Olesya Kozlovskaya, Arseny Alikhanov, Google

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November 06, 2018

Olesya Kozlovskaya, Arseny Alikhanov, Google

2018 in Review: (a short) Google's Perspective on Mobile Gaming Marketing Trends

(White Nights Conference Moscow 2018)
The official conference website — http://wnconf.com

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November 06, 2018
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  1. Proprietary + Confidential Perspective on Mobile Gaming Marketing Olesya Kozlovskaya

    | Analytical Consultant, Gaming Arseniy Alikhanov | Analytical Consultant, Gaming
  2. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential Part 1: The state

    of Gaming in 2018 Part 2: UAC Optimization Strategies + Creatives Part 3: Revolutionize your strategy with Machine Learning Agenda
  3. Proprietary + Confidential The state of Gaming in 2018

  4. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential Big numbers first Number

    of gamers worldwide?
  5. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential Big numbers first Source:

    NewZoo Global Gaming report Number of gamers worldwide 2.35 Billion
  6. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential Big numbers first Installs

    acquired with Google?
  7. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential Big numbers first Source:

    NewZoo Global Gaming report Installs acquired with Google? 10+ Billion
  8. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential Big numbers first Market

    capitalization?
  9. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential Big numbers first Source:

    NewZoo Global Gaming report Market capitalization? $137.9 Billion
  10. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential Big numbers first

  11. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential Three big things in

    2018 Source: NewZoo Global Gaming report
  12. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential Three big things in

    2018 Source: NewZoo Global Gaming report
  13. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential Three big things in

    2018 Source: NewZoo Global Gaming report
  14. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential Three big things in

    2018 Source: NewZoo Global Gaming report HYPERCASUAL
  15. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential 952M There were almost

    1 Billion downloads of hypercasual games in 2016 Source: AppAnnie.
  16. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential 952M 1.52B +60% Whole

    gaming: +13% And then, they start growing fast… More than 1.5B of downloads in 2017 Source: AppAnnie.
  17. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential 952M 1.52B 1.85B (E)

    3.28B (E) +60% Whole gaming: +13% +116% ...like really fast. More than 3.2B downloads in 2018 is expected Source: AppAnnie. 3.28B (E)
  18. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential 952M 1.52B 1.85B (E)

    3.28B (E) +60% Whole gaming: +13% +116% ...like really fast. More than 3.2B downloads in 2018 is expected Source: AppAnnie. Note: only apps, published by Playgendary, Voodoo, Ketchapp Studio, Playdots, Easybrain, Miniclip, Tap Tap Games, SuperTapx, Kwalee, TabTale, BitMango, BoomBit, FuturePlay, Green Panda, Homa 3.28B (E)
  19. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential Things behind growth

  20. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential Things behind growth •

    CPM growth
  21. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential Things behind growth •

    CPM growth • Number of titles (tens and hundreds)
  22. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential Things behind growth •

    CPM growth • Number of titles (tens and hundreds) • User Acquisition
  23. Proprietary + Confidential Proprietary + Confidential Things behind growth •

    CPM growth • Number of titles (tens and hundreds) • User Acquisition • Cross-promo
  24. Proprietary + Confidential UAC Optimization Strategies + Creatives

  25. Proprietary + Confidential Mobile Games: 26.8% Growth YoY

  26. Proprietary + Confidential In 2018, mobile games will generate $70.3B

    or 51% of Global Gaming market.
  27. Proprietary + Confidential Gaming already accounts for: • Over 90%

    of Google Play Revenue. Gaming @ Google
  28. Proprietary + Confidential

  29. Proprietary + Confidential Starting on October 16th, all new app

    install campaigns created in Google Ads run only through UAC Year ago...
  30. Proprietary + Confidential One tool to reach a multi-billion audience

    through 7 major products & 2 OS /
  31. Proprietary + Confidential UAC became the most efficient campaign type

    when the main goal is reach or when studios consider engagement and revenue as bigger priorities.
  32. Proprietary + Confidential App strategies & Goals Installs tCPI Actions

    tCPA Value tROAS* UAC Installs UAC Installs, Advanced UAC Actions UAC Value
  33. Proprietary + Confidential Understanding the gaming user base segmentation Engagement

    (Play Time) Low High Spend (ARPU) High Low Whales Sporadic Spenders Economical Enthusiasts Casual/New
  34. Proprietary + Confidential Looking for the right user segment mix

    Casual/New Economical Enthusiasts Sporadic Spenders Whales Value Scale Having the right user segment mix is key for the success of the game The right user segment mix is function of • Studio strategy • Monetisation model • Game maturity
  35. Proprietary + Confidential Understanding your app’s strategy and goals User

    segment Casual/New Economical Enthusiasts Spenders/Whales Goal Scale Engagement Revenue What are the associated KPIs?
  36. Proprietary + Confidential User segment Casual/New Economical Enthusiasts Spenders/Whales Goal

