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Run in periodと決定木と生存時間解析(MERC勉強会)

38e2af7f8bdad4f2087ab3d42b627e33?s=47 Shuntaro Sato
December 18, 2020

Run in periodと決定木と生存時間解析(MERC勉強会)

38e2af7f8bdad4f2087ab3d42b627e33?s=128

Shuntaro Sato

December 18, 2020
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  1. "OBOE44 &JLFMCPPN+8 %ZBM- #PTDI+ /FVNBOO$ 8JEJNTLZ1 FUBM 3JWBSPYBCBO1MVT"TQJSJO7FSTVT"TQJSJO JO3FMBUJPOUP7BTDVMBS3JTL 


    JOUIF$0.1"445SJBM 
 +"N$PMM$BSEJPM+VM  r .&3$ʢʣ ࠤ౻ढ़ଠ࿕ʢ4BUP4IVOUBSP!ੜ෺౷ܭֶʣ
  2. 0WFSWJFX 2 4VCTUVEZ 3JWBSPYBCBO1MVT"TQJSJO7FSTVT "TQJSJOJO3FMBUJPOUP7BTDVMBS3JTL 
 JOUIF$0.1"445SJBM .FUIPET 3FTVMUT ܾఆ໦

    ੜଘ࣌ؒղੳ $0.1"445SJBM 3JWBSPYBCBOXJUIPSXJUIPVU"TQJSJO JO4UBCMF$BSEJPWBTDVMBS%JTFBTF &JLFMCPPN+8 $POOPMMZ4+ #PTDI+ %BHFOBJT(3 )BSU 3( 4IFTUBLPWTLB0 FUBM3JWBSPYBCBOXJUIPSXJUIPVU "TQJSJOJO4UBCMF$BSEJPWBTDVMBS%JTFBTF/&OHM+.FE 0DU  r
  3. $0.1"445SJBM 3$5 $BSEJPWBTDVMBS0VUDPNFTGPS1FPQMF6TJOH"OUJDPBHVMBUJPO4USBUFHJFT 3 8FFWBMVBUFEXIFUIFSSJWBSPYBCBOBMPOFPSJODPNCJOBUJPOXJUIBTQJSJO XPVMECFNPSFF f f FDUJWFUIBOBTQJSJOBMPOFGPSTFDPOEBSZ DBSEJPWBTDVMBSQSFWFOUJPO

    ໨త 1 ҆ఆͨ͠ΞςϩʔϜੑ݂؅࣬ױطԟױऀ * SJWBSPYBCBOͱBTQJSJOซ༻ɾSJWBSPYBCBO୯ಠ౤༩ $ BTQJSJO౤༩ 0 ෳ߹ΤϯυϙΠϯτʢ$7ࢮɼ೴ଔதɼ.*ʣ
  4. ษڧʹͳΔσβΠϯͷϙΠϯτ 4 w தؒղੳ͕͋Δ w ෳ਺ͷΤϯυϙΠϯτ͕͋Δ w ൺֱ͢Δ܈͕ͭ .VMUJQMJDJUZ UFTUJOH

    4VQQMFNFOUBSZ"QQFOEJYʹ 
 5ZQF*FSSPSͷ 
 ৄ੍͍͠ޚํ๏͕ॻ͍ͯ͋Δ
  5. $0/4035EJBHSBNPG$0.1"445SJBM 5

  6. 3VOJO  6 ద֨ج४Λ 
 ຬͨ͢ *$ ϥϯμϜ 
 ׂ෇

    ؍࡯ظؒ (PPEBEIFSFODF #BEBEIFSFODFTJEFF f f FDU #JBT
  7. 3VOJO  7 ϥϯμϜ 
 ׂ෇ ؍࡯ظؒ #BEBEIFSFODFTJEFF f f

    FDU #JBTͷܰݮ (PPEBEIFSFODF 3VOJOQFSJPE (PPEBEIFSFODF ୤མ ղੳର৅ूஂ
  8. 4VCTUVEZ 8 5IFQVSQPTFPGUIJTTUVEZXBTUPJEFOUJGZTVCTFUTPGQBUJFOUTBUIJHIFS SJTLPGSFDVSSFOUWBTDVMBSFWFOUT XIJDINBZIFMQGPDVTUIFVTFPG SJWBSPYBCBOBOEBTQJSJOUIFSBQZ ໨త 1 BTQJSJOΛ౤༩͍ͯ͠Δױऀˡͳͥʁ 1

