量的データを扱うときに 知っておきたいこと —データの分布、有意性、効果量、信頼区間—

外国語教育メディア学会第56回全国研究大会
＠早稲田大学
2016. 8. 7.

Transcript

1. ྔతσʔλΛѻ͏ͱ͖ʹ ஌͓͖͍ͬͯͨ͜ͱ —σʔλͷ෼෍ɺ༗ҙੑɺޮՌྔɺ৴པ۠ؒ— Ӝ໺ ݚʢ๺ւֶԂେֶʣ email: urano@hgu.jp ֎ࠃޠڭҭϝσΟΞֶձୈ56ճશࠃݚڀେձ ˏૣҴాେֶ ɹɹ2016. 8. 7. ຊ೔ͷࢿྉ http://bit.ly/let2016ws
2. Έͳ͞Μʹ࣭໰
3. • ࿦จ౳ͰޮՌྔΛใࠂͨ͜͠ͱ͸͋Γ·͔͢ • ৴པ۠ؒΛใࠂͨ͜͠ͱ͸͋Γ·͔͢ • ޮՌྔ d ΍ η2 ͷܭࢉํ๏Λ஌͍ͬͯ·͔͢ • ඪ४ภࠩͷܭࢉํ๏Λ஌͍ͬͯ·͔͢ Έͳ͞Μʹ࣭໰
4. ՍۭͷσʔλΛ ༻ҙ͠·ͨ͠
5. Name* Test A খ૔ ರ 70 Տ੢ େޒ࿠ 38 খਿ Ꮺ 58 ௶Ҫ ج༞ 48 ӬҪ ج༞ 28 ڮޱ ๏࢚ 54 ݪ ཽ໵ 58 ޿੉ ༎ 38 ౻ా ࢰಐ 42 ຊؒ խ඙ 47 ٶ࡚ ৎ༤ 78 ଜҪ ࿣࿠ 68 ࢁ࡚ ޹ଠ࿠ 40 ԣҪ ޛࢤ 50 ґా ༸հ 68 एࢁ ప 57 ༗അ Ղ೫ 64 ࿨ઘ ګࢠ 76 ؠҪ ඒՂ 43 ߐ઒ ༝Ӊ 90 ਆ୩ ࣿق 58 ๺઒ ઍՂࢠ 38 ࡔా Ѫࡊ 38 ਿా ඒՂ 43 ⁋ຊ ᜫ 58 ౔୩ ே߳ 60 Ӭ੉ ͘ΔΈ 48 দ໦ ಹಸ 45 ଜҪ ݁ࢠ 24 ए௬ ·Έ 36 *ʮͳΜͪΌͬͯݸਓ৘ใʯͰੜ੒ http://kazina.com/dummy/
6. Group A Test A খ૔ ರ 70 Տ੢ େޒ࿠ 38 খਿ Ꮺ 58 ௶Ҫ ج༞ 48 ӬҪ ج༞ 28 ڮޱ ๏࢚ 54 ݪ ཽ໵ 58 ޿੉ ༎ 38 ౻ా ࢰಐ 42 ຊؒ խ඙ 47 ٶ࡚ ৎ༤ 78 ଜҪ ࿣࿠ 68 ࢁ࡚ ޹ଠ࿠ 40 ԣҪ ޛࢤ 50 ґా ༸հ 68 एࢁ ప 57 ༗അ Ղ೫ 64 ࿨ઘ ګࢠ 76 ؠҪ ඒՂ 43 ߐ઒ ༝Ӊ 90 ਆ୩ ࣿق 58 ๺઒ ઍՂࢠ 38 ࡔా Ѫࡊ 38 ਿా ඒՂ 43 ⁋ຊ ᜫ 58 ౔୩ ே߳ 60 Ӭ੉ ͘ΔΈ 48 দ໦ ಹಸ 45 ଜҪ ݁ࢠ 24 ए௬ ·Έ 36 Group B Test A ؠӬ ࿡࿠ 52 ২໦ ҭೋ 59 ย੉ ཽ໵ 61 ࡔݩ ᠳଠ 76 ౡଜ ༏ 45 ৓ా ௕ར 68 ௕୔ ஌࢙ 63 দҪ Ұಙ 69 ࡾݪ ༟࣍࿠ 43 क԰ ཽ࣍ 51 ੨໺ Έ͋ 36 ஑୩ ༏ 51 ؠ୩ ౧ࢠ 39 ্ݪ ܠࢠ 71 ߐޱ Ί͙Έ 26 ٴ઒ ͳͭΈ 79 େ௩ ·͞Έ 55 Ԭ໺ ࿏ࢠ 61 ֯ా ౧ࢠ 89 ઒୺ ݁ҥ 51 ਆށ ࡊʑඒ 71 ֎ࢁ Έ͋ 63 রҪ Έ͖ 41 ࠜ؛ ༏ 41 ࠜ؛ ྱࢠ 83 Ӌా ѥر 93 ෱࢜ ΈΏ͖ 47 ෍ࢪ ༑߳ 37 ଜా จੈ 52 ٢Ӭ ܙས߳ 41
