Measurement bias (Causal inference: What if, Chapter 9)

.&"463&.&/5#*"4 $BVTBM*OGFSFODF8IBU*G $IBQUFS ZVSJL!

*OUSPEVDUJPOʛݟ্͛ͷ࣮ݧʢʣ ʮࢲ͕ۭΛݟ্͛Δͱɼଞͷาߦऀ΋ۭΛݟ্͛Δͷ͔ʁʯ ϥϯμϜԽࢼݧΛ࣮ࢪ ⾒上げる⾒上げない ϥϯμϜԽࢼݧͳͷͰަབྷ͸ͳ͍ɼ͢΂ͯͷาߦऀΛه࿥ͨ͠ͷͰબ୒όΠΞε͸ͳ͍ ղੳͷ݁Ռɼऑ͍ؔ࿈ੑ͋Γʂ͜Ε͸ҼՌؔ܎ʁ

*OUSPEVDUJPOʛݟ্͛ͷ࣮ݧʢʣ Ұ͚ͭͩ໰୊͕͋ͬͨɽଌఆ͍ͯ͠Δਓͷϛε͕ଟ͔ͬͨʂ ݟ্͛ͨࣄྫͷ൒෼Λݟಀ͠ɼʮݟ্͍͛ͯͳ͍ʯͱه࿥ͨ͠ ̍ɽ ̎ɽ ̏ɽ ̐ɽ ̑ɽ ̒ɽ
̓ɽ

*OUSPEVDUJPOʛݟ্͛ͷ࣮ݧʢʣ ݚڀσʔλ͕ଌఆ͞ΕΔաఔͰɼؔ࿈͕ऑ·ͬͨΓڧ·ͬͨΓ͢Δ͜ͱΛ ଌఆόΠΞεʢ.FBTVSFNFOUCJBTʣ͕͋Δͱ͍͏ ଌఆόΠΞε͸ͲΜͳݚڀσβΠϯͰ΋ى͜Γ͏ΔͨΊɼ ޮՌਪఆ஋ͷղऍͷࡍʹ͸ߟྀ͕ඞཁ ࢲͷݟ্͛ ଞͷਓͷݟ্͛ USFBUNFOU PVUDPNF
݁Ռͷޡ෼ྨ͕͋ΔͱɼUSFBUNFOUͱ PVUDPNFͷؒʹڧ͍ؔ࿈͕͋ͬͯ΋ɼ ؔ࿈ΛऑΊͯ͠·͏ ？

.FBTVSFNFOUFSSPS 5IFTUSVDUVSFPGNFBTVSFNFOUFSSPS • 5FDIOJDBM1PJOU*OEFQFOEFODFBOEOPOEJGGFSFOUJBMJUZ • 'JOF1PJOU5IFTUSFOHUIBOEEJSFDUJPOPGNFBTVSFNFOUCJBT .JTNFBTVSFE DPOGPVOEFST *OUFOUJPOUPUSFBUFGGFDUUIFFGGFDUPGBNJTDMBTTJGJFEUSFBUNFOU •
5FDIOJDBM1PJOU5IFFYDMVTJPOSFTUSJDUJPO 1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDU • 'JOF1PJOU1FSQSPUPDPMBOBMZTFT • 'JOF1PJOU1TFVEPJOUFOUJPOUPUSFBUBOBMZTJT • 'JOF1PJOU&GGFDUJWFOFTTWFSTVTFGGJDBDZ .&"463&.&/5#*"4 1ʙ

ຊষͷཁ఺ .&"463&.&/5#*"4 1ʙ n ଌఆޡࠩ͸ͲΜͳݚڀσβΠϯͰ΋ൃੜ͢Δ n ଌఆόΠΞε͕͋Δͱɼ*EFOUJGJBCMFͷ৚݅͸ҼՌؔ܎ͷਪఆʹෆे෼ n ଌఆޡࠩͷߏ଄ʹ͸ɼͭͷλΠϓ͕͋Δʢิਖ਼ํ๏͸ͦΕͧΕҟͳΔʣ
n ަབྷҼࢠͷଌఆޡࠩʹΑͬͯ΋όΠΞε͕ൃੜ͢Δ n *55FGGFDU͸ɼׂΓ෇͚ΒΕͨ USFBUNFOU;ͷޮՌΛݟ͍ͯΔ ʢUSFBUNFOU;ͱ USFBUNFOU"ͷޮՌ͸ҧ͏ʣ n 1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUΛܭࢉ͢Δʹ͸ɼ3$5Λ؍࡯ݚڀͱͯ͠ ղੳ͢Δඞཁ͕͋Δ n ݚڀͷ४උஈ֊ͰɼଌఆόΠΞε͕ൃੜ͢Δ͜ͱΛߟྀͨ͠ݚڀܭըΛ ཱͯΔ͜ͱ͕ॏཁ

.FBTVSFNFOUFSSPS 6

͜Ε·ͰͷষͰ͸ɼ͢΂ͯͷม਺͕׬શʹଌఆ͞Ε͍ͯΔͱ͍͏ඇݱ࣮తͳԾఆͩͬͨ ͔͠͠ɼ࣮ࡍʹ͸ USFBUNFOU"ͷଌఆ͸ෆ׬શͳ͜ͱ͕ଟ͍ ྫ͑͹ʜ • Χϧς͔Βͷநग़ɾసهϛε • ҩࢣ͕ॲํༀΛॻ͖๨Ε͍ͯΔ • ױऀ͞Μ͕ॲํ͞ΕͨༀΛҿΈ๨ΕΔ
ͦͷͨΊɼ ղੳʹ࢖͏σʔλ͸ɼਅͷ USFBUNFOU"Ͱ͸ͳ͘؍࡯͞Εͨ USFBUNFOU" Ͱ͋Δ ؍࡯ݚڀʹ͓͚Δ՝୊͸ɼ؍࡯͞Εͨσʔλ͔Β؍࡯͞Εͯͳ͍ߏ੒ཁૉͷਪ࿦Λߦ͏͜ͱ .FBTVSFNFOUFSSPSͷൃੜ " ελνϯͷ࢖༻ : PVUDPNF " Χϧς͔Βऩूͨ͠ελνϯͷ࢖༻ 6" " ͷ஋Λܾఆ͢Δ "Ҏ֎ͷ͢΂ͯͷཁҼ ˞؆୯ͷͨΊ $POGPVOEJOHͱ 4FMFDUJPOCJBT͸ͳ͍ઃఆ 6" Λ "ͷ .FBTVSFNFOUFSSPSͱ͍͏ ඞͣ͠΋ "ͱҰக͠ͳ͍

:ʹ͓͍ͯ΋ಉ༷ʹɼ ਅͷ PVUDPNF:Ͱ͸ͳ͘ɼ؍࡯͞Εͨ PVUDPNF: ͕ಘΒΕΔ 6: Λ :ͷ .FBTVSFNFOUFSSPSͱ͍͏ .FBTVSFNFOUFSSPSͷൃੜ
ܭࢉ͍ͨ͠ͷ͸ "ˠ:ͷฏۉҼՌޮՌʢ"5&ɿBWFSBHFUSFBUNFOUFGGFDUʣ͕ͩɼ ؍ଌͰ͖Δͷ͸ " ͱ : Ͱ͋Γɼ"ˠ :ͱ " ˠ : ͕౳͘͠ͳΔอূ͸ͳ͍ .FBTVSFNFOUCJBTʢ*OGPSNBUJPOCJBTʣ͕͋Δͱ͍͏ .FBTVSFNFOUCJBT͕͋Δ৔߹ɼ *EFOUJGJBCMFͳ৚݅͸ҼՌؔ܎Λܭࢉ͢Δͷʹෆे෼Ͱ͋Δ ɾ&YDIBOHFBCJMJUZɼ$POTJTUFODZɼ1PTJUJWJUZ