    3&"$)SJTLTDPSFʹؚ·ΕΔม਺ 0 ෳ߹ΤϯυϙΠϯτ 
 ʢ$7ࢮɼ೴ଔதɼ.*ɼ 
 ɹॏཁͳ݂؅Ξ΢τΧϜˡͳͥʁʣ ٸੑ࢛ࢶڏ݂ɾ݂؅੾அ IUUQTPQFOCPYTUBUOFUFOUSZDRSPBENBQ
  9. 1PQVMBUJPOPGTVCTUVEZ 9

  10. 3&"$)SJTLTDPSF 10 3FEVDUJPOPG"UIFSPUISPNCPTJTGPS$POUJOVFE)FBMUI w TFY w BHF w TNPLJOH w

    EJBCFUFT w MPXCPEZNBTTJOEFY w OVNCFSPGWBTDVMBSCFETB f f FDUFE w $7FWFOUJOUIFQBTUZFBS w IFBSUGBJMVSF )'  w BUSJBM f i CSJMMBUJPO w TUBJOUIFSBQZ w BTQJSJOUIFSBQZ w F('3 w SFHJPOT w TFY w BHF w TNPLJOH w EJBCFUFT w MPXCPEZNBTTJOEFY w OVNCFSPGWBTDVMBSCFETB f f FDUFE w $7FWFOUJOUIFQBTUZFBS w IFBSUGBJMVSF )'  w BUSJBM f i CSJMMBUJPO w MJQJEMPXFSJOHUIFSBQZ w BOZBOUJQMBUFMFUUIFSBQZVTF w F('3 w SFHJPOT 0SJHJOBMTDPSF .PEJ f i FETDPSF
  11. 3FTVMUT  11 ܾఆ໦ ,BQMBO.FJFS 
 FTUJNBUPS

  12. 3FTVMUT  12

  13. 3FTVMUT  13 ,BQMBO.FJFS 
 FTUJNBUPS ,BQMBO.FJFS 
 FTUJNBUPS

  14. ܾఆ໦ %FDJTJPOUSFF

  15. ܾఆ໦ͷಛ௃ 15 w ໨తม਺Λ࣭తσʔλͱ͢Δ෼ྨ໰୊ w ϩδεςΟοΫճؼϞσϧͱҟͳΓɼ 
 ʮ୯७ͳنଇʯʹجͮ͘ํ๏Ͱ͋ΔͨΊɼ݁Ռͷ௚ײతͳཧղ΍ղऍ͕༰қ w ໨తม਺ͷ༧ଌΑΓ΋ɼϦεΫͷ૚ผԽʹয఺Λ౰ͯΔɽ

    w ϦεΫͷҟͳΔ෦෼ूஂΛൃݟ͢Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δ w ෼ྨ໦ɼճؼ໦ͱ΋ݺ͹ΕΔ ܾఆ໦ͷઆ໌͸ɼ 
 ʰྛݡҰɼԼฏӳणʢʣɼ3ͰֶͿ౷ܭతσʔλղੳɼߨஊࣾɽʱ 
 Λࢀߟʹͨ͠
  16. ࣝผม਺ʢ*OEJDBUPSʣ 16 ม਺Yͷ஋͸࣮਺VΑΓখ͍͞ نଇ I{x < u}   5SVF