7. Group A Test A খ૔ ರ 70 Տ੢ େޒ࿠ 38 খਿ Ꮺ 58 ௶Ҫ ج༞ 48 ӬҪ ج༞ 28 ڮޱ ๏࢚ 54 ݪ ཽ໵ 58 ޿੉ ༎ 38 ౻ా ࢰಐ 42 ຊؒ խ඙ 47 ٶ࡚ ৎ༤ 78 ଜҪ ࿣࿠ 68 ࢁ࡚ ޹ଠ࿠ 40 ԣҪ ޛࢤ 50 ґా ༸հ 68 एࢁ ప 57 ༗അ Ղ೫ 64 ࿨ઘ ګࢠ 76 ؠҪ ඒՂ 43 ߐ઒ ༝Ӊ 90 ਆ୩ ࣿق 58 ๺઒ ઍՂࢠ 38 ࡔా Ѫࡊ 38 ਿా ඒՂ 43 ⁋ຊ ᜫ 58 ౔୩ ே߳ 60 Ӭ੉ ͘ΔΈ 48 দ໦ ಹಸ 45 ଜҪ ݁ࢠ 24 ए௬ ·Έ 36 Group B Test A ؠӬ ࿡࿠ 52 ২໦ ҭೋ 59 ย੉ ཽ໵ 61 ࡔݩ ᠳଠ 76 ౡଜ ༏ 45 ৓ా ௕ར 68 ௕୔ ஌࢙ 63 দҪ Ұಙ 69 ࡾݪ ༟࣍࿠ 43 क԰ ཽ࣍ 51 ੨໺ Έ͋ 36 ஑୩ ༏ 51 ؠ୩ ౧ࢠ 39 ্ݪ ܠࢠ 71 ߐޱ Ί͙Έ 26 ٴ઒ ͳͭΈ 79 େ௩ ·͞Έ 55 Ԭ໺ ࿏ࢠ 61 ֯ా ౧ࢠ 89 ઒୺ ݁ҥ 51 ਆށ ࡊʑඒ 71 ֎ࢁ Έ͋ 63 রҪ Έ͖ 41 ࠜ؛ ༏ 41 ࠜ؛ ྱࢠ 83 Ӌా ѥر 93 ෱࢜ ΈΏ͖ 47 ෍ࢪ ༑߳ 37 ଜా จੈ 52 ٢Ӭ ܙས߳ 41 ൺ΂ͯΈΑ͏
8. Group A Test A খ૔ ರ 70 Տ੢ େޒ࿠ 38 খਿ Ꮺ 58 ௶Ҫ ج༞ 48 ӬҪ ج༞ 28 ڮޱ ๏࢚ 54 ݪ ཽ໵ 58 ޿੉ ༎ 38 ౻ా ࢰಐ 42 ຊؒ խ඙ 47 ٶ࡚ ৎ༤ 78 ଜҪ ࿣࿠ 68 ࢁ࡚ ޹ଠ࿠ 40 ԣҪ ޛࢤ 50 ґా ༸հ 68 एࢁ ప 57 ༗അ Ղ೫ 64 ࿨ઘ ګࢠ 76 ؠҪ ඒՂ 43 ߐ઒ ༝Ӊ 90 ਆ୩ ࣿق 58 ๺઒ ઍՂࢠ 38 ࡔా Ѫࡊ 38 ਿా ඒՂ 43 ⁋ຊ ᜫ 58 ౔୩ ே߳ 60 Ӭ੉ ͘ΔΈ 48 দ໦ ಹಸ 45 ଜҪ ݁ࢠ 24 ए௬ ·Έ 36 Group B Test A ؠӬ ࿡࿠ 52 ২໦ ҭೋ 59 ย੉ ཽ໵ 61 ࡔݩ ᠳଠ 76 ౡଜ ༏ 45 ৓ా ௕ར 68 ௕୔ ஌࢙ 63 দҪ Ұಙ 69 ࡾݪ ༟࣍࿠ 43 क԰ ཽ࣍ 51 ੨໺ Έ͋ 36 ஑୩ ༏ 51 ؠ୩ ౧ࢠ 39 ্ݪ ܠࢠ 71 ߐޱ Ί͙Έ 26 ٴ઒ ͳͭΈ 79 େ௩ ·͞Έ 55 Ԭ໺ ࿏ࢠ 61 ֯ా ౧ࢠ 89 ઒୺ ݁ҥ 51 ਆށ ࡊʑඒ 71 ֎ࢁ Έ͋ 63 রҪ Έ͖ 41 ࠜ؛ ༏ 41 ࠜ؛ ྱࢠ 83 Ӌా ѥر 93 ෱࢜ ΈΏ͖ 47 ෍ࢪ ༑߳ 37 ଜా จੈ 52 ٢Ӭ ܙས߳ 41 ൺ΂ͯΈΑ͏ How?
