Dealing with Uncertainty in Business and Life

We live in uncertain times. As we reel from the shock and awe of the daily news cycle, it feels like we lack control over our lives, our businesses, and communities.

It needn't be this way. We can learn to manage uncertainty and regain both control and confidence. This presentation introduces some of the core concepts that will help you stay on target, even in a world filled with unknown unknowns.

Transcript

1. Dealing with Uncertainty in Business and Life A workshop by Sara Hjalmarsson © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017 Version 2.0
2. Who is Sara? • Background in the Swedish private security industry • BSc. Counterterrorism security and intelligence • BSc. Hons. Security Science • Polymath Photo: Pauli Liestalo © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
3. Why are you here today? © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
4. Uncertainty and Risk Negative Risk Hinders your objective Positive Risk Supports your objective Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives -ISO 31000 © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
5. Fear makes men forget, and skill that cannot fight is useless - Brasidas of Sparta © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
6. How uncertainty affects our mind © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017 Herding behaviour Panic Stress Relaxed Knowledge and reasoning Heuristics and biases
7. Heuristics (You - what?) © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017 Availability heuristic Affect heuristic Social proof
8. Herding Behaviour source: Nature © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
9. What can we do to stay afloat? © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
10. A Solid Strategy © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
11. A Solid Strategy ISO 28000 ASIS/BSI BCM.01.2010 AS/NZS HB 221:2004 Basel III ISO 31000 © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
12. Step 1 Know thyself
 Step 2 Map your uncertainties
 Step 3 Determine what matters
 Step 4 Prescribe treatment
 Step 5 Document your plan © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
13. Step 1 Know thyself © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
14. Know thyself Objectives Context Needs Resources © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017 Mandate
15. Step 2 Map your uncertainties © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
16. Step 2. Map your uncertainties What do you need to reach your objective? © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017 Objective Get a Masters Degree Funding Good marks Thesis Motivation
17. What can get in the way? Step 2. Map your uncertainties © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017 Objective Get a Masters Degree Inadequate Funding Unexpected Costs Poor marks Failed thesis Lack of motivation Burnout Stress Failed courses Loss of funds Bad choice of topic Bad time management
18. Uncertainty map Step 2. Map your uncertainties © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017 Objective Risk Risk Source Risk Source Risk Source Risk Source Risk Source Risk Source Risk Source Risk Risk Risk Get a Masters Degree Inadequate Funding Unexpected Costs Poor marks Failed thesis Lack of motivation Burnout Stress Failed courses Loss of funds Bad choice of topic Bad time management
19. Remember! Focus on what you know, what you can measure and what is supported by evidence © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
20. Step 3 Determine what matters © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
21. Step 3. Determine what matters Low (1 point) Medium (2 points) High (3 points) Negligable
 (1 point) 1 2 3 Moderate (2 points) 2 4 6 Critical (3 points) 3 6 9 Criticality Likelihood © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017 Risk = Criticality x Likelihood
22. Criticality (severity) Moderate Slows you down, but doesn’t stop you Negligable You can keep going Critical Stops you from proceeding any further Step 3. Determine what matters © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
23. Likelihood (over time) Low Medium High Occasional Common Rare Step 3. Determine what matters © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
24. Remember! The quality of your analysis depends on the quality of your criteria. © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
25. Step 4 Prescribe treatment © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
26. Call the doctor! © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
27. Call the doctor! Step 4. Prescribe treatment © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
28. Mitigate Share Avoid Accept Prevent Call the doctor! Step 4. Prescribe treatment © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
29. Prevent Protection, alarms, etc. (target hardening, detection) Intelligence Responsible practices Vetting/filtering process Call the doctor! Step 4. Prescribe treatment © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
30. Mitigate Contingency/continuity plans Exit strategies Back-ups Incident response Call the doctor! Step 4. Prescribe treatment © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
31. Share Insurance Contracts & Agreements Partnerships & Outsourcing
 
 Distributed services/data Call the doctor! Step 4. Prescribe treatment © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
32. Avoid Don’t do the risky activity Stay legal Avoid bad markets Call the doctor! Step 4. Prescribe treatment © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
33. Accept (This is the default option) Take note of the risk Monitor for change Take no further action Call the doctor! Step 4. Prescribe treatment © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
34. Step 5 Document your plan
35. Step 5. Document your plan The format is less important as long as it works for you © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
36. Remember! Monitor and review © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
37. © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017 Q & A
38. Further reading • http://www.innovationessence.com/investigates- behaviour-environment/ • https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/media- spotlight/201610/why-do-we-panic-in-emergencies • http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v407/n6803/ fig_tab/407465a0_F1.html © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017
39. Get in touch Sara Hjalmarsson offers workshops and seminars on security-related subjects such as terrorism, secure design/perimeter protection, risk management, and personal safety.
 Sara can be reached at:
 
 info@nomadpolymath.com +46 (0)73-580 43 37 © Sara Hjalmarsson 2017