hadrons. Bound by strong nuclear force. Described by Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD). Quark-gluon plasma QCD crossover transition T ∼ 165 MeV ∼ 1012 K. Deconfined quarks and gluons. Hot and dense, short mean free path (fluid-like). 3 / 29
QGP in the first microseconds after the Big Bang. Small amounts created in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. RHIC / BNL Au+Au, Cu+Cu, U+U √ s ≤ 200 GeV LHC / CERN Pb+Pb √ s = 2.76 TeV 4 / 29
x p y b Pressure gradient → fluid flow: ( + P) ∂v ∂t = −∇P K. O’Hara, S. Hemmer, M. Gehm, S. Granade, J. Thomas, Science 298, 2179 (2002). Initial-state spatial anisotropy =⇒ Final-state momentum anisotropy 6 / 29
∝ 1 + n vn cos[n(φ − ψn)] φ: Angle of transverse momentum ψn : Reaction-plane angle (phase) n = 2 n = 3 n = 4 Flow provides essential evidence for the existence of a strongly-interacting QCD phase. 7 / 29
Strongly-interacting fluid → short mean free path → small η Viscosity damps collective behavior (flow). Shear stress τ x y τ = η ∂vx ∂y η ∼ nmvavg mf ∼ mf /vavg ∼ tmf 9 / 29
to entropy density, η/s. η ∼ tmf , s ∼ n =⇒ η/s ∼ ( /n)tmf 1 Water η/s ∼ 300 at STP, Helium η/s ∼ 2 at 3 K, QGP η/s ∼ O(10−1). small η/s large v2 large η/s small v2 Measuring QGP η/s: Observe experimental vn. Run model with variable η/s. Constrain η/s by matching vn. 10 / 29
density based on nucleon overlap. MC-KLN model Randomly samples nucleon positions. Uses effective field theory to calculate gluon densities → proportional to energy density. Many others. Pb+Pb, b = 8 fm 10 5 0 5 10 x [fm] 10 5 0 5 10 y [fm] 12 / 29
MeV. Freezes into hadrons on hypersurface σ according to Cooper-Frye formula E dNi d3p = σ fi (x, p) pµ d3σµ Randomly sample to produce an ensemble of particles. 14 / 29
expensive, ∼1 hour per event. Need O(103) events per parameter-point to study fluctuations. Must vary all parameters simultaneously. Strategies Evaluate model at efficient pre-determined parameter points. Latin-hypercube sampling. Interpolate between explicitly calculated points. Gaussian process emulator. 17 / 29
variables, any finite number of which have a joint Gaussian distribution. Instead of drawing variables from a distribution, functions are drawn from a process. Require a covariance function, e.g. cov(x1 , x2) ∝ exp − (x1 − x2)2 2 2 Nearby points correlated, distant points independent. Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning, Rasmussen and Williams, 2006. 19 / 29
Posterior: Gaussian process conditioned on model outputs. Training Prior Posterior Emulator is a fast surrogate to the actual model. More certain near calculated points. Less certain in gaps. 20 / 29
and UrQMD): MC-Glauber & MC-KLN initial conditions H.-J. Drescher and Y. Nara, Phys. Rev. C 74, 044905 (2006). Viscous hydro H. Song and U. Heinz, Phys. Rev. C 77, 064901 (2008). Cooper-Frye sampler Z. Qiu and C. Shen, arXiv:1308.2182 [nucl-th]. UrQMD (Ultrarelativistic Quantum Molecular Dynamics) S. Bass et. al., Prog. Part. Nucl. Phys. 41, 255 (1998). M. Bleicher et. al., J. Phys. G 25, 1859 (1999). → Tailored for running many events on Open Science Grid. 22 / 29
level of knowledge-extraction capability. Preliminary results consistent with previous work. Improve goodness of fit: beyond average flow. Emulator: vary single parameters independently, determine best-fit parameter values. Calibrate simultaneously on other observables, e.g. multiplicity. Repeat with more advanced models, especially initial conditions. 29 / 29
= 1 2πδ2 vn e −(vn−vRP n )2 2δ2 vn . Integrate out angle P(vn) = vn δ2 vn e −(vn)2+(vRP n )2 2δ2 vn I0 vRP n vn δ2 vn . obs 2,x v -0.2 0 0.2 obs 2,y v -0.2 0 0.2 0 500 1000 centrality: 20-25% ATLAS Pb+Pb =2.76 TeV NN s -1 b µ = 7 int L |<2.5 η >0.5 GeV,| T p obs 2 v 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 Events 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 |<2.5 η >0.5 GeV,| T p ATLAS Pb+Pb =2.76 TeV NN s -1 b µ = 7 int L centrality: 20-25% 5 / 8
and nonflow P(vobs n ) = P(vobs n |vn)P(vn) dvn where P(vobs n |vn) is the response function. Pure statistical smearing → Gaussian response P(vobs n |vn) = vobs n δ2 vn e −(vobs n )2+(vn)2 2δ2 vn I0 vnvobs n δ2 vn . vRP n unaffected; width increased as δ2 vn → δ2 vn + 1/2M. 6 / 8
predictions θi , what is the likelihood that the model describes reality? L ∼ exp − i (yi − θi )2 2σ2 i Or as a null hypothesis: can the model be rejected based on comparison to the data? (e.g. If a coin is flipped N times and yields heads each time, what is the probability that it is fair?) y σ θ 7 / 8