9. ൺ΂ͯΈΑ͏ σʔλͷཁ໿
10. ൺ΂ͯΈΑ͏ Group A Group B ฏۉ஋ 52.1 57.1 ඪ४ภࠩ 15.1 16.4
11. ൺ΂ͯΈΑ͏ Group A Group B ฏۉ஋ 52.1 57.1 ඪ४ภࠩ 15.1 16.4 ෼෍ͷ޿͕Γ σʔλͷத৺
12. ൺ΂ͯΈΑ͏ Group A Group B 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030
13. ൺ΂ͯΈΑ͏ Group A Group B 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030
14. ൺ΂ͯΈΑ͏ ฏۉ஋ͷࠩ Group A Group B Group A Group B ฏۉ஋ 52.1 57.1 ඪ४ภࠩ 15.1 16.4 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 ෼෍ͷҧ͍
15. ඪ४ภࠩ
16. ඪ४ภࠩ ෼෍ͷ޿͕Γʢ͹Β͖ͭʣ
17. • ݸʑͷ਺஋ͱฏۉ஋ͱͷࠩΛ̎৐͠ɺ
 ͦͷ߹ܭΛσʔλͷ਺Ͱׂͬͨ΋ͷͷฏํࠜ ඪ४ภࠩ Group A Test A খ૔ ರ 70 Տ੢ େޒ࿠ 38 খਿ Ꮺ 58 ௶Ҫ ج༞ 48 ӬҪ ج༞ 28 ڮޱ ๏࢚ 54 ݪ ཽ໵ 58 ޿੉ ༎ 38 ౻ా ࢰಐ 42 (70-52.1)2 = 320.4 (38-52.1)2 = 198.8 (58-52.1)2 = 034.8 . . . ߹ܭ 6828.7 /30 = 227.6 √ 227.6 = 15.1 Group A ฏۉ஋ 52.1 ඪ४ภࠩ 15.1 ←ʢ෼ࢄʣ
18. 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 ฏۉ஋ = 50 ͷ৔߹ ඪ४ภࠩ = 10 ඪ४ภࠩ = 20 34.1% 13.6% 34.1% 34.1% 13.6% 34.1% 13.6% 13.6% ඪ४ภࠩ
19. 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 ฏۉ஋ = 50 ͷ৔߹ ඪ४ภࠩ ඪ४ภࠩ = 10 ඪ४ภࠩ = 20
20. ʢ٢ా, 1998, p. 173ʣ ඪ४ภࠩ
21. ʢ٢ా, 1998, p. 173ʣ ඪ४ภࠩ ࠩ͸ಉ͡
22. ඪ४ภࠩ ॏͳΓͷྔ͕ҧ͏
23. ݴ͑ͦ͏ͳ͜ͱ • ฏۉ஋ͷൺֱ͚ͩͰ͸ෆे෼ • σʔλͷ෼෍ʢ޿͕Γʣ΋߹Θͤͯݕ౼ • ෼෍ͷॏͳΓ͕গͳ͍ํ͕͕ࠩେ͖͍
24. ΋͏Ұ౓ൺ΂ͯΈΑ͏ Group A Group B 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030
25. ΋͏Ұ౓ൺ΂ͯΈΑ͏ 0" 1" 2" 3" 4" 5" 6" 7" 8" 9" 0,10" 11,20" 21,30" 31,40" 41,50" 51,60" 61,70" 71,80" 81,90" 91,100" Group"A" Group"B" ࣮ࡍͷ෼෍Λϓϩοτͨ͠΋ͷ
26. ΋͏Ұ౓ൺ΂ͯΈΑ͏ 0" 1" 2" 3" 4" 5" 6" 7" 8" 9" 0,10" 11,20" 21,30" 31,40" 41,50" 51,60" 61,70" 71,80" 81,90" 91,100" Group"A" Group"B" ͜ͷॏͳΓ͸େ͖͍ͷʁখ͍͞ͷʁ
