Seminar delivered at the University of Liverpool 20 February 2018 Ethnic population projections for post-Brexit Britain Nik Lomax School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT [email protected]
Perception vs reality Ipsos MORI Perils of Perception survey 2013: • What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)? Public Perception 31%
Perception vs reality Ipsos MORI Perils of Perception survey 2013: • What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)? Public Perception 31% Reality 13%
Perception vs reality Ipsos MORI Perils of Perception survey 2013: • Out of every 100 people in Britain, about how many do you think Are Black or Asian? Public Perception 30/100
Perception vs reality Ipsos MORI Perils of Perception survey 2013: • Out of every 100 people in Britain, about how many do you think Are Black or Asian? Public Perception 30/100 Reality 14/100
Post referendum survey Ipsos MORI Perils of Perception survey 2016: • Out of every 100 residents in the UK, about how many do you think were born in an EU member state other than the UK? Public Perception 15/100 Remain = 10 Leave = 20
Post referendum survey Ipsos MORI Perils of Perception survey 2016: • Out of every 100 residents in the UK, about how many do you think were born in an EU member state other than the UK? Reality 5/100 Public Perception 15/100 Remain = 10 Leave = 20
Context: Population trends 59 63 Source: ONS Population of the United Kingdom by Country of Birth and Nationality 80% 82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% 56,000 57,000 58,000 59,000 60,000 61,000 62,000 63,000 64,000 65,000 66,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % of population UK Born Population (000s) Year UK Population % UK Born CI
Variant projections "high population" variant assumes high fertility, life expectancy and net migration: 4.1 million above principal projection "low population" variant assumes low fertility, life expectancy and net migration: 4.9 million below principal projection
Evaluation, Revision and Extension of Ethnic Population Projections - ETHPOP Our overall aim is to understand and to forecast the ethnic composition, size and distribution of the United Kingdom’s population www.ethpop.org The research was supported by ESRC award ES/L013878/1 for the project Evaluation, Revision and Extension of Ethnic Population Projections – NewETHPOP
Why Ethnicity? • It is well established that demographic rates vary substantially by ethnic group: see Coleman (2006), Coleman (2010) Rees (2012). • Variation in service provision needs, e.g. – health care (Parliamentary office of Science and Technology 2007) – social care (Rees et al. 2009) – education (Penn, 2000) • Very important for monitoring ethnic advantage / disadvantage & segregation.
Why Ethnicity? • An ethnically disaggregated projection should perform better than one which is only disaggregated by age and sex because additional ethnic heterogeneity is taken in to account within the model.
What impact do international and internal migration have on the size, composition and distribution of the UK population by ethnicity? Method: Run a projection model which experiments with migration components Aim: To prepare us for what will be a new and different demographic future Key Question
How? A population projection model Pro Cohort component model Bi-regional Single year of age 2 genders 12 ethnicities 389 local authority areas 2011 base 50 year horizon Ethnic mixing
Scenario assumptions Scenario International Migration No Brexit Net International Migration trended to = +252k in 2031-32, then constant. Annually, In = 621k, Out = 362k Soft Brexit Net International Migration trended to = +185k in 2031-32, then constant. Annually, In = 518k, Out = 333k Hard Brexit Net International Migration trended to = +100k in 2031-32, then constant. Annually, In = 349k, Out = 249k No International Migration Set to zero – Reference projection No Migration Set to zero – Reference projection Scenario Internal Migration No Brexit, Soft Brexit and Hard Brexit, No International Migration 5-year average rates from 2006-07 to 2010-11 period applied to population at risk (by age, sex and ethnicity) in each year No Migration Set to zero – Reference projection
Indirect impact of migration No Brexit (business as usual) ‘Soft’ Brexit No Migration Four Migration Scenarios ‘Hard’ Brexit No International Migration
Populations very reliant on international migration • Generally largest net migration groups • Indian – older population (34.1) • Chinese and Other have low fertility (1.26 / 1.77)
Populations very reliant on international migration • Generally largest net migration groups • Indian – older population (34.1) • Chinese and Other have low fertility (1.26 / 1.77)
Populations somewhat reliant on international migration Relatively young – BLA = 27.8 / OBL = 25.8 Black African have large starting –population and relatively high fertility (2.64)
Populations somewhat reliant on international migration Relatively young – BLA = 27.8 / OBL = 25.8 Black African have large starting –population and relatively high fertility (2.64)
Populations which continue to grow These groups have the demographic momentum to keep growing Very young populations: Pakistani = 27; Bangladeshi = 25.5; Mixed = 21.8 (youngest) Pakistani and Bangladeshi have very high fertility: TFR=3.2 and 3.47
Populations which continue to grow These groups have the demographic momentum to keep growing Very young populations: Pakistani = 27; Bangladeshi = 25.5; Mixed = 21.8 (youngest) Pakistani and Bangladeshi have very high fertility: TFR=3.2 and 3.47
Populations which are declining anyway These are the oldest groups who continue to age (WBI = 41.4; BLC = 38.7) They have relatively low fertility (WBI = 1.83; BLC = 1.75) They have net out-migration (except BLC under Hard Brexit)
Populations which are declining anyway These are the oldest groups who continue to age (WBI = 41.4; BLC = 38.7) They have relatively low fertility (WBI = 1.83; BLC = 1.75) They have net out-migration (except BLC under Hard Brexit)
Composition and diversity Ethnicity 2061 Population Scenario (%) 2011 Population (%) No Brexit Soft Brexit Hard Brexit No International Migration No Migration White British & Irish 82.4 57.9 59.6 64.5 75.6 75.2 Other White 4.5 12.9 11.8 10.0 4.0 3.9 Mixed 2.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.3 4.4 Indian 2.4 5.2 5.0 3.8 2.7 2.9 Pakistani 1.9 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.6 Bangladeshi 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 Chinese 0.7 2.6 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.6 Other Asian 1.4 3.1 3.0 2.5 1.6 1.7 Black African 1.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 2.5 2.7 Black Caribbean 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 Other Black 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 Other 0.9 1.8 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.8 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total Pop. 63,743 86,902 82,883 78,087 65,659 66,742 Diversity 0.32 0.64 0.62 0.57 0.42 0.43 Index of Diversity = 1 - S e re 2 where re = proportion of the population in ethnic group e
The latest ONS statistics* (to mid 2017) suggest: • A downturn in EU immigration, which is built into the Soft and Hard Brexit scenarios. • There was also a steep upturn in emigration, which we had not anticipated. • EU citizens are voting with their feet: they are not coming to work in the UK in as large numbers and are leaving to work elsewhere in larger numbers. *ONS (2017). Migration Statistics Quarterly Report: November 2017.
Microsimulation approach Lomax, N. and Smith, A P. (2017) Microsimulation for demography. Australian Population Studies, 1(1): 73-85 • A simpler ‘static sequential’ projection and a more complex dynamic model • Still retains the ethnic dimension of projection
Seminar delivered at the University of Liverpool 20 February 2018 Ethnic population projections for post-Brexit Britain Nik Lomax School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT [email protected]
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