Modeling the Importance of Flight Partners at Skyscanner

Tatia Engelmore, Data Science Manager, Skyscanner

Transcript

1. Modeling the Effect of Removing a Partner Tatia Engelmore Data Science Manager @ Skyscanner tatia.engelmore@skyscanner.net Tech talks, February 8th 2018 1
2. Skyscanner Partners Skyscanner works with a large number of flight suppliers. These include airlines and online travel agents. Sometimes partner connections go down and we can’t pull quotes from them. How big of a problem is this?
3. Skyscanner Partners A partner connection goes down . . . Do we need to wake up an engineer to fix it??
4. Step back: Why this project? Prioritizing Data Science Projects • Impact • Easy to put into production? • Reusability across our verticals (flights, hotels, car hire)
5. What happens when we remove a partner? Currently we show all possible partners for a given route. Is it crucial we show each partner?
6. What happens when we remove a partner? If Opodo were no longer a partner, would people still book on eDreams?
7. What happens when a partner is removed? Can travelers still find all the relevant flights without a given partner? Is the price still competitive without that partner? How much do we rely on each partner for coverage?
8. Partner removal: iterative approach Strategy • Does the traveler still have intent to book? Or do they decide they’re not interested in that booking panel anymore? This is hard. • Simplest model: assume traveler will still click without the partner if they clicked before. Figure out which new partner takes the click. New cheapest partner gets the click (this is our baseline). • Simple model: random forest used for click prediction. • Complex model: two-step model. First predict if any partner will still be clicked, then predict which one.
9. Partner removal: simple approach 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.11 0.03 0.01 0.0001 0.75 0.4 0.35 0.15 0.13 0.05 0.02 0.0001
10. Partner removal: simple approach results Results and Next Steps • Easy to get good results because vast majority of clicks go to the top position. Most important feature: is partner the cheapest. • Verify model: AB test dropping a partner.
11. Come join us! https://www.skyscanner.net/jobs/