27. ࢦඪ͕΄͍͠
28. ޮՌྔʢEffect Sizeʣ
29. ޮՌྔʢEffect Sizeʣ • ޮՌͷେ͖͞Λ͋ΒΘ͢౷ܭతͳࢦඪ
 ʢେٱอɾԬా, 2012, p. 44ʣ • ඪຊαΠζʢe.g., ਓ਺ʣʹґଘ͠ͳ͍
30. ༗ҙੑͱޮՌྔ
31. Figure 1. (N = 10) Figure 2. (N = 119) r = .627 r = .184 p = .052 p = .045 > ༗ҙͰͳ͍ʛ༗ҙ 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 3 6 9 12 15 0 3 6 9 12 15
32. ʮʢ౷ܭతʣ༗ҙʯͱ͸ • ໨ͷલͷσʔλʢඪຊʣ͔ΒΑΓେ͖ͳจ຺ ʢ฼ूஂʣΛਪఆ͢Δ • ඪຊͰ؍࡯͞ΕΔࠩɾؔ܎͕ɺ฼ूஂ͔Βͷ ඪຊநग़࣌ͷޡࠩͰੜ͡Δ֬཰ʢp ஋ʣΛ
 ܭࢉ͢Δ • p ஋͕ج४஋ʢྟք஋ʣҎԼͰ͋Ε͹ʮ༗ҙʯ Ͱ͋ΔʢޡࠩͰ͸ͳ͍ʣͱ൑அ͢Δ
33. ʮʢ౷ܭతʣ༗ҙʯͱ͸ • ૬ؔ෼ੳͷ৔߹ɺඪຊͰݟΒΕΔ૬͕ؔແ૬ ؔʢ૬ؔθϩʣͷ฼ूஂ͔Βͷඪຊநग़࣌ͷ ޡࠩͰੜ͡Δ֬཰ʢp ஋ʣΛܭࢉ͢Δ
34. ฼ूஂ ඪɹຊ ਪఆ σʔλղੳ Σ, F, t, p... ฼ूஂͱඪຊ
35. • ͋ΔඪຊͰಘΒΕͨ୅ද஋ʢe.g., ฏۉʣ ͱ฼ूஂͷ୅ද஋ͱͷࠩ ඪຊޡࠩ
36. ฼ूஂ
 μ = 15.3 ඪຊA
 M = 14.7 ඪຊB
 M = 15.9 ඪຊC
 M = 15.2 ඪຊD
 M = 15.4 ඪຊE
 M = 15.1
37. ฼ूஂ
 μ = 14.7 ඪຊA
 M = 14.7 ࣮ࡍ͸ M = μ ͱͯ͠ਪఆ
38. • ඪຊͷαΠζ͕େ͖͚Ε͹େ͖͍΄Ͳɺ ඪຊޡࠩ͸খ͘͞ͳΔ • ͭ·Γਪఆͷਫ਼౓͕ߴ͘ͳΔ ඪຊޡࠩ
39. N 3 4 5 10 20 30 ྟք஋ (α = .05) 0.997 0.950 0.878 0.632 0.444 0.361 N 40 50 100 200 500 1000 ྟք஋ (α = .05) 0.312 0.279 0.197 0.139 0.088 0.062 *͜ΕΑΓେ͖͍਺஋ͩͬͨΒۮવͰͳ͍ͱΈͳ͢ ૬ؔ܎਺ʢrʣͱྟք஋*
40. ʢ٢ా, 1998, p. 75ʣ ૬ؔ܎਺ʢrʣͷҙຯ
41. Figure 1. (N = 10) Figure 2. (N = 119) r = .627 r = .184 p = .052 p = .045 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 3 6 9 12 15 0 3 6 9 12 15 ΋͏Ұ౓ൺ΂ͯΈΑ͏
42. ༗ҙͳࠩʢ·ͨ͸ɺ༗ҙͳ૬ؔʣ͕ಘΒΕ΍͍͢ݚڀΛ͢ΔͨΊ ͷ͖ΘΊͯ༗ޮͳํ๏͕͋Γ·͢ɻͦΕ͸ɺͱʹ͔͘ଟ͘ͷσʔ λΛूΊΔ͜ͱͰ͢ɻͳͥͳΒ͹ɽɽɽ౷ܭతݕఆͷ݁Ռ͸σʔ λ਺͕ଟ͍΄Ͳ༗ҙʹͳΓ΍͍͔͢ΒͰ͢ɻͦͷͨΊɺσʔλ਺ Λ૿΍͑͢͠͞Ε͹ɺ͖ΘΊͯখ͞ͳࠩͰ΋ “ʢ౷ܭతʹ͸ʣ༗ ҙͰ͋Δ” ͱ͍͏݁ՌʹͳΔՄೳੑ͕ߴ·Γ·͢ɻྫ͑͹ɺN = 1000 ͷ৔߹ʹ͸ɺr = 0.062 ͱ͍͏͖ΘΊͯখ͞ͳ૬ؔ܎਺ʢ͢ ͳΘͪɺඇৗʹऑ͍ؔ܎ʣͰ΋༗ҙʹͳΓ·͢ɽɽɽɻ͜ͷΑ͏ ʹɺ౷ܭతਪఆʹ͸ɺ“σʔλ਺ͱ͍͏ɺݚڀऀ͕೚ҙʹܾΊΒ ΕΔཁҼʹΑͬͯ݁Ռ͕ࠨӈ͞Εͯ͠·͏” ͱ͍͏ࠜຊతͳ໰୊ ͕͋Γ·͢ɻʢ٢ా, 1998, p. 232; Լઢ͸Ӝ໺ʹΑΔʣ ༗ҙੑݕఆͱඪຊαΠζ
