - ࠃ಺ͷITۀքಈ޲
    For CareerUppersBoost in Shibuya 2019/5/14

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  2. 2. TimeLine - 2020೥Ҏ߱ͷܦࡁ
    ɾ2020೥ͬͯͲΜͳ೥ʁ
    ɾফඅ੫10ˋ࣌୅ͷ౸དྷ
    ɾੈք͔Βݟͨ೔ຊ
    ɾւ֎͔Βͷෆ޾ͳ͓खࢴ
    ɾ೔ຊΛࢧ͑Δ࢈ۀ
    ɾ·ͱΊ
    1. Recession - ෆگͷ࿩
    ɾෆگͱ͸ʁ
    ɾ͓ۚͱσβΠϯ
    ɾ͓ۚͷߦํ
    ɾෆگͷຊ౰ͷ໰୊
    ɾ·ͱΊ
    Index
    3. MicroEconomy - ࠃ಺ͷITۀքಈ޲
    ɾTimely News
    ɾւ֎ͷITؔ࿈ਓࡐͷಈ͖
    ɾࠃ಺ͷITؔ࿈ਓࡐͷಈ͖
    ɾ10೥ޙΛݱ࣮తʹߟ͑Δ
    ɾ·ͱΊ

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  3. Yu Alexender Iimura
    CEO Manhattan Code Inc.
    2006೥3݄ʙ2008೥3݄ɹۚ༥ձࣾͰӦۀ
    2008೥4݄ʙ2012೥3݄ɹதݎSIerʹͯSE
    2012೥4݄ʙ2016೥3݄ɹݸਓࣄۀओͰΤϯδχΞ
    2016೥3݄ʙݱࡏɹɹɹɹManhattanCodeInc. ઃཱ
    Twitter @MHTCode_Alex

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  4. 1. Recession - ෆگͷ࿩
    ෆگͱ͸ͲΜͳঢ়ଶͳͷ͔Λ஌Δ
    Speech program Start
    Speech

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  5. 2. TimeLine - 2020೥Ҏ߱ͷܦࡁ
    ɾ2020೥ͬͯͲΜͳ೥ʁ
    ɾফඅ੫10ˋ࣌୅ͷ౸དྷ
    ɾੈք͔Βݟͨ೔ຊ
    ɾւ֎͔Βͷෆ޾ͳ͓खࢴ
    ɾ೔ຊΛࢧ͑Δ࢈ۀ
    ɾ·ͱΊ
    1. Recession - ෆگͷ࿩
    ɾෆگͱ͸ʁ
    ɾ͓ۚͱσβΠϯ
    ɾ͓ۚͷߦํ
    ɾෆگͷຊ౰ͷ໰୊
    ɾ·ͱΊ
    Index
    3. MicroEconomy - ࠃ಺ͷITۀքಈ޲
    ɾTimely News
    ɾւ֎ͷITؔ࿈ਓࡐͷಈ͖
    ɾࠃ಺ͷITؔ࿈ਓࡐͷಈ͖
    ɾ10೥ޙΛݱ࣮తʹߟ͑Δ
    ɾ·ͱΊ

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  6. ಥવͰ͕͢
    ෆگͬͯԿͷ͜ͱ͔ͩΘ͔Γ·͔͢ʁ

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  7. ෆگΛௐ΂ͯΈͨ
    ;‐͖ΐ͏ʤ‐ΩϠ΢ʥʲෆگʳ
    ܠؾ॥؀ͷҰہ໘Ͱɺܦࡁ͕ఀ଺͍ͯ͠Δঢ়ଶɻޏ༻ྔɾ
    ੜ࢈ྔͳͲͷॖখɺ෺Ձɾ௞ۚ΍རࢠ཰ͳͲ͕௿͍ਫ४
    Λଓ͚Δɻ㱻޷گɻ
    Ҿ༻ɿσδλϧେࣙઘ

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  8. ෆگΛௐ΂ͯΈͨ
    ʁ

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  9. ཁ͸…
    ͓͕ۚফ͑ͯ͠·ͬͯ
    ໯͑ͳ͍ͬͯ͜ͱͰ͢ͶɺΘ͔Γ·͢☺

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  10. ଴ͬͯ
    ⚠‼

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  11. ͓ۚ͸ফ͑ͳ͍
    ͓ۚͷॴ༗ݖ͕Ҡಈ͢Δ͚ͩͰ
    ͓ۚ͸৯ࡐͷΑ͏ʹফඅͯ͠ফ͑ͨΓ͸͠ͳ͍