    'BMTF ࣝผม਺ʢ*OEJDBUPSʣ ܾఆ໦ نଇΛෳ਺૊Έ߹Θͤͯ 
 ඪຊΛϦεΫͷҟͳΔूஂʹ෼ׂ͢Δ
  17. ҟ࣭ੑ 17   ϦεΫࠩ ѱੑͷ 
 ϦεΫ  

       ϦεΫࠩ ѱੑͷ 
 ϦεΫ    Vͷํ͕ϦεΫΛ 
 ͸͖ͬΓ෼͚͍ͯΔ Vͷํ͕ɼ 
 ΑΓҟ࣭Ͱ͋Δ
  18. ܾఆ໦ͷ਺ཧ 18 1%'ϝϞΛࢀর

  19. 3FTVMUT  19 ܾఆ໦ ,BQMBO.FJFS 
 FTUJNBUPS

  20. ੜଘ࣌ؒղੳΛݟਾ͑ͨ 
 Πϕϯτͷൃੜͷࢦඪ

  21. Πϕϯτͷൃੜͷࢦඪ 21 ൃੜׂ߹ ൃੜ཰ ੜଘׂ߹ ੜଘ֬཰ ྦྷੵൃੜ཰ *ODJEFODFSBUF *ODJEFODFQSPQPSUJPO 4VSWJWBMQSPQPSUJPO

    4VSWJWBMSBUF $VNVMBUJWFJODJEFODF ܯ࡯΋ͨ͘͞Μ͍Δ
  22. 0QFO  f i YFE DMPTFEDPIPSU 22 $PIPSU 0QFODPIPSU $PIPSU

    $MPTFEDPIPSU $PIPSU 'JYFEDPIPSU ։์ தؒ ด࠯ ର৅ 
 ࣬ױ 
 ൃ঱ ର৅ 
 ࣬ױ 
 ൃ঱ $FOTPSJOH -PTTUPGPMMPXVQ *ODJEFODFQSPQPSUJPOɿº *ODJEFODFSBUFɿ˓ $FOTPSJOH͕ 
 গͳ͚Ε͹ൃੜׂ߹΋ଥ౰ *ODJEFODFQSPQPSUJPOɿ˚ *ODJEFODFSBUFɿ˓ *ODJEFODFQSPQPSUJPOɿ˓ *ODJEFODFSBUFɿ˓
  23. Πϕϯτͷൃੜͷࢦඪͷ·ͱΊʢӳޠϕʔεʣ 23 *ODJEFODFSBUF *ODJEFODFQSPQPSUJPO 4VSWJWBMQSPQPSUJPO 4VSWJWBMSBUF $VNVMBUJWFJODJEFODF   ,BQMBO.FJFSNFUIPE

    ୯Ґ͕ͳ͍ ୯Ґʹ࣌ؒΛؚΉ 1PSUB .JRVFM FE"EJDUJPOBSZPGFQJEFNJPMPHZ0YGPSEVOJWFSTJUZQSFTT  $MPTFEDPIPSU 'JYFEDPIPSU 0QFODPIPSU $FOTPSJOHͳ͚Ε͹ $FOTPSJOHΛؚΊͯɼ$VNVMBUJWFJODJEFODFΛܭࢉ͢Δํ๏
  24. ,BQMBO.FJFSNFUIPE  24 ඃݧऀࣝผίʔυ ੜଘ࣌ؒ Πϕϯτ   ࢮ๢ 

     ࢮ๢   ଧͪ੾Γ   ࢮ๢   ࢮ๢ ඃݧऀࣝผίʔυ ੜଘ࣌ؒ Πϕϯτ   ࢮ๢   ࢮ๢   ଧͪ੾Γ   ࢮ๢   ࢮ๢ ฒͼସ͑
  25. ,BQMBO.FJFSNFUIPE  25 ඃݧऀࣝผίʔυ ੜଘ࣌ؒ Πϕϯτ /VNCFSBUSJTL   ࢮ๢