43. Ͳ͏͢Δʁ
44. • ࠩ΍ؔ܎Λද͢ɺඪຊαΠζʹ
 ґଘ͠ͳ͍ࢦඪ͕΄͍͠ • ͦΕ͕ޮՌྔʢeffect sizeʣ • ࣮͸૬ؔ܎਺ r ΋ޮՌྔͷࢦඪʢޙड़ʣ
45. ޮՌྔͷछྨ
46. • ࠩͷେ͖͞Λද͢ࢦඪʢd ଒ʣ • ؔ܎ͷڧ͞Λද͢ࢦඪʢr ଒ʣ େ͖͘෼͚ͯ̎ͭ
47. ࠩͷେ͖͞Λද͢ࢦඪ Cohen’s d
48. pooled SD X X d 2 1 − = ←ɹฏۉͷࠩ ←ɹඪ४ภࠩ Cohen’s d ʮ̎ͭͷάϧʔϓͷࠩ͸ඪ४ภࠩԿݸ෼ʯ
49. pooled SD X X d 2 1 − = | 52.1 - 57.1| = (15.1 + 16.4) / 2* *ඪຊαΠζ͕ҟͳΔͱ͖ɺSDpooled ͷܭࢉ͸΋͏গ͠ෳࡶʹͳΓ·͢ Cohen’s d Group A Group B ฏۉ஋ 52.1 57.1 ඪ४ภࠩ 15.1 16.4
50. pooled SD X X d 2 1 − = 5.0 = 15.75 *ඪຊαΠζ͕ҟͳΔͱ͖ɺSDpooled ͷܭࢉ͸΋͏গ͠ෳࡶʹͳΓ·͢ Cohen’s d Group A Group B ฏۉ஋ 52.1 57.1 ඪ४ภࠩ 15.1 16.4 = 0.32
51. d 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 ॏͳΓ ʢˋʣ 100 92.3 85.7 78.7 72.6 67 61.8 d 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 ॏͳΓ ʢˋʣ 57 52.6 48.4 44.6 41.1 37.8 34.7 ޮՌྔ d ͱ෼෍ͷॏͳΓ
52. 0" 1" 2" 3" 4" 5" 6" 7" 8" 9" 0,10" 11,20" 21,30" 31,40" 41,50" 51,60" 61,70" 71,80" 81,90" 91,100" Group"A" Group"B" d = 0.32 ͳͷͰॏͳΓ͸ 3/4 ͙Β͍ ࠶ͼ͜ͷάϥϑ
53. ͭ·Γ
54. Group A ͱ Group B ͸ɺ ฏۉ఺ʹ 5 ఺͕ࠩ͋Δ͕ɺ શମͷ 3/4 ͸ॏͳ͍ͬͯΔɻ
55. ޮՌྔ d ͱॏͳΓͷؔ܎
56. pooled SD X X d 2 1 − = ←ɹখ͍͞ํ͕ྑ͍ ←ɹେ͖͍ํ͕ྑ͍ d ஋͕େ͖͘ͳΔʹ͸ ʮฏۉͷ͕ࠩେ͖͘ɺඪ४ภ͕ࠩখ͘͞ͳΔͱɺ ޮՌྔ͸େ͖͘ͳΔɻʯ
57. ޮՌྔͷղऍ
58. • Cohen (1988) • small: d = 0.2, overlap: 85.7% • e.g., 15ࡀͱ16ࡀͷঁࢠͷ਎௕ࠩ • medium: d = 0.5, overlap: 67.0% • e.g., 14ࡀͱ18ࡀͷঁࢠͷ਎௕ࠩ • large: d = 0.8, overlap: 52.6% • e.g., େֶ৽ೖੜͱPhDऔಘऀͷIQࠩ ޮՌྔͷղऍ
59. • Plonsky & Oswald (2014) • “L2 field-specific benchmarks” ޮՌྔͷղऍ ܈ؒൺֱ ܈಺ൺֱ small d = 0.40 d = 0.60 medium d = 0.70 d = 1.00 large d = 1.00 d = 1.40
60. ͨͩ͠
61. • ͜ͷΑ͏ͳࢦඪ͸͋͘·Ͱ໨҆ • ࣮ࡍͷղऍ͸ݚڀऀࣗ਎ͷ੹೚Ͱ