5IFTUSVDUVSFPG NFBTVSFNFOUFSSPS 9

.FBTVSFNFOUFSSPSͷߏ଄ $POGPVOEJOH .FBTVSFNFOUFSSPSͷߏ଄͸ɼ ಠཱੑͱඇࠩҟੑͷੑ࣭ͷ૊Έ߹ΘͤʹΑΓ࣍ͷͭͷλΠϓʹ෼ྨͰ͖Δ • ಠཱඇࠩҟʢ*OEFQFOEFODFOPOEJGGFSFOUJBMʣ • ಠཱࠩҟʢ*OEFQFOEFODFEJGGFSFOUJBMʣ •
ґଘඇࠩҟʢ%FQFOEFODFOPOEJGGFSFOUJBMʣ • ґଘࠩҟʢ%FQFOEFODFOPOEJGGFSFOUJBMʣ ิਖ਼͢ΔͨΊʹ࢖༻Ͱ͖Δํ๏͸ɼͭͷλΠϓʹΑͬͯҟͳΔ ෮श 4FMFDUJPOCJBT "ͱ :ͷ DPNNPODBVTF "ͱ :ͷ DPNNPOFGGFDU

.FBTVSFNFOUFSSPSͷಠཱੑ ಠཱੑʢ*OEFQFOEFODFʣ ಠཱͨ͠Τϥʔ 6" ͱ 6: ͕ಠཱ %TFQBSBUJPOͷنଇʢ" ͱ
: ͕$PMMJEFSʣ ྫʣ"ͱ :ΛͲͪΒ΋Χϧς͔Βऩूͨ͠ ৔߹ͷΧϧς΁ͷೖྗϛε ґଘͨ͠Τϥʔ 6" ͱ 6: ͕ґଘ ྫʣ"ͱ :ͷͲͪΒ΋ױऀ͞Μ΁ͷ ి࿩ΠϯλϏϡʔͰऩूͨ͠৔߹ɼ ױऀ͞Μͷࢥ͍ग़͢ೳྗ 6": ͕ "ͱ :ͷଌఆʹӨڹΛ༩͑ͨ "ɿༀͷ࢖༻ :ɿ؊ಟੑ " ɿΧϧς͔Βऩूͨ͠ ༀͷ࢖༻ : ɿΧϧς͔Βऩूͨ͠ ؊ಟੑ 6" ɾ6: ɿΧϧς΁ͷ ೖྗϛε "ɿༀͷ࢖༻ :ɿ؊ಟੑ " ɿΠϯλϏϡʔͰऩूͨ͠ ༀͷ࢖༻ : ɿΠϯλϏϡʔͰऩूͨ͠ ؊ಟੑ 6" ɾ6: ɿױऀ͞ΜͷهԱ 6":ɿ ױऀ͞Μͷࢥ͍ग़͢ೳྗ ʁ

.FBTVSFNFOUFSSPSͷඇࠩҟੑ ඇࠩҟੑʢOPOEJGGFSFOUJBMJUZʣ "ɿༀͷ࢖༻ :ɿ؊ಟੑ " ɿΧϧς͔Βऩूͨ͠ ༀͷ࢖༻ : ɿΧϧς͔Βऩूͨ͠
؊ಟੑ 6" ɾ6: ɿΧϧς΁ͷ ೖྗϛε ඇࠩҟੑͷΤϥʔ 6" ͕ :͔Βಠཱɼ6: ͕ "͔Βಠཱ ࣏ྍʹؔ͢Δଌఆޡࠩ͸݁Ռʹରͯ͠ඇࠩҟੑɼ ݁Ռʹؔ͢Δଌఆޡࠩ͸࣏ྍʹରͯ͠ඇࠩҟੑ ͱ͍͏ ࠩҟੑͷΤϥʔ "͕ :ͷଌఆʹӨڹΛ༩͑Δʢٯ΋ಉ͡ʣ ྫʣ"ͷༀΛ࢖͏ͱ؊ಟੑΛى͜͢ͱٙ͏ҩࢣ͕ "ͷༀΛ౤༩͞Εͨױऀ͞ΜΛଞͷױऀ͞Μ ΑΓ΋஫ҙਂ͘؍࡯͢Δ ݁Ռʹؔ͢Δଌఆޡࠩ͸࣏ྍʹରͯࠩ͠ҟੑ Χϧςʹه࿥͞ΕΔ৘ใ͕ ΑΓਖ਼֬ʹͳΔʁ

3FDBMM CJBTͱ 3FWFSTFDBVTBMCJBT 3FDBMMCJBTʢ૝ىόΠΞεɾࢥ͍ग़͠όΠΞεʣ ྫʣ"ɿༀͷ࢖༻ɼ:ɿೝ஌঱ " ͸ฉ͖औΓʹΑΓऩू ೝ஌঱͸ɼༀͷ࢖༻ "Λࢥ͍ग़͢͜ͱʹӨڹΛ༩͑Δ
ྫʣ"ɿ೛৷தͷΞϧίʔϧઁऔྔɼ:ɿࣇͷઌఱੑܽଛ঱ͷ༗ແ ग़࢈ޙʹ೛৷தͷΞϧίʔϧઁऔྔΛ֬ೝͨ͠৔߹ɼ ग़࢈ͨ͠ࢠͲ΋͕ઌఱੑܽଛ঱Ͱ͋Δ͔Ͳ͏͔͕ɼ Ξϧίʔϧઁऔྔͷ૝ىʹӨڹΛ༩͑Δ ྫʣ"ɿༀͷ࢖༻ɼ:ɿ؊ಟੑɼ" ɿ݂தೱ౓ ༀͷ࢖༻ "ͷ୅ΘΓʹ݂தೱ౓ " Λ༻͍ͨ৔߹ɼ ؊ಟੑ :͕ଘࡏͨ͠ޙʹ݂தೱ౓ " Λଌఆ͢Δͱɼ ؊ಟੑ͸ༀࡎͷ݂தೱ౓ʹӨڹΛ༩͑Δʢ:ˠ 6" ʣ 3FWFSTFDBVTBMCJBT "ͷ୅ΘΓʹ݂தೱ౓ " Λࢦඪͱ ͨͨ͠Ίʹɼ:͔Β "ʹӨڹΛ ༩͍͑ͯΔΑ͏ʹݟ͑Δ͜ͱʁ " :

.FBTVSFNFOUFSSPSͷͭͷλΠϓ ಠཱඇࠩҟ ʢ*OEFQFOEFODFOPOEJGGFSFOUJBMʣ ґଘඇࠩҟ ʢ%FQFOEFODFOPOEJGGFSFOUJBMʣ ಠཱࠩҟ ʢ*OEFQFOEFODFEJGGFSFOUJBMʣ ґଘࠩҟ ʢ%FQFOEFODFOPOEJGGFSFOUJBMʣ
ม਺Λଌఆ͢Δͱ͍͏ߦҝ͸ɼ#JBTΛ΋ͨΒ͢͜ͱΛҙࣝ͢Δ͜ͱ %"(Ͱ͸ɼަབྷɼબ୒ɼଌఆ͔Βੜ͡ΔόΠΞεΛಉ࣌ʹද͢͜ͱ͕ඞཁ

5FDIOJDBM1PJOUʛಠཱੑͱඇࠩҟੑ USFBUNFOU"ͱ PVUDPNF:ͷଌఆޡࠩ 6" ͱ 6: ͸ɼ ಉ࣌෼෍ʢ KPJOU1%'ʣ͕पล෼෍ͷੵͱಉ࣌͡ɼಠཱͰ͋Δ
USFBUNFOU"ͷଌఆޡࠩ 6" ͷ 1%'͕ PVUDPNF:͔Βಠཱ͍ͯ͠Δ৔߹ɼඇࠩҟͰ͋Δ PVUDPNF:ͷଌఆޡࠩ 6: ͷ 1%'͕ USFBUNFOU"͔Βಠཱ͍ͯ͠Δ৔߹ɼඇࠩҟͰ͋Δ ͕֬཰ີ౓ؔ਺ʢ1%'ɿQSPCBCJMJUZEFOTJUZGVODUJPOʣΛ͋ΒΘ͢