       ࢮ๢    ଧͪ੾Γ    ࢮ๢    ࢮ๢  ೔໨ʹ/P͸ࢮ๢ˠ೔ͷ௚લ·Ͱ͸ɼਓ͕ࢮ๢ͷϦεΫʹ͞Β͞Ε͍ͯͨ /VNCFSBUSJTLɿΠϕϯτͷϦεΫʹ͞Β͞Ε͍ͯΔਓ਺
  26. ,BQMBO.FJFSNFUIPE  26 ೚ҙͷ࣌ؒ·ͰʹΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠ਓͷ਺Λ਺͑Δ ඃݧऀࣝผ 
 ίʔυ ੜଘ ࣌ؒ Πϕϯτ

    /VNCFS BUSJTL ˠ ੜଘ਺   ࢮ๢  ೔ͷ௚લ·ͰਓϦεΫʹ͞Β͞Ε͍ͯͯɼ 
 ೔ʹਓΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠    ࢮ๢  ೔ͷ௚લ·Ͱ  ਓϦεΫʹ͞Β͞Ε͍ͯͯɼ ೔ʹ  ਓΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠       ଧͪ੾Γ  ೔ͷ௚લ·Ͱ  ਓϦεΫʹ͞Β͞Ε͍ͯͯɼ 
 ೔ʹ  ਓΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠       ࢮ๢  ೔ͷ௚લ·Ͱ  ਓϦεΫʹ͞Β͞Ε͍ͯͯɼ 
 ೔ʹ  ਓΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠       ࢮ๢  ೔ͷ௚લ·Ͱ  ਓϦεΫʹ͞Β͞Ε͍ͯͯɼ 
 ೔ʹ  ਓΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠    
  27. ,BQMBO.FJFSNFUIPE  27 ೚ҙͷ࣌ؒ·ͰʹΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠ਓͷ਺Λ਺͑Δ ඃݧऀࣝผ 
 ίʔυ ੜଘ ࣌ؒ Πϕϯτ

    /VNCFS BUSJTL ˠ ੜଘ਺   ࢮ๢  ೔ͷ௚લ·ͰਓϦεΫʹ͞Β͞Ε͍ͯͯɼ 
 ೔ʹਓΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠    ࢮ๢  ೔ͷ௚લ·Ͱ  ਓϦεΫʹ͞Β͞Ε͍ͯͯɼ ೔ʹ  ਓΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠    ଧͪ੾Γ  ೔ͷ௚લ·Ͱ  ਓϦεΫʹ͞Β͞Ε͍ͯͯɼ 
 ೔ʹ  ਓΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠    ࢮ๢  ೔ͷ௚લ·Ͱ  ਓϦεΫʹ͞Β͞Ε͍ͯͯɼ 
 ೔ʹ  ਓΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠    ࢮ๢  ೔ͷ௚લ·Ͱ  ਓϦεΫʹ͞Β͞Ε͍ͯͯɼ 
 ೔ʹ  ਓΠϕϯτΛىͨ͜͠ 
  28. ,BQMBO.FJFSNFUIPE  28 ࣌఺͝ͱͷੜଘׂ߹ʢ৚݅෇͖֬཰ʣΛܭࢉ͢Δ ඃݧऀࣝผ 
 ίʔυ ੜଘ࣌ؒ Πϕϯτ /VNCFS

    BUSJTL ੜଘ਺ ੜଘׂ߹   ࢮ๢      ࢮ๢     ଧͪ੾Γ     ࢮ๢     ࢮ๢  
  29. ,BQMBO.FJFSNFUIPE  29 ࣌఺͝ͱͷੜଘׂ߹ʢ৚݅෇͖֬཰ʣΛܭࢉ͢Δ ඃݧऀࣝผ 
 ίʔυ ੜଘ࣌ؒ Πϕϯτ /VNCFS