62. ༗ҙੑݕఆ
63. ༗ҙੑݕఆ ॏͳΓͷେ͖͞͸Θ͔͚ͬͨͲɺ
 ͜ͷࠩ͸ۮવʁ
64. ༗ҙੑݕఆ ؍࡯͞Ε͕ͨࠩۮવੜͨ͡΋ͷͰ͋Δ Մೳੑʢ֬཰ʣΛܭࢉ͠·͠ΐ͏
65. t ݕఆ
66. t ݕఆ ← ฏۉͷࠩ ← ඪ४ภࠩ2ͷ࿨
 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 − + − = n SD SD X X t ↑ ʢ֤܈ͷඪຊαΠζʣ ʢඪຊαΠζ͕౳͍͠৔߹ʣ ʢ٢ా, 1998, p. 186ʣ
67. ͜Ε͖ͬ͞ݟͨʁ
68. pooled SD X X d 2 1 − = ←ɹฏۉͷࠩ ←ɹඪ४ภࠩ Cohen’s d ʮ͜Εʹ n Λ଍͢ͱ t ͬΆ͍ʂʯ
69. pooled SD X X d 2 1 − = 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 − + − = n SD SD X X t ʮt ͸ɺޮՌྔʹඪຊαΠζΛՃຯͨ͠΋ͷʯ
70. ←ɹখ͍͞ํ͕ྑ͍ ←ɹେ͖͍ํ͕ྑ͍ t ஋͕େ͖͘ͳΔʹ͸ 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 − + − = n SD SD X X t ↑ɹେ͖͍ํ͕ྑ͍
71. n 1 2 3 4 5 ྟք஋ ྆ଆݕఆ5% 12.71 4.3 3.18 2.78 2.57 n 10 20 50 100 200 ྟք஋ ྆ଆݕఆ5% 2.23 2.09 2.01 1.98 1.97 *͜ΕΑΓେ͖͍਺஋ͩͬͨΒۮવͰͳ͍ͱΈͳ͢ t ͷྟք஋*
72. 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 − + − = n SD SD X X t *2܈Ͱ n ͕ҟͳΔͱ͖ͷܭࢉ͸΋ 
 ͏গ͠ෳࡶʹͳΓ·͢ * | 52.1-57.1| = √(15.32 + 16.72) / (30 - 1) ܭࢉͯ͠ΈΑ͏ Group A Group B ฏۉ஋ 52.1 57.1 ඪ४ภࠩ** 15.3 16.7 **ਪଌ౷ܭʢ༗ҙੑݕఆʣͰ࢖͏ͷ͸
 ෆภ෼ࢄʹجͮ͘ඪ४ภࠩɻn ͷ
 ୅ΘΓʹ n–1 Λܭࢉʹ࢖͍·͢ɻ
73. 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 − + − = n SD SD X X t * 5 = 4.21 ܭࢉͯ͠ΈΑ͏ = 1.18 Group A Group B ฏۉ஋ 52.1 57.1 ඪ४ภࠩ** 15.3 16.7 *2܈Ͱ n ͕ҟͳΔͱ͖ͷܭࢉ͸΋ 
 ͏গ͠ෳࡶʹͳΓ·͢ **ਪଌ౷ܭʢ༗ҙੑݕఆʣͰ࢖͏ͷ͸
 ෆภ෼ࢄʹجͮ͘ඪ४ภࠩɻn ͷ
 ୅ΘΓʹ n–1 Λܭࢉʹ࢖͍·͢ɻ
74. n 1 2 3 4 5 ྟք஋ ྆ଆݕఆ5% 12.71 4.3 3.18 2.78 2.57 n 10 20 50 100 200 ྟք஋ ྆ଆݕఆ5% 2.23 2.09 2.01 1.98 1.97 t ͷྟք஋ t = 1.18 ͸༗ҙͰͳ͍
75. ͜͜·Ͱͷ·ͱΊ
76. • ޮՌྔ Cohen’s d • 2ͭͷάϧʔϓؒͷࠩΛඪ४Խͨ͠΋ͷ • t ݕఆ • ޮՌྔʹඪຊޡࠩͷӨڹΛՃຯͯ͠ɺͦͷ͕ࠩ ۮવ؍࡯͞ΕΔ֬཰Λࣔͨ͠΋ͷ • ݕఆ౷ܭྔ = ޮՌͷେ͖͞ x ඪຊͷେ͖͞ ʢೆ෩ݪ, 2002, p. 163ʣ