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  12. ෆگ
    ͓ۚΛ࢖͍೉͍σβΠϯͷੈք
    Bad design of money.
    ޷گ
    ͓ۚΛ࢖͍қ͍σβΠϯͷੈք
    Good design of money.
    ෆگͱ͍͏ͷ͸͓ۚͷσβΠϯ͕มԽͨ͠ঢ়ଶͷ͜ͱ

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  13. Facility - ઃඋ
    ෆศͷղফ
    ɾෆศ͞Λফͨ͢Ίʹݹ͍ઃඋͷߋ৽
    ΍ɺෆಈ࢈ͳͲͷݻఆࢿ࢈ͷ৐Γ׵͑Λ
    ߦ͏
    Stock - ஷۚ
    ෆ҆ͷղফ
    ɾফඅ͕ා͘ͳΓඞཁ࠷௿ݶͷ΋ͷ͔͠
    ങΘͳ͘ͳΔ
    ෆگ࣌ͷ͓ۚͷߦํ
    Business - اۀങऩ
    ࠳ંͷडೖ
    ɾఘΊͯ৬ͦͷ΋ͷΛख์ͯ͠͠·͏
    ݱ͕ۚ͋ΔΑ͏ʹݟ͑Δ ࢿ࢈͕͋ΔΑ͏ʹݟ͑Δ ͓ۚ͸खʹೖΔ͕໨తΛݟࣦ͏

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  14. ෆگͰ΋
    ඈͿΑ͏ʹചΕΔ঎඼͸͋Δ͠ɺ
    ͓ۚΛ͍࣋ͬͯΔاۀ΍ਓ͸Կॲ͔ʹ͍Δ
    ྫʣंɾՈిɾύιίϯɾiPhone

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  15. ෆگͷຊ౰ͷ໰୊
    ໨తΛ࣋ͨͳ͍͓͕ۚࢢ৔ͷେ൒Λ઎ΊΔͨΊɺ
    اۀ΋ਓ΋಺෦తͳ੒௕Λ͠ʹ͘͘ͳΔ
    ࣅ͍ͯΔ໰୊ͱͯ͠͸ϑΝογϣϯͱμΠΤοτ͕͋Δ

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  16. Cool
    ͋ͷ༸෰͕ண͍ͨʂ
    ͜ΜͳϑΝογϣϯ͕͍ͨ͠ʂ
    ੒௕ʹର͢Δ໨త͕͋Δ
    μΠΤοτΛ͠Α͏
    τϨʔχϯάΛ͢Δ
    ৯ੜ׆Λݟ௚ͦ͏
    ັྗతʹͳΔ
    ಺෦తͳ੒௕΋ݟࠐΉ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δ
    Ugly
    ଠ͓ͬͯෲग़ͪΌͬͨʂ
    ࣋ͬͯΔ༸෰Λങ͍௚ͦ͏ʂ
    ੒௕ʹର͢Δ໨త͕ͳ͍
    ෰Λങ͍׵͑Δ
    ͦΕͳΓʹྑ͍΋ͷങ͑͹അࣛʹ͞Εͳ͍
    ౎߹ͷྑ͍΋ͷ͹͔Γ୳͢Α͏ʹͳΔ
    μα͍ࣗ෼ʹؾ͚ͮͳ͍
    ಺෦తͳ੒௕͕Ͱ͖ͣਓͷ໨͕ؾʹͳΔ

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  17. ෆگͰஷΊ͍͓͕ͯͨۚᷓΕग़͢ͱɺܠؾަ୅ہ໘Λܴ͑޷گ΁ͱมΘΔ
    ɾ੫ۚേήʔϜ͕͋ΔͷͰ͍ͭ·Ͱ΋͓ۚΛஷΊ͓ͯ͘͜ͱ͸Ͱ͖ͳ͍
    ɾෆಈ࢈౤ࢿ΍ઃඋ౤ࢿʹ΋ݶք͕๚ΕΔ
    ɾ৬Λࣦͬͨਓ͕ͨͪԿ͔ผͷ͜ͱΛ΍Γ࢝ΊΔ
    ʢͨͩ͠ɺෆگ࣌ʹ໨తΛ์ஔͯ͠τϨʔχϯάΛαϘ͍ͬͯΔͱ޷گ࣌ʹԿ΋ग़དྷͳ͘ͳΔʣ
    ෆگͱ͍͏ͷ͸ঢ়ଶͷมԽ

