Motani Presentation

Transcript

1. 1 Will “ABENOMICS” Work? --- Inconvenient View from Demographic Aspects May 14, 2013 Kosuke Motani Chief Senior Economist, Economist Department Japan Research Institute, Limited kosuke@motani.com ΠϝʔδΛදࣔͰ͖·ͤΜɻϝϞϦෆ଍ͷͨΊʹΠϝʔδΛ։͘͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ͳ͍͔ɺΠϝʔδ͕ഁଛ͍ͯ͠Δ Մೳੑ͕͋Γ·͢ɻίϯϐϡʔλʔΛ࠶ىಈͯ͠࠶౓ϑΝΠϧΛ։͍͍ͯͩ͘͞ɻͦΕͰ΋੺͍ x ͕දࣔ͞Ε Δ৔߹͸ɺΠϝʔδΛ࡟আͯ͠ૠೖ͍ͯͩ͘͠͞ɻ
2. 2 ☆  Monetary  easing  makes  economy  grow.  ←  It  will  do  so,  provided  people/enterprises   spend  up  the  money  earned  without  saving. ★ Fiscal Expenditure in recession supports demand and increases future tax income. ← You’re right, if the recession is the cyclical one. ☆  Innovations  increase  the  total  factor   productivity  and  let  the  economy  grow.    ←  It  is  always  true,  since  the  definition  of  TFP  is   “something  other  than  capital  and  labor  that   makes  the  economy  grow,”  while  innovation   means  “something  that  increases  TFP.”    ←  Logically  speaking,  this  is  just  a  tautology. What Economists Believe/Dream Of? General Theories and Underlying Premises
3. 3 ☆  …  Even  though  Bank  of  Japan  has  increased   the  monetary  base  2.5  times  more  between   1995  and  2005.  ←  Japanese  riches  and  enterprises  have   deposited  the  cash  earned  without  spending. ★ … Even tough the Government has been spending up enormous amount of money until it owes the world’s largest debt. ← The recession in Japan is not the cyclical one. ☆  …  Even  though  Japan  has  been  one  of  the   most  aggressively  innovative  societies.    ←  Innovations  occurred  in  Japan  have  not  been   the  one  that  increase  total  factor  productivity. GDP of Japan Stopped Growing in mid 1990’s, Even Though… The First Arrow May Fly To Nowhere… The Second Arrow May Turn Out To Be Useless… The Third Arrow May Be An Ineffective Pray…
4. 4 Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan Age15-64 43.0 Million Age65&Over 3.4 Million
5. 5 Many Were Born under Political Encouragement Many Were Born with Survivors’ Joys for Peace Age15-64 49.7 Million Age65&Over 4.1 Million Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
6. 6 Angry Youth Protested to Conservative Government, with Unconscious Fear that Many of Them Would not Get Jobs. Age15-64 60.0 Million Age65&Over 5.4 Million Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
7. 7 Baby Boomers Joined Labor Market, Contributed to Export Boom, and Brought Japan’s “Rapid Growth.” Age15-64 71.6 Million Age65&Over 7.3 Million Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
8. 8 Baby Boomers Forming Young Families Enlarged Domestic Demands, Giving Japan “Steady Growth. “ Age15-64 78.9 Million Age65&Over 10.7 Million Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
9. 9 Baby Boomers, Being Twice More than Their Parents, Eagerly Bought New Houses and Brought House-Construction Boom. Age15-64 85.9 Million Age65&Over 14.9 Million Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
10. 10 BB Juniors Entered Labor Market under Recession, Increasing Employment and Unemployment at the Same Time. Age15-64 87.2 Million Age65&Over 18.3 Million Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan Reached Maximum.