77. • Cohen’s d ͷ஥ؒ: • Hedges’ g • ෼฼ʹ฼ूஂͷඪ४ภࠩʢෆภ෼ࢄʹ جͮ͘ඪ४ภࠩʣΛ࢖͏ • Glass’ ⊿ • ෼฼ʹ౷੍܈ͷඪ४ภࠩΛ࢖͏
78. ؔ܎ͷڧ͞Λද͢ࢦඪ Pearson’s r / r2
79. • ม਺ؒͷؔ܎ͷେ͖͞Λද͢ • ࠷େ: 1.0ʢઈର஋ʣ • ࠷খ: 0 • ϐΞιϯͷੵ཰૬ؔ܎਺ r • r2 ʢ෼ࢄઆ໌཰ʣ Pearson’s r / r2
80. ෼ࢄ෼ੳͷ৔߹
81. ෼ࢄ෼ੳͷ৔߹ ௐ΂͍ͨཁҼͷ෼ࢄ η2 = ૯෼ࢄ SSA = SST
82. ҰཁҼ෼ࢄ෼ੳ SS df MS F p η2 A 847.609 2 423.805 0.955 .389 .022 Error 37259.655 84 443.567 Total 38107.264 MacR ʹ෇ଐͷσʔλΛ࢖ͬͯ MacR Ͱܭࢉ
83. ҰཁҼ෼ࢄ෼ੳ SS df MS F p η2 A 847.609 2 423.805 0.955 .389 .022 Error 37259.655 84 443.567 Total 38107.264 / = / = MS = SS / df
84. ҰཁҼ෼ࢄ෼ੳ SS df MS F p η2 A 847.609 2 423.805 0.955 .389 .022 Error 37259.655 84 443.567 Total 38107.264 / = ↑ɹඪຊαΠζ͕େ͖͍ͱ F ஋͕େ͖͘ͳΔ F = MSA / MSE = 423.805 / 443.567 = 0.955
85. ҰཁҼ෼ࢄ෼ੳ SS df MS F p η2 A 847.609 2 423.805 0.955 .389 .022 Error 37259.655 84 443.567 Total 38107.264 + = η2 = SSA / SST = 847.609 / 38107.264 = .022
86. ޮՌྔͷղऍ
87. • small: η2 = .01 • medium: η2 = .06 • large: η2 = .14 ਫຊɾ஛಺ (2008) • ͜ͷΑ͏ͳࢦඪ͸͋͘·Ͱ໨҆ • ࣮ࡍͷղऍ͸ݚڀऀࣗ਎ͷ੹೚Ͱ
88. ͜͜·Ͱͷ·ͱΊ
89. • r ଒ͷޮՌྔ • ม਺ؒͷؔ܎ͷڧ͞Λ਺஋Ͱࣔͨ͠΋ͷ • ࠷େͰ 1.0ɺ࠷খͰ 0 • ෼ࢄ෼ੳͰ࢖͏ η2 ͸ r2 ͱࣅͨײ͡ • F ͱ η2 ͷҧ͍͸ඪຊαΠζΛߟྀ͢Δ͔Ͳ͏͔ • ݕఆ౷ܭྔ = ޮՌͷେ͖͞ x ඪຊͷେ͖͞ ʢೆ෩ݪ, 2002, p. 163ʣ
90. • η2 ͷ஥ؒ: • partial η2 • ෼฼ʹ SSA + SSE Λ࢖͏ • ω2 • ฼෼ࢄਪఆͷͨΊͷόΠΞεΛऔΓআ ͍ͨ΋ͷ
91. ޮՌྔͷ৴པ۠ؒ
92. ޮՌྔͷ৴པ۠ؒ • ฼ूஂͷਪఆΛલఏͱ͢ΔޮՌྔ͸఺ਪఆ • ඪຊޡࠩΛߟྀ͢Δඞཁ͕͋Δ • ޮՌྔͷ۠ؒਪఆ΋ߦ͏ͱΑ͍
93. • ఺ਪఆ • ฼ूஂΛ୅ද͢Δ఺ͷਪఆ • ۠ؒਪఆ • ఺ਪఆͷ͹Β͖ͭͷਪఆ • ৴པ۠ؒ • ͋Δ֬཰ʢe.g., 95%ʣͰਪఆ͞Εͨ۠ؒ ޮՌྔͷ৴པ۠ؒ
94. ࣮ࡍʹ ܭࢉͯ͠Έ·͠ΐ͏
95. http://www.mizumot.com/stats/effectsize.xls ޮՌྔͷܭࢉγʔτ
96. http://www.mizumot.com/stats/effectsize.xls