'JOF1PJOUʛଌఆόΠΞεͷڧ͞ͱํ޲ੑ 7BOEFS8FFMF 5+ )FSOÂO ." 3FTVMUTPOEJGGFSFOUJBMBOEEFQFOEFOUNFBTVSFNFOUFSSPS PGUIFFYQPTVSFBOEUIFPVUDPNFVTJOHTJHOFEEJSFDUFEBDZDMJDHSBQIT"NFSJDBOKPVSOBMPG FQJEFNJPMPHZ
Ұൠతʹଌఆޡࠩ͸ɼଌఆόΠΞεΛ΋ͨΒ͢ ʢྫ֎ɿಠཱඇࠩҟͰ "ˠ :͕ /VMMͷͱ͖ɼ" ˠ : ΋ /VMMʣ ଌఆόΠΞε͸ɼ" ˠ : ͷؔ࿈Λ "ˠ:ͷؔ࿈ΑΓ΋ /VMMʹۙ͘΋ԕ͘΋͢Δ͠ɼ޲͖͕൓స͢Δ͜ͱ΋͋Δ ූ߸෇͖%"(Λ༻͍ͯɼґଘࠩҟͷଌఆޡࠩͷ΋ͱͰͷҼՌؔ܎ ͷଘࡏͱූ߸ʹ͍ͭͯ݁࿦Λಋ͖ɼͭͷλΠϓͷଌఆޡࠩʹద༻ ͢Δ lඇࠩҟੑͷଌఆޡࠩʹ͓͍ͯɼ#JOBSZͷ USFBUNFOUͱ PVUDPNF ʹ͍ͭͯ͸ํ޲ੑΛอ࣋͢Δʢ୯ௐੑʣͱ͍͏݁ՌzΛɼ PVUDPNFͷଌఆޡࠩͱґଘ PSBOEࠩҟΛؚΉઃఆʹҰൠԽ͢Δ ඇࠩҟੑͷ USFBUNFOUͷଌఆޡࠩʹ͍ͭͯɼਪఆ஋͸ /VMMʹ͚ۙͮͩ͘Ͱ͋ΔͱݴΘΕ͍ͯΔ͕ɼ #JOBSZͷ࣌͸ͦ͏Ͱ΋ɼͭҎ্ͷॱҐΧςΰϦͷ৔߹͸ɼ/VMM͔Β཭ΕͨΓ/VMMΛ௒͑Δ͜ͱ΋͋Δ %PTFNFDJ . 8BDIPMEFS 4 -VCJO +) %PFTOPOEJGGFSFOUJBMNJTDMBTTJGJDBUJPOPGFYQPTVSFBMXBZTCJBTBUSVFFGGFDUUPXBSEUIFOVMMWBMVF "NFSJDBO KPVSOBMPGFQJEFNJPMPHZ

.JTNFBTVSFE DPOGPVOEFST NFBTVSFNFOUFSSPS 17

ަབྷͷଌఆޡࠩʹΑΔ#JBTͷൃੜʢʣ $POGPVOEFSTͷଌఆޡ͕ࠩ͋Δͱɼ"ͱ :͕ਖ਼͘͠ଌఆ͞Ε͍ͯͯ΋ #JBT͕ੜ͡Δ "ɿༀͷ࢖༻ :ɿ؊࣬ױ -ɿ؊Ԍͷطԟྺ - ɿ࣭໰ථͰऩूͨ͠؊Ԍͷطԟྺ
؊Ԍͷطԟྺ͕Χϧς͔ΒಘΒΕͣɼױऀ͞Μ΁ͷ࣭໰ථʹΑΓऩूͨ͠ ࣭໰ථͰऩूͨ͠طԟྺ - ͸ɼਖ਼֬Ͱ͸ͳ͍Մೳੑ͕ߴ͍ ʢ஌ΒΕͨ͘ͳ͍ɼهԱೳྗɼهࡌϛεʣ ͔͠͠ɼղੳʹ༻͍Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δͷ͸ - - ͷ৚݅෇͚Ͱ͸όοΫυΞύεʢ"ˡ -ˠ :ʣΛϒϩοΫͰ͖ͳ͍ - ɼ"ɼ: ʹج͍ͮͯඪ४Խ͞ΕͨϦεΫൺ͸ɼҼՌϦεΫൺΑΓ΋େ͖͘ͳΔ ˠ ଌఆόΠΞεʢ৘ใόΠΞεʣ͕ൃੜ͍ͯ͠Δ -ͷޡଌఆͷྫ

ަབྷͷଌఆޡࠩʹΑΔ#JBTͷൃੜʢʣ -͕ "ͱ :ͷڞ௨ݪҼͰͳ͍ྫ "ɿༀͷ࢖༻ :ɿ؊࣬ױ -ɿ؊Ԍͷطԟྺ - ɿ࣭໰ථͰऩूͨ͠؊Ԍͷطԟྺ
6ɿະଌఆަབྷҼࢠ - ͷ৚݅෇͚Ͱ͸όοΫυΞύεΛϒϩοΫͰ͖ͳ͍ͨΊɼଌఆόΠΞε͕ൃੜ͢Δ • ަབྷҼࢠͷଌఆޡࠩʹΑΔόΠΞε͸ɼଌఆόΠΞεͰ͸ͳ͘ ະଌఆަབྷҼࢠʢGJHVSFʣͷ໰୊ͱͯ͠ΈΔ͜ͱ΋Ͱ͖Δ • - ͸ TVSSPHBUFDPOGPVOEFSʢGJHVSFʣͰ͋Δͱߟ͑Δ͜ͱ΋Ͱ͖Δ ˞༻ޠͷબ୒͸ॏཁͰ͸ͳ͍ $PMMJEFS$ͷଌఆޡࠩʹΑΓɼ$ ͕৚݅෇͚ΒΕͨ৔߹ɼ બ୒όΠΞε͕ಋೖ͞ΕΔ

ަབྷҼࢠͷଌఆޡࠩʹΑΓ ݟ্͔͚ͷޮՌʹมԽ͕ੜ͡Δ ʢ؊Ԍͷطԟྺ͋Γͱ ճ౴ͨ͠ױऀʣ ʢ؊Ԍͷطԟྺͳ͠ͱ ճ౴ͨ͠ױऀʣ શһ͕ - ຊ౰͸൒਺͕
- ʢ؊Ԍͷطԟ͋Γʣ "ˠ:͸ /VMM ʢTIBSQOVMMIZQPUIFTJTʣ ࣮ଌ஋ ਅ஋ ʹ 㱠 ղऍ • ަབྷͷ੍ޚͰ͖ͨ • "ˠ:ͷؔ࿈ੑͳ͠ • ަབྷͷ੍ޚ͕Ͱ͖ͯͳ͍ • "ˠ:ͷؔ࿈ੑ͋Γ • -͸ޮՌम০ࢠ ަབྷҼࢠͷଌఆޡࠩ - Λ༻͍ͯ૚͝ͱʹղੳ͢Δͱɼ" ˠ :͸ /VMMͰ͋Δʹ΋ ؔΘΒͣɼؔ࿈͕͋ΔΑ͏ʹݟ͑ͨΓɼ-ΛޮՌम০ࢠʢ&GGFDUNPEJGJFSʣͱ ղऍͯ͠͠·͏͓ͦΕ͕͋Δ - ʹ - ʹ "ɿༀͷ࢖༻ɼ:ɿ؊࣬ױ -ɿ؊Ԍͷطԟྺ - ɿ࣭໰ථͰऩूͨ͠؊Ԍͷطԟྺ

