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ICU 164 support material
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Nicolas Fauchereau
May 01, 2014
Science
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ICU 164 support material
preliminary support material for the ICU 164 teleconference (May - July 2014 forecast period)
Nicolas Fauchereau
May 01, 2014
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Transcript
Island Climate Update 164 Forecast period: May –
July2014 Teleconference Friday 2nd of May 2014 (11:30 AM NZ @me) 2/05/14 1
1) Some words on Rainfall / Convec@on, circula@on and SST
anomalies last month (April 2014) 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situa@on and forecast 3) Madden-‐Julian Oscilla@on (MJO) diagnos@cs and forecasts 4) METPI Rainfall Forecast 5) METPI SST Forecast 2/05/14 2 Outline
1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec<on) and SST in the SW Pacific
2/05/14 3
Rainfall anomalies and averages (TRMM) 2/05/14
4
2/05/14 5
2/05/14 6
2/05/14 7 • Well below = < 40
% of normal • Below = between 40 and 80 % • Normal = between 80 and 120 % • Above = between 120 and 160 % • Well above = > 160 % Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM) Experimental product
2/05/14 8 Circula<on anomalies: Geopoten<al at 1000hPa and
wind
SST anomalies March 2014 SST anomalies April 2014
2/05/14 9
2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa<on and forecast
2/05/14 10
SOI and SST NINO INDICES 2/05/14 Datasource =
BoM (h_p://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/) 11
The ENSO Precipita<on Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days
(1 May) is 1.29 (was 0.5 last month) SOI and ESPI INDICES 2/05/14 h_p://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html 12
Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies 2/05/14
13
Ocean sub-‐surface temp anomalies (TAO) 2/05/14 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14
h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
2/05/14 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 15 h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-‐10/ wksl_anm.gif
Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies
ENSO forecast © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal
Guidance) 2/05/14 16
3) MJO diagnos<cs and forecasts 2/05/14 17
Madden Julian Oscilla<on Monitoring (BoM) 2/05/14 h_p://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or
h_p://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/ 18
Madden Julian Oscilla<on Dynamical Forecast (CPC) 2/05/14 h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
19
Madden Julian Oscilla<on sta<s<cal Forecast (CPC) 2/05/14 h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
20
4) METPI Rainfall forecasts 2/05/14 21
2/05/14 22 MJJ 2014
2/05/14 23 METPI rainfall results
2/05/14 24 METPI rainfall results
6) METPI SST forecasts 2/05/14 25
2/05/14 26 SST anomalies April 2014
!"#$% &#&'( )'$ ) * +),-)."%./ )* / .+,-)."% 0 ./ )* / .+,-)."%12345 565 75 5 505 55435.* 8,*5 5+9: (&#& ' ) 9: (,5 ; 55 55 5 &*&+%*, /0#1 * $(:' 3 < !" #$ ! %&& ' "''(&& 011 * =>>% =) ) !" #$ ! %&& ' "''(&& &*&%
2/05/14 27 METPI SST results Not available
at present: will update ASAP