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  18. ·ͱΊ
    ɾ͓ۚ͸ফ͑ͳ͍ɻෆگʹ͓ۚΛ࢖͍೉͍σβΠϯͷੈք
    ɾෆگ࣌ʹ͸ෆ҆΍ෆศΛղফ͠ɺ࠳ંΛड͚ೖΕΔͨΊʹ͓ۚ͸࢖ΘΕΔ
    ɾෆگͰ΋ചΕͯΔ঎඼͸͋Δ͠ɺ͓ۚΛ͍࣋ͬͯΔاۀ΍ਓ͸͍Δ
    ɾ͍ͭ·Ͱ΋ෆگ͸ଓ͔ͳ͍ͷͰඞͣ޷گͷ࣌୅͕๚ΕΔ
    ෆگͷ࿩

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  19. Step
    #2
    2. TimeLine - 2020೥Ҏ߱ͷܦࡁ
    Ͳ͏͍͏ੈքʁ

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  20. 2. TimeLine - 2020೥Ҏ߱ͷܦࡁ
    ɾ2020೥ͬͯͲΜͳ೥ʁ
    ɾফඅ੫10ˋ࣌୅ͷ౸དྷ
    ɾੈք͔Βݟͨ೔ຊ
    ɾւ֎͔Βͷෆ޾ͳ͓खࢴ
    ɾ೔ຊΛࢧ͑Δ࢈ۀ
    ɾ·ͱΊ
    1. Recession - ෆگͷ࿩
    ɾෆگͱ͸ʁ
    ɾ͓ۚͱσβΠϯ
    ɾ͓ۚͷߦํ
    ɾෆگͷຊ౰ͷ໰୊
    ɾ·ͱΊ
    Index
    3. MicroEconomy - ࠃ಺ͷITۀքಈ޲
    ɾTimely News
    ɾւ֎ͷITؔ࿈ਓࡐͷಈ͖
    ɾࠃ಺ͷITؔ࿈ਓࡐͷಈ͖
    ɾ10೥ޙΛݱ࣮తʹߟ͑Δ
    ɾ·ͱΊ

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  21. 2020೥Ҏ߱ͷ͓࿩
    2020೥ͬͯͲΜͳ೥Ͱ͠ΐ͏͔ʁ

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  22. ͲΜͳ͜ͱ͕଴ͬͯΔ͔
    ɾ࠷ޙͷηϯλʔࢼݧ͕࣮ࢪ
    ɾ̑G͕঎༻αʔϏε։࢝
    ɾ౦ژΦϦϯϐοΫ։࠵
    ɾখֶߍͰϓϩάϥϛϯάڭҭ͕࢝·Δ
    ɾAdobe Flashͷఏڙऴྃ
    2020೥ͬͯͲΜͳ೥ʁ

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  23. 2019೥10݄͔Βফඅ੫8%→10%΁ͷҾ্͖͕͛։࢝͞ΕΔ
    ɾ3%→5%ɺ5%→8%΁ͷҾ্͖͛࣌͸ͦΕͧΕࠃ಺ͷফඅ͕ճ෮͢Δͷ͕2೥΄Ͳ͔͔ͬͨ
    ɾ2೥ؒ͸Ϟϊ͕ചΕͣڅྉ΋্͕Βͳ͍ʢ2020೥ΦϦϯϐοΫऴྃޙ͔Β2022೥·Ͱʣ
    ɾ3೥໨͔Β΍ͬͱϞϊ͕ചΕ࢝Ίɺڅྉ΋্͕Γ࢝ΊΔʢ2023೥͔Βফඅ͕ճ෮͢Δʣ
    ɾ4೥໨Ͱճ෮࿏ઢʹೖΔʢ2024೥͕Ք͗࣌ʣ
    ɾ5೥໨Ͱফඅ੫12%Ҿ্͖͕͛ݕ౼͞ΕͯΔ͚Ͳେৎ෉ʁʢ2025೥Ͱ·ͨམͪΔͱ༧ଌ͞ΕͯΔʣ
    ফඅ੫10%࣌୅ͷ౸དྷ