*OUFOUJPOUPUSFBUFGGFDU UIFFGGFDUPGB NJTDMBTTJGJFEUSFBUNFOU 21

3$5ʹ͓͚Δ5SFBUNFOUWBSJBCMF ྫʣ೥ࢮ๢཰ :ʹର͢Δ৺ଁҠ২ "ͷҼՌؔ܎ΛධՁ͢Δ3$5 ͜Ε·Ͱ͸ USFBUNFOUΛ "Λ༻͍ͯදه ׬શʹׂ෇͕९क͞Εͨ ཧ૝తͳ
3$5Ͱ͸ దͨ͠දه ͦͷͨΊɼUSFBUNFOUWBSJBCMFΛͭʹ෼͚Δඞཁ͕͋Δ 3 "ʹʢ࣏ྍ܈ʣʁ "ʹʢඇ࣏ྍ܈ʣʁ 3 ͜ͷ৔߹ɼUSFBUNFOUΛ "ͷΈͰදه͢Δͷ͸ෆద੾ खज़ड͚ͨ͘ͳ͍ ࣮ࡍͷ 3$5Ͱ͸ׂ෇͕९क͞Εͳ͍৔߹΋͋Δ ݚڀ֎Ͱखज़ड͚ͨ "ʹʢ࣏ྍ܈ɿ৺Ҡ২͢Δʣ "ʹʢඇ࣏ྍ܈ɿ৺Ҡ২͠ͳ͍ʣ

USFBUNFOUWBSJBCMFΛͭʹ෼͚Δ 3 ;ʹ ʢ৺Ҡ২Λ͏͚ΔΑ͏ʹ ׂΓ෇͚ΒΕͨਓʣ ;ʹ ʢ৺Ҡ২Λड͚ͳ͍Α͏ʹ ׂΓ෇͚ΒΕͨਓʣ "ʹ
ʢ৺Ҡ২Λड͚ͳ͔ͬͨਓʣ "ʹ ʢ৺Ҡ২Λड͚ͨਓʣ खज़ड͚ͨ͘ͳ͍ ݚڀ֎Ͱखज़ड͚ͨ ׂ෇͕९क͞Εͳ͍৔߹ɼׂ෇͚ͨ USFBUNFOU;͸ɼड͚ͨ USFBUNFOU"ͷޡ෼ྨ ׂ෇͚ͨ USFBUNFOU;ͱ ड͚ͨ USFBUNFOU"ʹ෼͚ͯදه͢Δ

;ͱ " ͷҧ͍ ;͸ ͭͷܦ࿏Ͱ :ʹӨڹΛ༩͑Δ ;ˠ "ˠ :
৺Ҡ২ʹׂΓ౰ͯΒΕͨױऀ͞Μ͸ɼ ৺Ҡ২Λड͚ΔՄೳੑ͕ߴ͍ʢ;ˠ"ʣ ৺Ҡ২͸೥ੜଘ཰ʹҼՌؔ܎͕͋Δʢ"ˠ:ʣ ;ˠ : ৺Ҡ২ʹׂΓ෇͚ΒΕͨױऀ͞Μͷߦಈม༰ɼ ҩࢣͷ഑ྀ ;ʢׂ෇͚ͨ USFBUNFOUʣ ͱ " ʢUSFBUNFOUͷଌఆ஋ͷζϨʣ͸ɼ ಉ͡ USFBUNFOU"ͷޡ෼ྨ͕ͩɼ;ͱ " ʹ͸ॏཁͳҧ͍͕͋Δ " ͸ :ʹӨڹΛ༩͑ͳ͍ " ͱ :ͷؒͷؔ࿈͸ɼڞ௨ݪҼ "Λ௨Δ ˞6ʹ͍ͭͯ͸ޙड़ " ;

;ͷޮՌͱ"ͷޮՌ͸ҟͳΔ ͔͠͠ʜ • ৺Ҡ২ͷ৔߹ɼϓϥηϘΛઃఆ͢Δ ͜ͱ͸೉͍͠ • ط஌ͷ෭࡞༻͕ى͜Δͱׂ෇ ;͕ ෼͔ͬͯ͠·͏
ׂ෇ ;ͷ৘ใΛ෬ͤΔ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ͳ͍ ׂ෇͚ͨ USFBUNFOU;ͷޮՌ͸ɼड͚࣏ͨྍͷޮՌʢ"ˠ:ʣ͚ͩͰͳ͘ɼ ׂ෇͚ΒΕͨ USFBUNFOUͷ९कঢ়گʢ;ˠ "ʣͱɼಉ࣌ਐߦ͢Δߦಈม༰ʢ;ˠ :ʣʹ ґଘ͢ΔͨΊɼड͚ͨ USFBUNFOU"ͷޮՌͱҟͳΔ ̯ˠ:ͷܦ࿏ͷΈഉআ ଟ͘ͷݚڀͰ͸ɼ ;ˠ :ͷޮՌ͚ͩͰ΋ഉআ͠ɼ;ͷӨڹΛ෦෼తʹͳͦ͘͏ͱ͢Δ ׂ෇ PVUDPNF ҩࢣͷߦಈม༰ ؍࡯ऀόΠΞε ױऀͷߦಈม༰ ϓϥηϘޮՌ USFBUNFOU ೋॏ໡ݕࢼݧʢEPVCMFCMJOEUSJBMʣ #MJOE ̯ " :

ॏཁͳͷ͸ ;͕ԿΛଌఆ͍ͯ͠Δ͔Λ ཧղ͢Δ͜ͱ USFBUNFOU;ͷޮՌ͸ɼ"Ͱ࣏ྍ͢ΔޮՌͰ͸ͳ͘ɼ "Ͱ࣏ྍ͞ΕΔ͜ͱʹׂ෇͚ΒΕͨޮՌ ·ͨ͸ "Ͱ࣏ྍ͢ΔҙਤΛ࣋ͭ͜ͱͷޮՌ ͜Ε͕ *OUFOUJPOUPUSFBUFGGFDUͱݺ͹ΕΔॴҎ
ׂ෇͚ͨ USFBUNFOU;ͷޮՌ *OUFOUJPOUPUSFBUFGGFDUʢ*55FGGFDUʣ *55FGGFDU ͸९कঢ়گ΍ଞͷཁҼʹӨڹΛड͚Δʹ΋ؔΘΒͣɼ ଟ͘ͷ 3$5Ͱ༻͍ΒΕ͍ͯΔ ͳͥɼड͚ͨ USFBUNFOU"ͷޮՌͰ͸ͳ͘ɼ ׂ෇͚ͨ USFBUNFOU;ͷޮՌʹڵຯ͕͋ΔͷͩΖ͏ʁʢ࣍ষͰઆ໌͠·͢ʣ

5FDIOJDBMQPJOUʛ&YDMVTJPOSFTUSJDUJPO আ֎੍ݶ͕੒ཱ͢ΔͳΒ͹ɼ;ˠ :ͷύε͸ଘࡏ͠ͳ͍ ;͔Β :΁ͷޮՌ͸ɼ͢΂ͯड͚ͨ USFBUNFOU"Λഔհ͢Δ :[B ΛϥϯμϜԽׂ෇ [ͷ൓ࣄ࣮Ξ΢τΧϜͱ͠ɼ࣮ࡍͷ࣏ྍ͸
BΛड͚ͨͱ͢Δ ͷ࣌ɼআ֎੍ݶ͕੒Γཱͭ ͱ͍͏ ̯ˠ:ͷܦ࿏ͷΈഉআ