    BUSJTL ੜଘ਺ ੜଘׂ߹   ࢮ๢      ࢮ๢      ଧͪ੾Γ      ࢮ๢      ࢮ๢   
  30. ,BQMBO.FJFSNFUIPE  30 ࣌఺͝ͱͷ$VNVMBUJWFTVSWJWBMΛٻΊΔ ඃݧऀࣝผ 
 ίʔυ ੜଘ࣌ؒ Πϕϯτ /VNCFS

    BUSJTL ੜଘ਺ ੜଘׂ߹ $VNVMBUJWFTVSWJWBM 4VSWJWBMSBUF 4VSWJWBMQSPQPSUJPO4VSWJWBMGVODUJPO ೔·Ͱ    ࢮ๢    º   ࢮ๢    ºº   ଧͪ੾Γ    ººº      ࢮ๢    ººº  º      ࢮ๢    ººº  º  º    ,BQMBO.FJFSFTUJNBUPS
  31. ,BQMBO.FJFSNFUIPE  31 ࣌఺͝ͱͷ$VNVMBUJWFTVSWJWBMΛٻΊΔ ඃݧऀࣝผ 
 ίʔυ ੜଘ࣌ؒ Πϕϯτ /VNCFS

    BUSJTL ੜଘ਺ ੜଘׂ߹ $VNVMBUJWFTVSWJWBM 4VSWJWBMSBUF 4VSWJWBMQSPQPSUJPO4VSWJWBMGVODUJPO ೔·Ͱ    ࢮ๢    º   ࢮ๢    ºº   ଧͪ੾Γ    ººº   ࢮ๢    ºººº   ࢮ๢    ººººº ,BQMBO.FJFSFTUJNBUPS
  32. ,BQMBO.FJFSNFUIPE  32 ࣌఺͝ͱͷ$VNVMBUJWFJODJEFODFΛٻΊΔ ඃݧऀࣝผ 
 ίʔυ ੜଘ࣌ؒ Πϕϯτ /VNCFS

    BUSJTL ੜଘ਺ ੜଘׂ߹ $VNVMBUJWF TVSWJWBM $VNVMBUJWFJODJEFODF $VNVMBUJWFTVSWJWBM ೔·Ͱ     ࢮ๢        ࢮ๢       ଧͪ੾Γ       ࢮ๢       ࢮ๢     ,BQMBO.FJFSFTUJNBUPS
  33. ,BQMBO.FJFSNFUIPE  33 ࣌఺͝ͱͷ$VNVMBUJWFJODJEFODFΛٻΊΔ ඃݧऀࣝผ 
 ίʔυ ੜଘ࣌ؒ Πϕϯτ /VNCFS

    BUSJTL ੜଘ਺ ੜଘׂ߹ $VNVMBUJWF TVSWJWBM $VNVMBUJWFJODJEFODF $VNVMBUJWFTVSWJWBM ೔·Ͱ     ࢮ๢        ࢮ๢        ଧͪ੾Γ        ࢮ๢        ࢮ๢      ,BQMBO.FJFSFTUJNBUPS
  34. 3FTVMUT  34 ܾఆ໦ ,BQMBO.FJFS 
 FTUJNBUPS

  35. 3FTVMUT  35

  36. 3FTVMUT  36 ,BQMBO.FJFS 
 FTUJNBUPS ,BQMBO.FJFS 
 FTUJNBUPS

  37. ࢀߟจݙ 37 w ྛݡҰɼԼฏӳणʢʣɼ3ͰֶͿ౷ܭతσʔλղੳɼߨஊࣾɽ w ໦ݪਖ਼തɼ໦ݪխࢠʢʣɼΞυόϯετ෼ੳӸֶͷਤදͰಡΈղ ͘Ӹֶతਪ࿦ͷ࿦ཧͱ਺஋ɼϝσΟΧϧɾαΠΤϯεɾΠϯλʔφγϣφϧɽ w )PTNFS %8

    -FNFTIPX 4 .BZ 4  ੜଘ࣌ؒղੳೖ໳ ݪ ॻ ౦ژେֶग़൛ɽ