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  24. ೔ຊͷ੒௕͸1%ະຬ
    ɾOECDͷൃදͩͱੈքܦࡁͷ੒௕͸2019೥ͰϐʔΫʹୡͨ͠ʢ2019೥ͷੈքฏۉ3.5% / ೔ຊ1.0%ʣ
    ɾ2018೥͸0.9%ɺ2019೥͸1.0%ɺ2020೥͸0.7%
    ɾIMFʹΑΔͱGDP͸2019೥͸0.98ͷ੒௕ͩͬͨ΋ͷ͕ɺ2024೥ʹ͸0.52΁ʢ໿53ˋݮʣ
    ɾIMFʹΑΔͱG7Ͱ།Ұ೔ຊ͚͕ͩGDPϚΠφε੒௕ʢ2016೥͔Β2017೥ʹ͔͚ͯ0.5→-0.1΁ʣ
    ɹ
    ੈք͔Βݟͨ೔ຊ

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  25. ࣍ͷෆگ͸͓ͦΒ͘৽ڵࠃಉ࣌ܦࡁෆگ͕Ҿ͖ۚʁ
    ɾࠃࡍܾࡁۜߦBISͷ౷ܭͰ͸τϧί΍λΠͳͲͷ৽ڵࠃ20Χࠃͷෛ࠴͸2005೥ͷ3ഒʢ2017೥࣌఺ʣ
    ɾࠃࡍ௨՟جۚIMFʹΑΔͱΞϝϦΧൃͷϦʔϚϯγϣοΫʹىҼ͓ͯۚ͠͸৽ڵࠃʹྲྀΕͨͱ2017೥ʹൃද
    ɾ1990೥ͷෆಈ࢈όϒϧ͸೔ຊ͕Ҿ͖͚ۚͩͬͨͲɺ1997೥ͷΞδΞ௨՟ةػ΋ϦʔϚϯγϣοΫ΋ւ֎ൃ
    ෆگ͸10೥पظ
    1990೥ɹෆಈ࢈όϒϧ
    1997೥ɹΞδΞ௨՟ةػ
    2008೥ɹϦʔϚϯγϣοΫ
    2018೥ɹʁʁʁ
    ւ֎͔Βͷෆ޾ͷ͓खࢴ

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  26. ඒ͍͠ը૾Λָ͓͠Έ͍ͩ͘͞
    ෆگͱ͔ෆܠؾͱ͔ා͍࿩ଓ͘ΑͶʙ
    ໌Δ͍χϡʔεΛ͘Ε ҉͍࿩͸΋͏ͨ͘͞Μͩ
    ςϯγϣϯ͕ΨϯԼ͛ʹͳΔΑͶʙ

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  27. ࠃ಺Ͱଉͯ͠Δ࢈ۀ͸3ͭ
    ɾ࠷ऴ੡඼ͷ࡞Εͳ͍෦඼࢈ۀ
    ɾ೔ຊޠʹΑΔඇޮ཰ͳࣄ຿࢓ࣄ
    ɾ؍ޫ͕ΒΈͷαʔϏεۀ
    ʢิ଍ɿҩྍ΍෱ࢱɺαʔϏεۀ΋͋Δ͠ɺࣗಈं͸׬੒඼࡞ͬͯΔʣ
    ओཁ࢈ۀͷ3ͭશ͕ͯ࿑ಇू໿ܕͷϏδωεʹͳ͍ͬͯΔ͜ͱ͸ඇৗʹେ͖ͳ໰୊
    ೔ຊΛࢧ͑Δ࢈ۀ

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  28. ௕͍ෆگͰ౤ࢿ͢Δ͜ͱΛαϘ͖ͬͯͨ
    ɾࠃ಺্৔اۀͷҟৗͳ·ͰͷROEͷ௿͞ʢઌਐࠃ12.4%ʹରͯ͠೔ຊ6.8%/աڈ10೥ฏۉʣ
    ɾݟͯ͘Εʹͩ͜Θͬͯෆಈ࢈౤ࢿ΍ઃඋ࡮৽͔ͯ͜͠͠ͳ͔ͬͨͷʹ޻৔ചΓ·ͬͨ͘ʢ෦඼͔͠࡞Εͳ͍ʣ
    ɾܦӦऀ͕ίετΧοτͰධՁ͞Εͯ͠·͏ͷͰR&DΛ࣮ࢪ͠ͳ͍ʢ৽੡඼͕ग़ͯ͜ͳ͍ʣ
    ɾେखओཁϝʔΧʔ͸طʹւ֎ਐग़ࡁΈͰࠃ಺Ͱ঎ച΍ͬͯͳ͍ͷͰࠃ಺͕५͏͜ͱ͕ظ଴Ͱ͖ͳ͍
    ෆگͰ৭Μͳ΋ͷ͕େ҆ചΓ͍ͯͨ͠ͷʹ௕͍ؒҾ͖͜΋ͬͯઈରʹ๚ΕΔ޷گʹ
    ର͢Δ४උͯ͜͠ͳ͔ͬͨπέ͕ճ͖ͬͯͯΔ
    Ͳ͏ͯ͜͠͏ͳͬͨ