1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDU 28

1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUͱ͸ʁʢ̍ʣ 1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUͱ͸ɼݚڀࢀՃऀ͕ݚڀܭըॻʢQSPUPDPMʣͰࢦఆͨ͠ͱ͓Γʹ ࣏ྍΛड͚ͨ৔߹ʹɼಘΒΕͨͰ͋Ζ͏ USFBUNFOUͷ $BVTBMFGGFDU ׬ᘳͳ९कʢ;ʹ"ʣͷ৔߹ɼ"ͱ "ʹ̌ ͷ &YDIBOHFBCJMJUZ͕੒Γཱͭ
1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDU ʹ ;ͷ "5& ʹ "ͷ "5& 3 ;ʹ ʢ৺Ҡ২Λ͏͚ΔΑ͏ʹ ׂΓ෇͚ΒΕͨਓʣ ;ʹ ʢ৺Ҡ২Λड͚ͳ͍Α͏ʹ ׂΓ෇͚ΒΕͨਓʣ "ʹ ʢ৺Ҡ২Λड͚ͳ͔ͬͨਓʣ "ʹ ʢ৺Ҡ২Λड͚ͨਓʣ ׬ᘳͳ९क ࢦఆͨ͠௨Γʹ ࣏ྍΛड͚ͨ

1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUͱ͸ʁʢ̎ʣ ͔͠͠ɼ࣮ࡍͷ3$5͸׬ᘳͳ९कͰ͸ͳ͍ 3 ;ʹ ʢ৺Ҡ২Λ͏͚ΔΑ͏ʹ ׂΓ෇͚ΒΕͨਓʣ ;ʹ ʢ৺Ҡ২Λड͚ͳ͍Α͏ʹ ׂΓ෇͚ΒΕͨਓʣ
"ʹ ʢ৺Ҡ২Λड͚ͳ͔ͬͨਓʣ "ʹ ʢ৺Ҡ২Λड͚ͨਓʣ ݚڀ֎Ͱखज़ड͚ͨ ৺Ҡ২Λड͚ͳ͍Α͏ʹׂ෇͚ΒΕͨ܈ͷ͏ͪɼॏ঱౓ͷߴ͍ױऀ͞Μ͕ݚڀ֎Ͱ ৺Ҡ২Λड͚Δ܏޲͕͋Δͱ͢Δͱɼ"̍ͷ܈Ͱॏ঱ऀͷׂ߹͕ߴ͘ͳΔ ॏ঱౓ߴ͍ ׬ᘳͳ९कͰͳ͍৔߹ʢ;㱠"ʣɼ "ͱ "ʹ̌ &YDIBOHFBCJMJUZ͕੒Γཱͨͳ͍ ॏ঱౓ߴ͍

׬ᘳͳ९कͰͳ͍3$5Ͱ 1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUΛܭࢉ͢ΔͨΊ͸ʁ 6ɿॏ঱౓ʢ९कঢ়گΛ༧ଌ͢ΔҼࢠʣ "ˠ 6ˠ :ͷόοΫυΞύε͕։͘ ʢަབྷͷൃੜʣ %"(Ͱද͢ͱʜ 3$5Λ؍࡯ݚڀͱͯ͠ղੳ͢Δඞཁ͕͋Δʂ
Ҽࢠ 6͕ਖ਼͘͠ଌఆ͞Ε͍ͯͳ͍৔߹ʹ͸ɼ USFBUNFOU"ͷޮՌʢ1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUʣΛਖ਼͘͠ਪఆ͢Δ͜ͱ͸Ͱ͖ͳ͍ ަབྷҼࢠͷௐ੔͕ඞཁ 3 ;ʹ ʢ৺Ҡ২Λ͏͚ΔΑ͏ʹ ׂΓ෇͚ΒΕͨਓʣ ;ʹ ʢ৺Ҡ২Λड͚ͳ͍Α͏ʹ ׂΓ෇͚ΒΕͨਓʣ "ʹ ʢ৺Ҡ২Λड͚ͳ͔ͬͨਓʣ "ʹ ʢ৺Ҡ২Λड͚ͨਓʣ ݚڀ֎Ͱखज़ड͚ͨ ॏ঱౓ߴ͍

ରরతʹɼ;͸ϥϯμϜʹׂΓ෇͚ΒΕ͍ͯΔͨΊɼ ׂ෇͚ΒΕͨ USFBUNFOU;ͷޮՌʢ*55FGGFDUʣʹ͸ɼ ަབྷ͸ൃੜ͠ͳ͍ɽׂ෇͚ΒΕͨ USFBUNFOUͷ९कঢ়گʹؔΘΒͣɼ ; ʹɼ;̌ͷ &YDIBOHFBCJMJUZ͸੒Γཱͭ *55FGGFDU͕
3$5Ͱ༻͍ΒΕΔཧ༝ 1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDU͸ɼަབྷҼࢠ͕ଌఆ͞Εͳ͔ͬͨ৔߹ɼܭࢉͰ͖ͳ͍ *55FGGFDU͸ɼަབྷҼࢠ͕ଌఆ͞Εͳͯ͘΋ܭࢉͰ͖Δ *55FGGFDU ͸ɼຊ౰ʹٻΊ͍ͨ USFBUNFOU"Ͱ࣏ྍͨ͠ޮՌʢ1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUʣΛ ΈΕ͍ͯͳ͍͔΋͠Εͳ͍͕ɼ1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUΑΓ΋ܭࢉ͠΍͍͢ ݚڀऀ͸ɼܭࢉ͠΍͍͢ *55FGGFDUΛ༻͍Δ͜ͱΛਖ਼౰Խ͢ΔͨΊʹཧ༝Λߟ͑ͨ ͔͠͠ɼ͜ͷਖ਼౰Խʹ͸஫ҙ͢Δඞཁ͕͋Δ

*55FGGFDU͕ਖ਼౰Խ͞ΕΔཧ༝ *55FGGFDU͸ɼ/VMMΛอͭ • USFBUNFOU"͕ :ʹରͯ͠ /VMMFGGFDUΛ࣋ͭ৔߹ɼ USFBUNFOU;΋ :ʹରͯ͠ /VMMFGGFDUΛ࣋ͭ
• ਖ਼ࣜʹ͸ɼ4IBSQOVMMIZQPUIFTJTͱ &YDMVTJPOSFTUSJDUJPOͷ΋ͱͰ ࣍ͷ͕ࣜ੒Γཱͭ *55FGGFDU͸ɼ1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUΑΓ΋ /VMMʹ͍ۙ஋ΛͱΔ • ௚ײతʹ͸ɼ׬ᘳͳ९कͰͳ͍৔߹ɼͦͷޮՌΛތு͢ΔͷͰ͸ͳ͘ݮগͤ͞Δ • *55SJTLSBUJP͸ɼͱ 1FSQSPUPDPMSJTLSBUJPͱͷؒͷ஋Λ࣋ͭ͜ͱʹͳΔ • *55FGGFDU͸ɼ อकతͳޮՌਪఆ஋ʢ1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUͷԼݶʣͱͯ͠ղऍͰ͖Δ *55SJTLSBUJP 1FSQSPUPDPMSJTLSBUJP ͔͠͠ɼ͜ͷߟ͑ํʹ͸ͭͷ໰୊఺͕͋Δ

*55FGGFDUͷਖ਼౰Խ ͭͷ໰୊఺ʢ̍ʣ ޮՌͷ୯ௐੑΛલఏͱ͍ͯ͠Δʢ࣏ྍޮՌ͸͢΂ͯͷݸਓʹରͯ͠ಉ͡ํ޲ʹ͋Δʣ ྫʣ࣏ྍʹׂ෇͚ΒΕͨਓͷ͏ͪͷਓ͕९क͠ͳ͔ͬͨ৔߹ɼ९कͨ͠ਓͱ ९क͠ͳ͔ͬͨਓͰ͸ USFBUNFOUFGGFDUͷํ޲͕ٯͰ͋ͬͨɽ ʢޮՌ͕୯ௐͰͳ͍ʣ ͜ͷ࣌ɼ*55FGGFDUΑΓ΋ 1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUͷํ͕
/VMMʹ͍͔ۙ΋͠Εͳ͍ ʢ൓อकతʣ

