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ICU 151 support material
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Nicolas Fauchereau
March 27, 2013
Science
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45
ICU 151 support material
Support material (preliminary) for the ICU 151 teleconference
Nicolas Fauchereau
March 27, 2013
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Transcript
Island Climate Update 151 Forecast period: April– June
2013 Teleconference Thursday. 28th of March 2013 (12:30 PM NZ Cme) 28/03/13 1
1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecCon, circulaCon and SST
anomalies last month (March 2013) 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaCon and forecast 3) Madden-‐Julian OscillaCon (MJO) diagnosCcs and forecasts 4) METPI Rainfall Forecast 5) METPI SST Forecast 28/03/13 2 Outline
1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec;on) and SST in the SW Pacific
28/03/13 3
Rainfall anomalies and averages (TRMM) 28/03/13
4
Rainfall anomalies and averages (TRMM) 28/03/13
5 TC Sandra (March 9 – March 14)
NOAA OLR Anomalies 28/03/13 6 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml
28/03/13 7 Circula;on anomalies: Geopoten;al at 1000hPa and
wind NCEP / DOE to the 27th of March
28/03/13 8 Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for
ICU Islands group (TRMM) Experimental product, March values from 2013/03/01 to 2013/03/25
SST anomalies February 2013 SST anomalies March 2013
28/03/13 9
2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa;on and forecast
28/03/13 10
SOI and SST NINO INDICES 28/03/13 Datasource =
BoM (h[p://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/) 11
The ENSO Precipita;on Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days
(to 26 Mar. 2013) is 0.00 SOI and ESPI INDICES 28/03/13 h[p://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html 12
Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies 28/03/13
13 22: TAO array equatorial SSTs and zonal winds SST and Zonal wind anomalies along the Equatorial Pac. From TAO http ://www. pmel . noaa . gov/ tao / j s d i s p l a y / ( s e c t i o n p l o t s )
Ocean sub-‐surface and heat content anomalies 28/03/13
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/ jsdisplay/ 14 h[p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
ENSO forecast © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal
Guidance) 28/03/13 15
3) MJO diagnos;cs and forecasts 28/03/13 16
Madden Julian Oscilla;on Monitoring (BoM) 28/03/13 h[p://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or
h[p://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/ 17
Madden Julian Oscilla;on Dynamical Forecast (CPC) 28/03/13 h[p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
18
5) METPI Rainfall forecasts 28/03/13 19
28/03/13 20 MAM 2013 AMJ 2013
28/03/13 21 METPI rainfall results !!!! PRELIMINARY
!!!
28/03/13 22 METPI rainfall results !!!! PRELIMINARY
!!!
6) METPI SST forecasts 28/03/13 23
28/03/13 24 MAM 2013 AMJ 2013
SST anomalies March 2013
28/03/13 25 METPI SST results