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  29. ͓ۚͱ࣌ؒΛ࢖ͬͯ౤ࢿΛ͠Α͏
    ɾ͓ۚͷՔ͗ํͱ࢖͍ํΛษڧΛ͢Δʢܳ͸਎Λॿ͚ͯ͘ΕΔ͕ɺ๛͔ʹ͸ͯ͘͠Εͳ͍ʣ
    ɾγεςϜ΍αʔϏεɺΞϓϦέʔγϣϯΛ͡ΌΜ͡ΌΜ։ൃͯ͠੡଄͢Δ͜ͱΛษڧ͢Δ
    ɾ࿦จΛಡΉɺॻ͘ͳͲݚڀ͢Δ͜ͱΛ๨Εͳ͍
    ɾӳޠ͔தࠃޠΛ਎ʹ͚ͭͯͲΜͳ৔ॴͰ΋ੜ͖͍͚ͯΔྗΛ࡞Δ
    ɾ࣍ͷ޷گ࣌ͷͨΊʹചΕΔ΋ͷʹ৮ΕΑ͏
    ෆگ͕๚Εͯফඅऀͷങ͍߇͕͑ൃੜ͢Δ͕ɺ͓ۚ͸ফ͑ͳ͍ͷͰ༨Δ
    ͓ۚͷ࢖͍ํΛ஌Βͳ͍ͷͰࢢ৔ʹग़ճΒͳ͍ͷ͕࣍ͷෆگ
    ָ؍తදݱΛ͢Δͱʮෆگޙʹόϒϧ͕ൃੜ͠΍͍͢ঢ়ଶʯʹͳ͍ͬͯΔͱݴ͑Δ
    ͜Ε͔ΒͲ͏͢Ε͹͍͍ͷ͔

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  30. ·ͱΊ
    ɾফඅ͕མͪࠐΜͰෆܠؾײόϦόϦͰऔΓ໭ͨ͢Ίͷಈ͖͕5೥͘Β͍ଓ͘
    ɾ࿅श͠ͳ͍ࣦ͠ഊ͠ͳ͍ͷͰ੒௕΋͠ͳ͍ࠃ಺ܦࡁͱࢢ৔
    ɾڪΒ࣍͘ͷෆگ͸৽ڵࠃൃ৴ͰϦʔϚϯͱಉ͡Α͏ʹੈքಉ࣌ෆگ
    ɾඈ༂ͷͨΊͷ౤ࢿΛ࿅श͠Α͏
    ɾෆگ͸ඞͣ޷گʹͳΔͷͰ४උΛ͢Δͷ͕ࠓޙ5೥Ͱͦͷ࣍͸ඈ༂͢Δ5೥
    2020೥Ҏ߱ͷܦࡁ

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  31. Finish
    Speech
    3. MicroEconomy - ࠃ಺ͷITۀքಈ޲
    Ͳ͏΍͓ͬͯ࢓ࣄ͍͔ͯ͘͠ʁ

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  32. 2. TimeLine - 2020೥Ҏ߱ͷܦࡁ
    ɾ2020೥ͬͯͲΜͳ೥ʁ
    ɾফඅ੫10ˋ࣌୅ͷ౸དྷ
    ɾੈք͔Βݟͨ೔ຊ
    ɾւ֎͔Βͷෆ޾ͳ͓खࢴ
    ɾ೔ຊΛࢧ͑Δ࢈ۀ
    ɾ·ͱΊ
    1. Recession - ෆگͷ࿩
    ɾෆگͱ͸ʁ
    ɾ͓ۚͱσβΠϯ
    ɾ͓ۚͷߦํ
    ɾෆگͷຊ౰ͷ໰୊
    ɾ·ͱΊ
    Index
    3. MicroEconomy - ࠃ಺ͷITۀքಈ޲
    ɾTimely News
    ɾւ֎ͷITؔ࿈ਓࡐͷಈ͖
    ɾࠃ಺ͷITؔ࿈ਓࡐͷಈ͖
    ɾ10೥ޙΛݱ࣮తʹߟ͑Δ
    ɾ·ͱΊ

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  33. 2019೥4݄23೔ʹൃද͞Εͨܦ࢈লͷITਓࡐधڅʹؔ͢Δௐࠪ
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