ޮՌ͸୯ௐͰ͋Δͱͯ͠ɼ ϓϥηϘରরࢼݧͰ͸อकతͰ͋Δ͕ɼ࣮ༀ WT࣮ༀͷࢼݧͰ͸ͦ͏ͱ͸ݶΒͳ͍ ྫʣߴՁͳༀࡎʢ;ʣWTΠϒϓϩϑΣϯʢ;ʣ ೥ޙͷॏ౓ͷ᙭௧ϦεΫͷݮগΛධՁɽ྆ༀࡎ͸౳͘͠༗ޮɽ ΠϒϓϩϑΣϯ܈͸ͨ·ͨ·঱ঢ়͕ܰ౓Ͱɼ ؇࿨͞Ε΍͔ͬͨͨ͢Ίɼ෰ༀͷ९क͕ѱ͍ɽ ΠϒϓϩϑΣϯʹର͢ΔߴՁͳༀࡎͷ *55FGGFDU͸ɼ
᙭௧ϦεΫΛݮগͤ͞ΔޮՌ͕௿͍ͱ͍͏ޡͬͨ݁ՌΛಋ͍ͨ ; ; " " OPUBEIFSFODFਓ ਓ ਓ ਓ ਓ : : ਓ ਓ 1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDU *55FGGFDU /VMM͡Όͳ͍ *55FGGFDUͷਖ਼౰Խ ͭͷ໰୊఺ʢʣ

*55FGGFDU͕อकతͰ͋ͬͨͱͯ͠ɼ USFBUNFOUͷ҆શੑΛධՁ͢ΔࢼݧͰ͸ɼ*55FGGFDU͸ةݥͳޮՌଌఆͰ͋Δ USFBUNFOU"͕ݚڀࢀՃऀͷ͔ͳΓͷׂ߹Ͱ BEWFSTFPVUDPNFΛى͍ͯͨ͜͠ͱͯ͠΋ɼ *55FGGFDU͸ /VMMʹ͍ۙͷͰɼl͜ͷ USFBUNFOU͸҆શz ͱ ؁Ίʹ݁࿦͚ͮΔ͜ͱ͕
Ͱ͖Δ ྫʣ;ʹ̍ͷױऀ͕༗֐ࣄ৅Λى͜͢લʹ࣏ྍΛड͚͍ͯͳ͔ͬͨ͋Δ͍͸ ड͚͍࣏ͯͨྍΛதࢭͨ͠ *55FGGFDUͷਖ਼౰Խ ͭͷ໰୊఺ʢʣ

·ͱΊʛ3$5ͷղੳʹ͓͚Δ஫ҙ఺ • *55FGGFDUΛใࠂ͢Δ͜ͱͷਖ਼౰Խ͸ɼ׬ᘳͳ९कͰͳ͍3$5΍҆શੑΛධՁ͢Δ ࢼݧͰ͸೉͍͠ • 1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUΛܭࢉ͢ΔͨΊʹ͸ɼަབྷͷௐ੔͕ඞཁ ʢଌఆ͞ΕͨڞมྔΛ৚݅෇͚Δ͜ͱʹΑΔަ׵ՄೳੑͷԾఆͷ΋ͱɼ͋Δ͍͸୅ସ ͷԾఆͷ΋ͱͰͷૢ࡞ม਺๏ʹΑΔ ৄࡉ͸$IBQUFSʣ
• ࣌ؒมಈม਺ΛؚΊ͍ͯͳ͍ͷͰɼ͜͜Ͱͷ 1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUͷٞ࿦͸ബ͍ ਪఆํ๏ͷৄࡉ͸ɼ1BSU***ͰऔΓѻ͏ • જࡏతͳະଌఆަབྷʹΑΔόΠΞεʢ1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUʣͱ USFBUNFOUͷޡ෼ྨ ʹΑΔόΠΞεʢ*55FGGFDUʣͱͷؒʹτϨʔυΦϑ͕͋Δ • *55FGGFDU Λใࠂ͢Δ͜ͱ͸ɼަབྷΑΓଌఆόΠΞεΛ༏ઌ͢Δ͜ͱʹͳΔ͕ɼ ͦΕͧΕͷద༻ੑʢଥ౰ੑʣΛ;·͑ਖ਼౰Խ͢Δඞཁ͕͋Δ

'JOF1PJOUc1FSQSPUPDPMBOBMZTFT 3$5Ͱ 1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUΛਪఆ͠Α͏ͱ͢Δ৔߹ɼҰൠతʹ͸ͭͷํ๏͕͋Δ • "TUSFBUFEBOBMZTJTʢ"ɼ"ʹ͓͚Δ :Λൺֱɽ;͸ແࢹʣ • 1FS1SPUPDPMBOBMZTJTʢ";ͷूஂͰͷ ;̍ɼ;ʹ͓͚Δ
:ͷൺֱʣ ଌఆ͞Ε͍ͯͳ͍Ҽࢠ6ʹΑͬͯ ަབྷ͕ੜͯ͡͠·͏ ଌఆ͞ΕͨަབྷҼࢠ-Λ৚͚݅ͮ͢Δ͜ͱͰ όοΫυΞύεΛःஅͰ͖ɼ1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUΛ ਪఆͰ͖Δ "TUSFBUFEBOBMZTJT

'JOF1PJOUc1FSQSPUPDPMBOBMZTFT 1FSQSPUPDPMͷूஂ΁ͷબ୒ͷई౓͕௥Ճ͞ΕΔ ";ɿ4 "㱠 ;ɿ4 1FSQSPUPDPMBOBMZTJT ";ͷࢀՃऀΛݚڀूஂͱͨ͠ *55ղੳ Ұൠతʹ͸ɼ1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUͷภͬͨਪఆ஋͕ಘΒΕΔ
બ୒όΠΞε͸ɼ1FSQSPUPDPMBOBMZTJT͕ ద੾ʹཁҼ -Λଌఆ͠ɼௐ੔͠ͳ͚Ε͹ൃੜ͢Δ "TUSFBUFEBOBMZTJTͱ 1FSQSPUPDPMBOBMZTJT͸ 3$5ʹ͓͚Δ؍࡯ݚڀతͳղੳͰ ͋Γɼଞͷ؍࡯ݚڀͷղੳͱಉ༷ʹ 1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUͷ༗ޮͳਪఆ஋ΛಘΔͨΊ ʹ͸ɼަབྷҼࢠͱબ୒όΠΞεΛద੾ʹௐ੔͢Δඞཁ͕͋Δ

؍ଌ஋͔Βͷܭࢉํ๏ *OUFOUJPOUPUSFBUBOBMZTJT 1FSQSPUPDPMBOBMZTJT "TUSFBUFEBOBMZTJT ௐ੔ͷඞཁͳ͠ બ୒όΠΞεͷ৚݅෇͚ɼ ަབྷͷௐ੔͕ඞཁ ަབྷͷௐ੔͕ඞཁ ݟ͍ͨFGGFDU *OUFOUJPOUPUSFBUFGGFDU
1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDU 3$5σʔλʹର͢Δ ղੳΞϓϩʔν " " " " ᶃ ᶄ ᶅ ᶆ ; ; 'JOF1PJOUc ;ɼ; ;"ɼ;" "ɼ" ᶅᶆ ᶃᶄ ᶆ ᶃ ᶄᶆ ᶃᶅ