97. Cohen’s d Λܭࢉͯ͠ΈΑ͏
98. Cohen’s d Λܭࢉͯ͠ΈΑ͏
99. Cohen’s d Λܭࢉͯ͠ΈΑ͏
100. Cohen’s d Λܭࢉͯ͠ΈΑ͏
101. η2 Λܭࢉͯ͠ΈΑ͏
102. η2 Λܭࢉͯ͠ΈΑ͏
103. http://www.langtest.jp Effect Size Calculator @
104. • σʔλ෼ੳ͕ͳΜͰ΋
 Ͱ͖ͪΌ͏΋ͷ͍͢͝
 ΢ΣϒΞϓϦ • ޮՌྔ d, g ͱͦͷ৴པ۠ ؒΛܭࢉͯ͘͠ΕΔ • ਫຊಞ͞Μʢؔ੢େֶʣ ͕։ൃ͠ɺແྉͰެ։ • ͓ྱ͸Ϗʔϧ·ͨ͸
 νϣίϨʔτͰ
109. ࢀߟจݙ
110. ࢀߟจݙ • ӳޠڭࢣͷͨΊͷڭҭσʔλ ෼ੳೖ໳ • ༗ҙੑݕఆͷ͘͠Έ΍ͦͷݶ քʹ͍ͭͯ΋ղઆ
111. ࢀߟจݙ • ຊ౰ʹΘ͔Γ΍͍͘͢͢͝େ ੾ͳ͜ͱ͕ॻ͍ͯΔ͘͝ॳา ͷ౷ܭͷຊ • େ੾ͳ͜ͱΛ਺ࣜΛަ͑ͯஸ ೡʹղઆ
112. ࢀߟจݙ • ֎ࠃޠڭҭݚڀϋϯυϒοΫ • هड़౷ܭɺਪଌ౷ܭɺޮՌྔ ΋ؚΊͯ໢ཏతͳҰ࡭
113. ࢀߟจݙ • ఻͑ΔͨΊͷ৺ཧ౷ܭ • ޮՌྔʹ͍ͭͯษڧ͢ΔͳΒ ඞಡ
114. ࢀߟจݙ • ͸͡Ίͯͷӳޠڭҭݚڀ • ݚڀͷೖޱΛղઆ͢ΔҰ࡭ɻ ࠓ೔ͷ಺༰͸ୈ6ষΛิ଍͢ Δ΋ͷ
115. 1. ෼෍ͱඪ४ภࠩ 2. ༗ҙੑʢݕఆʣͱޮՌྔ 3. ޮՌྔͷछྨ • ࠩͷେ͖͞Λද͢ d ଒ • ؔ܎ͷڧ͞Λද͢ r ଒ 4. ޮՌྔͷ৴པ۠ؒ 5. ޮՌྔͷܭࢉ Ken Urano urano@hgu.jp http://bit.ly/let2016ws ྔతσʔλΛѻ͏ͱ͖ʹ ஌͓͖͍ͬͯͨ͜ͱ —σʔλͷ෼෍ɺ༗ҙੑɺޮՌྔɺ৴པ۠ؒ—
116. ࢀߟจݙ • Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Earlbaum Associates. • ೆ෩ݪே࿨. (2002). ʰ৺ཧ౷ܭֶͷجૅ: ౷߹తཧղͷͨΊʹʱ౦ژ: ༗൹ֳ. • લాܒ࿕ɾࢁ৿ޫཅ (ฤ). (2004). ʰӳޠڭࢣͷͨΊͷڭҭσʔλ෼ੳೖ໳: तۀ͕มΘ ΔςετɾධՁɾݚڀʱ౦ژ: େमؗॻళ. • ਫຊಞɾ஛಺ཧ. (2008). ʮݚڀ࿦จʹ͓͚ΔޮՌྔͷใࠂͷͨΊʹ: جૅత֓೦ͱ஫ҙ ఺ʯʰӳޠڭҭݚڀʱୈ31߸, 57–66. Retrieved from http://www.mizumot.com/files/ EffectSize_KELES31.pdf • େٱอ֗ѥɾԬాݠհ. (2012). ʰ఻͑ΔͨΊͷ৺ཧ౷ܭ: ޮՌྔɾ৴པ۠ؒɾݕఆྗʱ ౦ژ: Ⴛ૲ॻ๪. • Plonsly, L., & Oswald, F. (2014). How big is “big”? Interpreting effect Sizes in L2 research. Language Learning, 64, 878–912. doi:10.1111/lang.12079 • ஛಺ཧɾਫຊಞ (ฤ). (2014). ʰ֎ࠃޠڭҭݚڀϋϯυϒοΫ: ݚڀख๏ͷΑΓྑ͍ཧղ ͷͨΊʹ (վగ൛)ʱ౦ژ: দദࣾ. • Ӝ໺ݚɾ࿱ཧཅҰɾాத෢෉ɾ౻ా୎࿠ɾ∁໦ѥرࢠɾञҪӳथ. (2016). ʰ͸͡Ίͯͷ ӳޠڭҭݚڀ: ԡ͓͖͍͑ͯͨ͞ίπͱϙΠϯτʱ౦ژ: ݚڀࣾ. • ٢ాण෉. (1998). ʰຊ౰ʹΘ͔Γ΍͍͘͢͢͝େ੾ͳ͜ͱ͕ॻ͍ͯ͋Δ͘͝ॳาͷ౷ܭ ͷຊʱژ౎: ๺େ࿏ॻ๪.