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機械学習を用いた大相撲千秋楽の勝敗予想 / sumo prediction by machin...
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Shotaro Ishihara
August 24, 2019
Technology
2.3k
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機械学習を用いた大相撲千秋楽の勝敗予想 / sumo prediction by machine learning
Sports Analyst Meetup #4 (
https://spoana.connpass.com/event/138392/
) での発表資料。
Shotaro Ishihara
August 24, 2019
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Transcript
ػցֶशΛ༻͍ͨ େ૬ઍळָͷউഊ༧ V !VQVSB "VHUI 4QPSUT"OBMZTU.FFUVQ
V ͷඋ • େ૬ͷσʔλऩूʮ4VNP3FGFSFODFʯ͕ศར • ʲՄࢹԽฤʳػցֶशΛ༻͍ͨେ૬ઍळָͷউഊ༧ • ʲϕϯνϚʔΫฤʳػցֶशΛ༻͍ͨେ૬ઍळָͷউ ഊ༧ •
ʲಛྔͷՃฤʳػցֶशΛ༻͍ͨେ૬ઍळָͷউ ഊ༧ (JU)VC • IUUQTHJUIVCDPNVQVSBTVNPQSFEJDUPS ϦϯΫू
࣍ • എܠˍత • σʔλͷऔಘ • ػցֶशϞσϧͷ࡞ • ಛྔͷՃ
• ݁ˍࠓޙͷల
• V !VQVSB • ࣄۀձࣾͷσʔλαΠΤϯςΟετ • TQPBOBӡӦ • ΘΜͺ͘૬໊ݹॴϕετ
࿈ଓ • ,BHHMF.BTUFS "U$PEFS ਫ ࣗݾհ
• ૬ͷσʔλΛ༻͍ͯɺػցֶशͰ ༧ଌϞσϧΛߏஙͰ͖ͳ͍͔ʁ • ૬ͷྗ࢜ใͰͳ͘ɺউͪෛ͚ ͷ࣌ܥྻใ͔Β༧ଌͯ͠Έ͍ͨ • ˞झຯͳͷͰશͳख๏υϦϒϯ ૬
º ,BHHMF
উͪෛ͚ͷ࣌ܥྻใ ˓˔˔˔˓ ˓˔˓˔˔ ˔˓˔˔ʁ ˔˓˓˓˓ ˔˔˓˔˓ ˓˔˔˓ʁ
࣍ • എܠˍత • σʔλͷऔಘ • ػցֶशϞσϧͷ࡞ • ಛྔͷՃ
• ݁ˍࠓޙͷల
• IUUQTVNPECTVNPHBNFTEF • TQPBOB Ͱͬͨ • ૬ͷ֤छσʔλ͕ཧ͞Ε͍ͯΔ • ྗ࢜ •
൪ • औΓΈ ͳͲ 4VNP3FGFSFODF
• 1ZUIPOͰඵ͝ͱʹॴͷσʔλ ΛऔಘɾՃͯ͠DTWͰอଘ • ʙͷσʔλ औಘ
• ྗ໊࢜ • ʙͷউഊ • ઍळָͷରઓྗ࢜ • ॴʢZZZZNNʣ • ઍळָͷউഊʢతมʣ
σʔλ߲
σʔλͷՄࢹԽ
• উഊͷ߹ͷউ͕ʢউഊ উഊͷ߹ʹൺͯʣߴ͍ • ·Ͱʹʙউ͍ͯ͠Δ ߹উ͕ΑΓߴ͍ • ˞ʮീඦʯͷٞΛ͢Δʹ ѻ͍ͬͯΔใྔ͕গͳ͗͢Δ
ߟ
࣍ • എܠˍత • σʔλͷऔಘ • ػցֶशϞσϧͷ࡞ • ಛྔͷՃ
• ݁ˍࠓޙͷల
σʔλͷׂ
• ྗ໊࢜ • ʙͷউഊ • ऴྃ࣌ͷউͪ • ઍळָͷରઓྗ࢜ • ॴʢZZZZNNʣ
• ઍळָͷউഊʢతมʣ ಛྔɾతม
• -JHIU(#.ʢ,BHHMFͰఆ൪ʣ • ܾఆΛେྔʹ࡞Δྨث • ಛྔ͕গͳ͍ͷΛҙࣝͯ͠ɺϋΠ ύʔύϥϝʔλΛखಈͰௐͨ͠ ػցֶशΞϧΰϦζϜ
• $7είΞɺ"6$ • UFTUɺ"6$ "$$ $7UFTUͷྨੑೳ
࣍ • എܠˍత • σʔλͷऔಘ • ػցֶशϞσϧͷ࡞ • ಛྔͷՃ
• ݁ˍࠓޙͷల
• ྗ໊࢜ • ʙͷউഊ • ·Ͱͷউͪ • ରઓྗ࢜ͷ·Ͱͷউͪ • ઍळָͷରઓྗ࢜
• ॴʢZZZZNNʣ • ઍळָͷউഊʢతมʣ ಛྔɾతม
• $7είΞɺ"6$ • UFTUɺ"6$ ɺ"$$ $7UFTUͷྨੑೳ
• ʮ·Ͱͷ࿈উɾ࿈ഊʯ $7UFTUͷྨੑೳͱʹඍ૿ • ͦͷଞͷ࣌ܥྻಛΛ lUTGSFTIzͰ େྔʹੜʢݸऑʣ͠ݸ࠾༻ ˠ$7UFTUͷྨੑೳ͕վળͤͣ ૣʑʹߦ͖٧·Δɾɾɾ
IUUQTUTGSFTISFBEUIFEPDTJPFOMBUFTU
࣍ • എܠˍత • σʔλͷऔಘ • ػցֶशϞσϧͷ࡞ • ಛྔͷՃ
• ݁ˍࠓޙͷల
• ػցֶशΛ༻͍ͯɺେ૬ઍळָͷ উഊΛ༧ͨ͠ • -JHIU(#.ϕʔεͰಛྔΛ૿͠ ͍ͯ͘ํ๏ʹݶք͕͋Γͦ͏ • ˞ͦͦ͜ͷใͰ༧Ͱ͖Δ͔ ୭ʹ͔Βͳ͍
݁
• ผͷػցֶशϞσϧΛࢼ͢ • উͪෛ͚ͷʮʯͷྲྀΕΛ 3//ʹೖΕΔ͜ͱͰɺௐࢠͷΛ ଊ͑ΒΕΔʁ • ࣍ճҎ߱ɺ·ͨൃද͠·͢ ࠓޙͷల