'JOF1PJOUʛݟ͔͚ͤͷ*55ղੳ $͸ɼPVUDPNF:ͷଌఆ·Ͱଧͪ੾Γ͕ͳ͔ͬͨ͜ͱΛࣔ͢ $IBQUFSͰࣔͨ͠௨Γɼଧͪ੾Γ͸બ୒όΠΞεΛ༠ൃ͢ΔՄೳੑ͕͋Δ *55FGGFDU͸ɼGPMMPXVQ΍ଞͷܗࣜͷଧͪ੾Γʢ"&ͷͨΊͷதࢭʁʣ͕ͳ͍৔߹ͷΈ *55ղੳ͔Β௚઀ਪఆ͢Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δ GPMMPXVQ͕׬͍ྃͯ͠ͳ͍ਓ͸ɼPVUDPNF͕ෆ໌Ͱ͋ΔͨΊɼղੳ͸ GPMMPXVQ͕ ׬͍ྃͯ͠Δਓʹݶఆ͢Δඞཁ͕͋Δ ͕ͨͬͯ͠ɼՄೳͳͷ͸ݟ͔͚ͤͷ
*55ղੳͷΈ ݟ͔͚ͤͷ *55FGGFDUͷਪఆ஋͸ɼ*55FGGFDUͷͲͪΒͷํ޲ʹ΋ภΔՄೳੑ͕͋Δ GPMMPXVQ΍ଞͷܗࣜͷଧͪ੾Γ͕͋Δ৔߹ɼ3$5 ͷղੳ͸ɼ*55FGGFDUΛ༻͍Δ ৔߹Ͱ͋ͬͯ΋બ୒όΠΞεΛద੾ʹௐ੔͢Δ͜ͱ͕ඞཁͱͳΔ

'JOF1PJOUʛσʔλܽଌͷ༧๷ͱॲஔ σʔλͷܽଌ͸ɼਪ࿦Λେ͖͘ଛͳ͏ݪҼͱͳΓ͏Δͷʹ஫໨͞Ε͍ͯͳ͍͜ͱΛड͚ͯɼ '%" ͕ /3$ʹ࡞੒Λཁ੥ͨܽ͠ଌσʔλͷऔѻ͍ʹؔ͢Δใࠂॻͷཁ໿ '%"ɿ'PPEBOE%SVH"ENJOJTUSBUJPOʢΞϝϦΧ৯඼ҩༀ඼ہʣ /3$ɿ/BUJPOBM3FTFBSDI$PVODJMʢશถݚڀධٞձʣ • ղੳஈ֊ͰܽଌσʔλΛ؆୯ʹमਖ਼͢Δ͜ͱ͸Ͱ͖ͳ͍
• ϩόετੑΛධՁ͢ΔͨΊͷײ౓෼ੳͱ૊Έ߹Θ͞ΕͨՊֶతʹଥ౰ͳղੳ͕ඞཁ • ͲͷΑ͏ͳΞϓϩʔνͰ΋ؤ݈ੑΛे෼ʹݕূ͢Δ͜ͱ͸ෆՄೳ • ඇݱ࣮తͳԾఆʹཔΔඞཁੑ͸ɼͦ΋ͦ΋ܽଌσʔλ͕ൃੜ͢Δ͜ͱΛ๷͙͜ͱͷ ॏཁੑΛࣔ͢ • ॏཁͳͷ͸ɼݚڀܭըɾઃܭஈ֊ͰɼܽଌΛ੍ݶ͢ΔΑ͏ʹܭը͠ɼ࣮ࢪ͢Δ͜ͱ -JUUMF 3+ %"HPTUJOP 3 $PIFO .- %JDLFSTJO , &NFSTPO 44 'BSSBS +5 /FBUPO +% 5IFQSFWFOUJPOBOEUSFBUNFOUPGNJTTJOHEBUBJO DMJOJDBMUSJBMT /FX&OHMBOE+PVSOBMPG.FEJDJOF

'JOF1PJOUʛ&GGFDUJWFOFTTͱ &GGJDBDZ &GGFDUJWFOFTTʹؔ͢Δٞ࿦ &GGFDUJWFOFTT͕࣏ྍޮՌͷ࠷΋ݱ࣮తͳई౓Ͱ͋Δ͜ͱ͕ٞ࿦͞Ε͍ͯΔ • ׂ෇ ;ͷޮՌ΋ؚΉ͜ͱͰɼਓʑׂ͕෇Λ९क͠ͳ͍ͱ͍͏ࣄ࣮͕૊Έࠐ·Ε͍ͯΔ • &GGJDBDZ͸࣮ࡍͷঢ়ଶͰͷ࣏ྍޮՌΛ൓өͨ͠΋ͷͰ͸ͳ͍
*55FGGFDU͕ ใࠂ͞ΕΔ͜ͱͷਖ਼౰Խ͸ɼܭࢉ͕༰қͰ͋Δ͜ͱ͚ͩͰ͸ͳ͘ɼ &GGFDUJWFOFTT͕ͦ͜ຊ౰ʹڵຯͷ͋ΔޮՌई౓Ͱ͋Δͱ͍͏ཧ༝͔Β΋ओு͞ΕΔ ͔͠͠ɼ্هͷٞ࿦ʹ͸໰୊఺͕͋Δ &GGFDUJWFOFTT &GGJDBDZ ݚڀதͷհೖ͕࠷దʹ࣮ࢪ͞Εͳ͍ઃఆͰͷ USFBUNFOU;ΛׂΓ౰ͯΔ͜ͱͷޮՌ ཧ૝తͳ3$5ʹ͓͚ΔUSFBUNFOU"ͷޮՌ *55FGGFDU 1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDU

'JOF1PJOUʛ&GGFDUJWFOFTTͱ &GGJDBDZ &GGFDUJWFOFTTʹؔ͢Δٞ࿦ͷ໰୊఺ ɽ3$5Ͱͷ९कঢ়گ͕࣮ࡍͷੜ׆ʹ͓͚Δ९कঢ়گͱಉ͡ͱ͸ݶΒͳ͍ ྫʣݚڀʹࢀՃ͢ΔͱϞχλʔ͞ΕΔ͜ͱʹΑΓ९कঢ়گ͕ྑ͘ͳΔ͔΋͠Εͳ͍ ྫʣༀࡎʹޮՌ͕͋ΔͱΘ͔Ε͹ɼ९कঢ়گ͕ྑ͘ͳΔ͔΋͠Εͳ͍ ɽ࣮ੜ׆Ͱ͸ɼױऀ͞Μ΋ҩࢣ΋࣏ྍΛड͚ͨ͜ͱΛ஌͍ͬͯΔͨΊɼೋॏ໡ݕࢼݧ͸ ߇͑Δ΂͖ʢਅͷ &GGFDUJWFOFTT͸ױऀ͞Μ΍ҩࢣͷߦಈม༰ʢ;ˠ:ʣ΋ؚΉʣ
ɽॲํΛ९क͢Δױऀ͞Μ͸ɼ*55FGGFDUΑΓ΋ 1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUʹؔ৺͕͋Δ ௥Ճ৘ใͱͯ͠ʜ 1SBHNBUJDUSJBMͷΨΠυϥΠϯͰ͸ɼ lױऀ͞Μ͕ڵຯ͕͋Δͷ͸ɼʮ೔ৗੜ׆Ͱ࣏ྍΛ९कͨ͠ͱ͖ͷ࣏ྍͷޮՌʯͰ͋Γɼ &GGFDUJWFOFTTͱ &GGJDBDZͷ༻ޠͷ࢖͍෼͚͸ॏཁͰ͸ͳ͍z ʢॏཁͳͷ͸ɼԿΛਪఆ͍͔ͨ͠Λ໌֬ʹ͢Δ͜ͱʣ 8BMENBOO .3 )BHNBZFS : &TUJNBUJOHDBVTBMTUSFOHUI5IFSPMFPGTUSVDUVSBMLOPXMFEHFBOEQSPDFTTJOHFGGPSU$PHOJUJPO