11. 11 Aging Baby Boomers Started Consuming Less. Age15-64 86.2 Million Age65&Over 22.0 Million Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan Started Decreasing
12. 12 Rapid Increase of Late- Seniors Makes Social Welfare System Malfunctioning Retiring Baby Boomers Consume Even Less. Rapid Decrease of Working Age Population Brings Inevitable Shrink of Domestic Demand Many BB Juniors’ Suffering from Low Wages of Unstable Jobs Makes Their Consumption Weak. Age15-64 81.7 Million Age65&Over 29.5 Million Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
13. 13 Dramatic Decrease of Working Age Population, Even Though the Prospects Assumes Record-high Inflow of Foreign Immigration. Aging BB Juniors Will Start Consuming Less. Ultra Rise of the Late-Seniors Age15-64 73.4 Million Age65&Over 36.1 Million Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
14. 14 Age15-64 67.7 Million Age65&Over 36.9 Million Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
15. 15 Age15-64 57.9 Million Age65&Over 38.7 Million Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
16. 16 Age15-64 50.0 Million Age65&Over 37.7 Million Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
17. 17 Age15-64 44.2 Million Age65&Over 34.6 Million Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
18. 18 Japan: Already Aged and Still Aging
19. 19 Decreasing Employment in Japan
20. 20 In Japan, Change in Working Age Population Decides Change in # of Those Employed
21. 21 # Employed Gross Sales Labor Productivity Value Added Less Labor, Same Production, More Productivity
22. 22 Less Labor, Less Wage Paid, Less Domestic Sales
23. 23 Increasing Exports Ended in Increase of Personal Income of Senior & Rich Investors. Increasing Retirement of Senior Workers Enhanced Factories’ Productivity and Ended in Export Increase . Under Decreasing Working Age Population and Increasing Retirement, Increased Personal Income Did Not Trickle Down to Domestic Retail Sales. Monetary Policy Once Increased Export, Personal Income, but not Domestic Sales
24. 24 ☆  Modern  Machineries  with  IT  substitute  human   labor,  increase  labor  productivity  and  Export,   while  keeping  production  level. ★ Decreasing working age population ends in decreasing # of workers and less amount of gross wages, reducing the amount of commodities needed. ☆  Stable  production  and  decreasing  needs   result  in  price  drop  and  less  demand.   ★ Seniors who likely own 83% of $14 trillion personal financial assets do not consume as much materials as youths do, but just enjoy saving. Declining Working Age Population Decreases Demand, not Supply Not a General Theory, but a “Inconvenient Reality” in Japan
25. 25 Social Security Expense and Aging Total Expense: Exact Correlation to Late Senior Age Population Government Spending: Rapid Rise due to Working Age Pop. Decline Equivalent to Annual Tax Income of National Government
26. 26 Medical and Care for Aged Expense Total Expense: Exact Correlation to Late Senior Age Population Government Spending: Rise due to Working Age Pop. Decline
27. 27 Medical and Care for Aged Expense Total Expense: Increasing Faster than Late Senior Age Population Government Spending: Rocket Rise due to Wrkng Age Pop. Decline Equivalent to Half of Annual Tax Income of National Government
28. 28 Unemployed Female would Save Us Senior Citizens in Japan Do Not Consume as They Did When Young 3,409 827 1,682 855 1,655 869 Full-time Worker Part-time Worke Unemployed House Workers Students Others 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Female Male Source: National Census # of Labors in Japan 2005, Including Foreingers Ten Tousands→
29. 29 ☆  Let  younger  generation  get  the  financial   assets;  through  accelerated  inheritance  with   tax  incentives,  promoting  consumption  of  rich   seniors  by  innovative  product  development,   and  raising  wages  by  cutting  off  dividends.   ★ Let more women work, while raising their wages. ☆  Let  more  foreigners  come  to  Japan,  not  to   work  as  cheap  labor  but  to  travel  around,   stay  in,  live  on  and  consume.   ★ Reforms of the systems of pension, medical and care for senior citizens look urgent. Do not blame neither economy nor government, since the initial cause is the aging of all of us. Blaming without facing the fact delays our actions. Four Suggestions I wrote in my Book
30. 30 Age15-64 1.20 Million Age65&Over 0.07 Million Migration does not Count in Aging Singapore
31. 31 Age15-64 1.65 Million Age65&Over 0.12 Million Migration does not Count in Aging Singapore
32. 32 Age15-64 2.20 Million Age65&Over 0.17 Million Migration does not Count in Aging Singapore
