Webinar Covid-19 Forecasts - July 2020 - iCopilots

The slides for my July 2020 webinar for THALES Group, on how to project the outputs of the covid crisis for different markets and a discussion on how to do "Retrograde Analysis".

More on this at https://www.icopilots.com/innovation-radar/covid-19-crisis-pestel-predictions-part-2-19737

Transcript

1. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese My perspective on the current crisis as an innovator involved in leveraging disruptions in many vertical markets, from Europe to China. Philippe MÉDA www.icopilots.com
2. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese The difference between an optimist and a pessimist is that the pessimist is usually better informed. Clare BOOTHE LUCE © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese
3. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese This crisis is a network effect crisis. Because of connectedness and exponential nature, it can’t be solved by a simple remedy, but requires a cocktail of adjustments. This is core di f f i culties for large corps: there will be no silver bullet.
4. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese Politics 1. A new multilateral cold war (way beyond a 3-year horizon). 2. Europe has a unique chance to take over US domination (will not). Is it smart to relocate productions ? No, this depends on government subsidies which have dry out after the various global stimulus packages. Major companies like Airbus / Boeing face a double crunch (market and geopolitical) . BUT, Europe is a +450m market with social cover where consumers don’t go bankrupt or don’t face $50,00 dollar bills after 2 days in intensive care. ALSO betting on China crisis resilience?
5. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese Economy 1. We’re heading into a 2 year recession period. 2. Most of the 2008’s tech boom will grind to a stop and we’ll see a return of the dinosaurs (with a twist). 3. B2C Startups will enter a “nuclear winter”. Past the post-con f i nement rebound, consumers will be ultra conservative in their purchasing. GAFAMs and other incumbents with signi f i cative free cash f l ow will attract remaining investors and will keep on accelerating. BUT the BATXs will pass ahead of the GAFAMs earlier than expected (2021?) . ALSO a lot of VC and pivate equity in innovation is linked to real-estate investors and this will show (« swimming naked »). Innovation play f i eld is reopen for large corps (not everyone got the memo).
6. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese Society 1. Containing unemployment will be the overarching theme. 2. Risk-aversion will drive the global consumer mindset. 3. Sustainability and eco-responsibility will be shut down in the short term. Risk-aversion is the new normal across all consumer markets. Return to traditional values, feel-good products and family-oriented brands. ALSO signi f i cative progression in the luxury market . BUT, bo ZOOM and others will not take-over, because UNEMPLOYMENT ! GAFAM will not be attacked as monopolies in the US because UNEMPLOYENT (also positioning as utility company — Amazon is leading there) . GAFAM wil be attacked in EU because TAXES.
7. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese Technology 1. Back to hard tech and science. 2. End of corporate innovation lab (where’s the ROI?) 3. GAFAM pushing in the surveillance economy. Despite con f i nement rise, B2C pizza delivery will grind to a halt (U word) . Deep tech will be reinforced to compensate, reinforcing corporate positioning. Surveillance economy and citizen privacy weakening will be key for the tech economy. BUT corporate innovation programs face a reckoning (where’s the ROI since 2012? ) ALSO f i ntech, urbanism, MaaS, energy will be the new black. 5G? Not driven by technology.
8. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese Environment 1. Environment will not be a priority anymore. 2. ... but China that will strategically reinforce green tech. 3. Indirect positive externalities when rebuilding for resiliency. CO2 Reduction program kept as a political façade in US, EU. India already back to coal . China wTier I cities are green within 5 years . China will start exporting EVs and green tech to Europe as soon as 2021. BUT some lateral repositioning (big cities affordability, cost of individual cars) will mean some positive impact.
9. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese Laws 1. The era of acceptable global surveillance. 2. Bailouts with strings attached. 3. New employment practices. Laws on surveillance economy softened in our democracies. This will reinforce China vision of internet (3 great f i rewalls by 2030?). Remote working will not survive the return to normal. BUT more f l exibility in work contracts and the rise of part-time might help push forward.
10. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese Why do we do predictions anyway? Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face. Mike Tyson © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese
11. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese Predictions in uncertain times are critical, not because we can see the future but because we can’t. What matters is mapping the intermediary steps leading to the prediction ful f i llment, or lack thereof. This is what gives perspective in reacting timely and with appropriate focus on these uncertainties. It also develop a better sense of the second order of consequences for decision-making.
12. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese PUZZLES Zero-sum games Optimal solution Obvious > Complicated Resources / Time Best practices Looking back Known unknowns Business Plans Roadmaps MYSTERIES Open systems Good enough solutions Complex > Chaotic Intuition / Time Emergent practices Looking forward Unknown unknowns Scenarios Portfolio
13. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese PUZZLES MYSTERIES Chunking 2nd Order of consequences Pattern analysis Bottleneck analysis Retrograde analysis Stepping-stone planning Scouting scenarios Risk portfolio Optionality R&D Pipeline Business plans PoCs Open innovation Startup studios Stop-gate innovation Market surveys White papers 2030 Strategic plan
14. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese Now Retrograde analysis Where is the future market? How to walk back to today? 5G 24m ?
15. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese Now 6m Retrograde analysis Where is the future market? How to walk back to today?
16. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese Now 6m 12m Retrograde analysis Where is the future market? How to walk back to today?
17. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese Now 6m 12m 18m Retrograde analysis Where is the future market? How to walk back to today?
18. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese Now 6m 12m 18m 24m Retrograde analysis Where is the future market? How to walk back to today?
19. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese favorable outcomes Retrograde analysis Where is the future market? How to walk back to today? outcome 1 outcome 2 outcome 2 Now 6m 12m 18m 24m
20. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese Scenario 1 Position 2 Position 2 critical path scenario Retrograde analysis Where is the future market? How to walk back to today? Now 6m 12m 18m 24m
21. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 2 Retrograde analysis Where is the future market? How to walk back to today? Now 6m 12m 18m 24m
22. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese key junctures Retrograde analysis Where is the future market? How to walk back to today? Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 2 Now 6m 12m 18m 24m
23. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese scout ahead of the curve Retrograde analysis Where is the future market? How to walk back to today? Scouting ROI? Business Head start! Now 6m 12m
24. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese hedge risks Scouting ROI? Business Head start! Retrograde analysis Where is the future market? How to walk back to today? Now 6m 12m
25. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese x x x x x x x x x x worst case? adapt Retrograde analysis Where is the future market? How to walk back to today? Scouting ROI? Business Head start! Now 6m 12m 18m 24m
26. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese Working in high uncertainties times... Chunking 2nd Order of consequences Pattern analysis Bottleneck analysis Retrograde analysis Stepping-stone planning Scouting scenarios Risk portfolio Optionality
27. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese If you ‘have optionality,’ you don’t have much need for what is commonly called intelligence, knowledge, insight, skills, and these complicated things that take place in our brain cells. Nassim Nicholas TALEB – Antifragile, 2012 © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese
28. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese Since March, 13 innovation is the core business of anyone aiming for long-term survival. High uncertainties require a speci f i c mindset such as building resilience around key investments by seeking multiple potential ROIs. Reallocating resources from pipelines and linear roadmap to portfolios of projects and divergent explorations. Or enforcing optionality instead of ‘big projects’ and ‘big visions’.
29. © 2020, Innovation Copilots B.V. All rights rese How do you build optionality? Keep 3 steps ahead of competition with a portfolio of fast scouting options before committing to strategic sunk costs. Prove them wrong as fast as possible. philippe@icopilots.com