'JOF1PJOUʛ#FZPOEUIF*55 )FSOÂO ." )FSOÂOEF[%ÍB[ 4 #FZPOEUIFJOUFOUJPOUPUSFBUJODPNQBSBUJWFFGGFDUJWFOFTTSFTFBSDI$MJOJDBMUSJBMT
*55ղੳͷ໰୊఺ΛϨϏϡʔ͠ɼ"TUSFBUFEղੳɼ1FSQSPUPDPMղੳΛؚΊΔ͜ͱͰ όΠΞεΛݮΒ͢ํ๏ʹ͍ͭͯݕ౼͢Δ &GGFDUJWFOFTTൺֱݚڀʹয఺Λ౰͍ͯͯΔ ʢͱʹ͍ͭͯɼྫΛ༻͍ͯৄ͘͠આ໌͞Ε͍ͯΔʣ • ९क͕େ෯ʹଛͳΘΕΔ͍ͯͨΓ MPTTUPGPMMPXVQͷ͋Δ3$5Ͱ͸ɼ*55ղੳɼ "TUSFBUFEղੳɼ1FSQSPUPDPMղੳΛ૊Έ߹ΘͤͨղੳΞϓϩʔνΛਪ঑͢Δ • *55ղੳΛɼ"TUSFBUFEղੳɼ1FSQSPUPDPMղੳͰิ଍͢Δ͜ͱ͸ҙࢥܾఆͷࢀߟ ʹͳΔ͕ɼόΠΞε͕ద੾ʹௐ੔͞Ε͍ͯΔͱ͖ͷΈ༗ޮ • *55ղੳ͸ɼޮՌͷେ͖͞ͷධՁΛղੳऀͰ͸ͳ͘ྟচҩʹෛ୲ͤ͞Δ • ଧͪ੾Γɼ୤མɼPVUDPNFͷະଌఆ͕͋Δ৔߹΋໰୊ɽٙࣅ *55ʹஔ͖׵͑ΒΕΔ ͜ͱ͕ଟ͍ • GPMMPXVQظ͕ؒ௕͍ݚڀ͸ಛʹ९क͕ѱ͘ͳΓɼલ޲͖؍࡯ݚڀʹࣅͯ͘Δ

1SBHNBUJDUSJBM )FSOÂO ." 3PCJOT +. 1FSQSPUPDPMBOBMZTFTPGQSBHNBUJDUSJBMT/&OHM +.FE
1SBHNBUJDUSJBMʹ͓͚Δ 1FSQSPUPDPMBOBMZTFTʹ͍ͭͯ ݶΓ͋ΔࢿݯΛ༗ޮʹ׆༻͠ɼ࣮ྟচͰͷ༗༻ͳҙࢥܾఆͷࢦඪͱ͢ΔͨΊʹɼ ඞཁͳղੳํ๏ͱखॱΛݕ౼ɼઆ໌ɼఏҊ͍ͯ͠Δ • *55FGGFDUͷਪఆ஋Λ QFSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUͰิ׬͢Δ͜ͱͰͰ͖ΔݶΓଟ͘ͷ༗༻ ͳਪఆ஋Λநग़͍ͨ͠ • ྟচతʹ༗༻ͳ QFSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUΛਪఆ͢ΔͨΊʹ͸ɼ*7ɿJOTUSVNFOUBM WBSJBCMFTʢҰ࣌఺հೖݚڀʣ΍ HNFUIPEʢ࣋ଓతͳ९कΛඞཁͱ͢Δ࣏ྍΛൺֱ͢ ΔݚڀʣͳͲͷ౷ܭख๏͕ඞཁ • 1FSQSPUPDPMBOBMZTJTͷଥ౰ੑ͸ɼద੾ͳํ๏ͷબ୒͚ͩͰͳ͘ɼ໌֬ͳఆٛɼ ౷ܭղੳܭըͷࣄલઃఆɼUSFBUNFOUͷ९कͱ QSPHOPTUJDGBDUPSʹؔ͢Δ࣭ͷߴ͍ σʔλͷऩूʹґଘ͢Δ • ݚڀܭըஈ֊ͰݚڀσβΠϯɼ࣮ࢪํ๏ɼղੳํ๏Λे෼ʹݕ౼͠ɼݚڀܭըॻʹ ໌ه͢Δ͜ͱ͕ॏཁ

ຊষͷཁ఺ .&"463&.&/5#*"4 1ʙ n ଌఆޡࠩ͸ͲΜͳݚڀσβΠϯͰ΋ൃੜ͢Δ n ଌఆόΠΞε͕͋Δͱɼ*EFOUJGJBCMFͷ৚݅͸ҼՌؔ܎ͷਪఆʹෆे෼ n ଌఆޡࠩͷߏ଄ʹ͸ɼͭͷλΠϓ͕͋Δʢิਖ਼ํ๏͸ͦΕͧΕҟͳΔʣ
n ަབྷҼࢠͷଌఆޡࠩʹΑͬͯ΋όΠΞε͕ൃੜ͢Δ n *55FGGFDU͸ɼׂΓ෇͚ΒΕͨ USFBUNFOU;ͷޮՌΛݟ͍ͯΔ ʢUSFBUNFOU;ͱ USFBUNFOU"ͷޮՌ͸ҧ͏ʣ n 1FSQSPUPDPMFGGFDUΛܭࢉ͢Δʹ͸ɼ3$5Λ؍࡯ݚڀͱͯ͠ ղੳ͢Δඞཁ͕͋Δ n ݚڀͷ४උஈ֊ͰɼଌఆόΠΞε͕ൃੜ͢Δ͜ͱΛߟྀͨ͠ݚڀܭըΛ ཱͯΔ͜ͱ͕ॏཁ

ࢀߟจݙ 7BOEFS8FFMF 5+ )FSOÂO ." 3FTVMUTPOEJGGFSFOUJBMBOEEFQFOEFOU NFBTVSFNFOUFSSPSPGUIFFYQPTVSFBOEUIFPVUDPNFVTJOHTJHOFEEJSFDUFEBDZDMJDHSBQIT "NFSJDBOKPVSOBMPGFQJEFNJPMPHZ
%PTFNFDJ . 8BDIPMEFS 4 -VCJO +) %PFTOPOEJGGFSFOUJBMNJTDMBTTJGJDBUJPOPG FYQPTVSFBMXBZTCJBTBUSVFFGGFDUUPXBSEUIFOVMMWBMVF "NFSJDBOKPVSOBMPGFQJEFNJPMPHZ -JUUMF 3+ %"HPTUJOP 3 $PIFO .- %JDLFSTJO , &NFSTPO 44 'BSSBS +5 /FBUPO +% 5IFQSFWFOUJPOBOEUSFBUNFOUPGNJTTJOHEBUBJODMJOJDBMUSJBMT/FX &OHMBOE+PVSOBMPG.FEJDJOF )FSOÂO ." )FSOÂOEF[%ÍB[ 4 #FZPOEUIFJOUFOUJPOUPUSFBUJODPNQBSBUJWF FGGFDUJWFOFTTSFTFBSDI$MJOJDBMUSJBMT )FSOÂO ." 3PCJOT +. 1FSQSPUPDPMBOBMZTFTPGQSBHNBUJDUSJBMT/&OHM + .FE 8BMENBOO .3 )BHNBZFS : &TUJNBUJOHDBVTBMTUSFOHUI5IFSPMFPGTUSVDUVSBM LOPXMFEHFBOEQSPDFTTJOHFGGPSU$PHOJUJPO

Measurement bias (Causal inference: What if, Chapter 9)

Measurement bias (Causal inference: What if, Chapter 9)

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