33. 33 Age15-64 2.86 Million Age65&Over 0.29 Million Migration does not Count in Aging Singapore
34. 34 Age15-64 3.59 Million Age65&Over 0.50 Million Migration does not Count in Aging Singapore
35. 35 Age15-64 3.66 Million Age65&Over 0.93 Million Migration does not Count in Aging Singapore
36. 36 Age15-64 3.25 Million Age65&Over 1.50 Million Migration does not Count in Aging Singapore
37. 37 Age15-64 3.02 Million Age65&Over 1.77 Million Migration does not Count in Aging Singapore
38. 38 Age15-64 2.94 Million Age65&Over 1.70 Million Migration does not Count in Aging Singapore
39. 39 Foreign Immigrants Can be a Solution? Population level as if those had lived in Singapore in 1990 have got older for next 20 years, without going out of the country nor becoming dead Increase due to foreigners’ inflow
40. 40 Increase due to foreigners’ inflow Foreign Immigrants Ends in more Seniors Population level as if those had lived in Singapore in 1990 have got older for next 50 years, without going out of the country nor becoming dead
41. 41 China: Dynamic Emerging and Maturing Age15-64 457 Million Age65&Over 35 Million
42. 42 China: Dynamic Emerging and Maturing Age15-64 586 Million Age65&Over 47 Million
43. 43 China: Dynamic Emerging and Maturing Age15-64 755 Million Age65&Over 63 Million
44. 44 China: Dynamic Emerging and Maturing Age15-64 855 Million Age65&Over 86 Million
45. 45 China: Dynamic Emerging and Maturing Age15-64 973 Million Age65&Over 111 Million
46. 46 China: Dynamic Emerging and Maturing Age15-64 996 Million Age65&Over 167 Million
47. 47 China: Dynamic Emerging and Maturing Age15-64 983 Million Age65&Over 233 Million
48. 48 China: Dynamic Emerging and Maturing Age15-64 916 Million Age65&Over 317 Million
49. 49 China: Dynamic Emerging and Maturing Age15-64 870 Million Age65&Over 331 Million
50. 50 Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea Age15-64 17.2 Million Age65&Over 1.0 Million
51. 51 Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea Age15-64 23.3 Million Age65&Over 1.5 Million
52. 52 Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea Age15-64 30.1 Million Age65&Over 2.2 Million
53. 53 Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea Age15-64 33.0 Million Age65&Over 3.4 Million
54. 54 Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea Age15-64 34.8 Million Age65&Over 5.4 Million
55. 55 Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea Age15-64 36.6 Million Age65&Over 8.1 Million
56. 56 Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea Age15-64 32.9 Million Age65&Over 12.8 Million
57. 57 Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea Age15-64 28.9 Million Age65&Over 16.7 Million
58. 58 Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea Age15-64 25.4 Million Age65&Over 18.3 Million
59. 59 Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea Age15-64 21.9 Million Age65&Over 18.2 Million
60. 60 Japan: Already Aged and Still Aging
61. 61 Korea: Not Yet Aged but Will Age Rapidly
62. 62 China: Not Yet Aged but Will Age Rapidly
63. 63 Taiwan: Not Yet Aged but Will Age Rapidly
64. 64 Singapore: Not Yet Aged but Will Age Rapidly
65. 65 Europe: Gradual but Steady Aging
66. 66 USA: Seniors are Doubling in 30 Years
67. 67 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Senior  Age  Population  ÷  Working  Age  Population 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Junior  Age  Population  ÷  Working  Age  Population China South Korea Japan Junior age: 0-14yrs old / Working age: 15-64yrs old / Senior age: 65yrs old an Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nati Figures include foreign residents数字には在留外国人を含む Decrease  of  Children  and  Increase  of  Senior  Citiz 1970-‐‑‒1980-‐‑‒1990-‐‑‒2000-‐‑‒2010-‐‑‒2020-‐‑‒2030-‐‑‒2040-‐‑‒2050年年 1970 1980 1980 1970 1990 2000 2000 1990 2010 2020 2020 2050 2040 2050 1970 1980 1990 2000 2030 2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2040 2030 2010 Korea, China and Japan: Time Difference
68. 68 Americans Also Aging But Dying Earlier 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Senior  Age  Population  ÷  Working  Age  Population 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Junior  Age  Population  ÷  Working  Age  Population Singapore USA South Korea Europe Japan Junior age: 0-14yrs old / Working age: 15-64yrs old / Senior age: 65yrs old Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nat Figures include foreign residen Decrease  of  Children  and  Increase  of  Senior  Citiz 1970-‐‑‒1980-‐‑‒1990-‐‑‒2000-‐‑‒2010-‐‑‒2020-‐‑‒2030-‐‑‒2040-‐‑‒2050年年 2040 2030 2020 2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 2050 2050 2050 1970 1980 1990 1970 2010 2040 2030 2020 1980 1990 2010 1990 1970 2050 2020