Island Climate Update 170

Preliminary support material for the Island Climate Update issue 170 teleconference

Transcript

1. Island  Climate  Update  170   Forecast  period:   November  2014  –  January  2015   Teleconference  Wednesday  5  of  November  2014   (12:30  PM  NZ  Eme)   5/11/14   1  
2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecEon,  circulaEon  and  SST  anomalies   last  month  (October  2014)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaEon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaEon  (MJO)  diagnosEcs  and  forecasts     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     5/11/14   2   Outline    
3. 1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec<on)  and  SST  in  the  SW  Pacific   5/11/14   3  
4. Rainfall  averages  and  anomalies  (TRMM)     5/11/14   4  
5. 5/11/14   5  
6. 5/11/14   6   •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)  
7. SST  anomalies  September  2014   SST  anomalies  October  2014   5/11/14   7  
8. 2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa<on  and  forecast     5/11/14   8  
9. SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   5/11/14   Datasource  =  BoM  (h^p://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   9  
10. The  ENSO  Precipita<on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days  (4  Nov.)  is  0.24     (El  Nino  side  of  Neutral)   SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES   5/11/14   h^p://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html   10  
11. Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   5/11/14   11  
12. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   5/11/14   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 12   h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml  
13. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   5/11/14   13   From  h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evoluEon-­‐status-­‐fcsts-­‐web.pdf     Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific Most recent pentad analysis Recently, positive subsurface anomalies in the central Pacific appear to be expanding eastward. Since early September, positive subsurface temperature anomalies have stretched across most of the equatorial Pacific.
14. 5/11/14   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14   h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-­‐10/ wksl_anm.gif   Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies  
15. Weekly Heat Content Evolution in the Equatorial Pacific Oceanic Kelvin waves have alternating warm and cold phases. The warm phase is indicated by dashed lines. Down-welling and warming occur in the leading portion of a Kelvin wave, and up-welling and cooling occur in the trailing portion. During January - May 2014, the downwelling phase of a strong Kelvin wave crossed the Pacific. During May-July, positive temperature anomalies progressively disappeared from the equatorial Pacific in response to the upwelling phase of the Kelvin wave. Since early October, positive subsurface temperature anomalies have expanded eastward. 5/11/14   15   Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies   From  h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evoluEon-­‐status-­‐fcsts-­‐web.pdf    
16. ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       5/11/14   16   Season   La  Niña   Prob.   Neutral   Prob.   El  Niño   Prob.   NDJ  2014/15   0%   34%   66%   FMA  2015   0%   33%   67%   MJJ  2015   3%   42%   55%  
17. 3)  MJO  diagnos<cs  and  forecasts     5/11/14   17  
18. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Monitoring  (BoM)   5/11/14   h^p://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/  or  h^p://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/     18  
19. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Dynamical  Forecast  (CPC)   5/11/14   h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     19  
20. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  sta<s<cal  Forecast  (CPC)   5/11/14   h^p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     20  
21. 4)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts   5/11/14   21  
22. 5/11/14   22  
23. 5/11/14   23   METPI  rainfall  results   November 2014 – January 2015 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Kiribati (Western) 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Papua New Guinea 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Solomon Islands 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Austral Islands 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Cook Islands (Southern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Niue 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Samoa 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Society Islands 30 35 35 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate Wallis & Futuna 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Kiribati (Eastern) 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate Tokelau 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate Tuamotu Islands 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate Tuvalu 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate FSM 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate Cook Islands (Northern) 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High New Caledonia 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Tonga 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Fiji 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Marquesas 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Vanuatu 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is an overall assessment of the expected rainfall relative to normal for the time of year.
24. 5/11/14   24   METPI  rainfall  results  
25. 6)  METPI  SST  forecasts   5/11/14   25  
26. 5/11/14   26