    Scale Engagement Revenue What are the associated KPIs? - Max scale below tCPI - Max scale for a specific budget Understanding your app’s strategy and goals
  37. Proprietary + Confidential User segment Casual/New Economical Enthusiasts Spenders/Whales Goal

    Scale Engagement Revenue What are the associated KPIs? - Max scale below tCPI - Max scale for a specific budget - Short term retention (D1, D3) - Med term retention (D7,14) Understanding your app’s strategy and goals
  38. Proprietary + Confidential User segment Casual/New Economical Enthusiasts Spenders/Whales Goal

    Scale Engagement Revenue What are the associated KPIs? - Max scale below tCPI - Max scale for a specific budget - Short term retention (D1, D3) - Med term retention (D7,14) - Short term ROAS (D3, D7) - Med term ROAS (D14, D30) - Cost per purchaser - Cost per purchase at x days Understanding your app’s strategy and goals
  39. Proprietary + Confidential User segment Casual/New Economical Enthusiasts Spenders/Whales Goal

    Scale Engagement Revenue What are the associated KPIs? - Max scale below tCPI - Max scale for a specific budget - Short term retention (D1, D3) - Med term retention (D7,14) - Short term ROAS (D3, D7) - Med term ROAS (D14, D30) - Cost per purchaser - Cost per purchase at x days Events to track Understanding your app’s strategy and goals
  40. Proprietary + Confidential User segment Casual/New Economical Enthusiasts Spenders/Whales Goal

    Scale Engagement Revenue What are the associated KPIs? - Max scale below tCPI - Max scale for a specific budget - Short term retention (D1, D3) - Med term retention (D7,14) - Short term ROAS (D3, D7) - Med term ROAS (D14, D30) - Cost per purchaser - Cost per purchase at x days Events to track - Install /1st open Understanding your app’s strategy and goals
  41. Proprietary + Confidential User segment Casual/New Economical Enthusiasts Spenders/Whales Goal

    Scale Engagement Revenue What are the associated KPIs? - Max scale below tCPI - Max scale for a specific budget - Short term retention (D1, D3) - Med term retention (D7,14) - Short term ROAS (D3, D7) - Med term ROAS (D14, D30) - Cost per purchaser - Cost per purchase at x days Events to track - Install /1st open - App open at Dx - Level X achieved - X sessions played - Tutorial completion Understanding your app’s strategy and goals
  42. Proprietary + Confidential User segment Casual/New Economical Enthusiasts Spenders/Whales Goal

    Scale Engagement Revenue What are the associated KPIs? - Max scale below tCPI - Max scale for a specific budget - Short term retention (D1, D3) - Med term retention (D7,14) - Short term ROAS (D3, D7) - Med term ROAS (D14, D30) - Cost per purchaser - Cost per purchase at x days Events to track - Install /1st open - App open at Dx - Level X achieved - X sessions played - Tutorial completion - Purchases with value - 1st time purchase - Virtual currency spent - iAP shop visited Understanding your app’s strategy and goals
  43. Proprietary + Confidential User segment Casual/New Economical Enthusiasts Spenders/Whales Goal

    Scale Engagement Revenue What are the associated KPIs? - Max scale below tCPI - Max scale for a specific budget - Short term retention (D1, D3) - Med term retention (D7,14) - Short term ROAS (D3, D7) - Med term ROAS (D14, D30) - Cost per purchaser - Cost per purchase at x days Events to track - 1st open - App open at Dx - Level X achieved - X sessions played - Tutorial completion - Purchases with value - 1st time purchase - Virtual currency spent - iAP shop visited Preferred UAC Mix UAC Installs UAC Installs Advanced Understanding your app’s strategy and goals
  44. Proprietary + Confidential User segment Casual/New Economical Enthusiasts Spenders/Whales Goal

    Scale Engagement Revenue What are the associated KPIs? - Max scale below tCPI - Max scale for a specific budget - Short term retention (D1, D3) - Med term retention (D7,14) - Short term ROAS (D3, D7) - Med term ROAS (D14, D30) - Cost per purchaser - Cost per purchase at x days Events to track - 1st open - App open at Dx - Level X achieved - X sessions played - Tutorial completion - Purchases with value - 1st time purchase - Virtual currency spent - iAP shop visited Preferred UAC Mix UAC Installs UAC Installs Advanced UAC Actions (retention event) Understanding your app’s strategy and goals
  45. Proprietary + Confidential User segment Casual/New Economical Enthusiasts Spenders/Whales Goal

    Scale Engagement Revenue What are the associated KPIs? - Max scale below tCPI - Max scale for a specific budget - Short term retention (D1, D3) - Med term retention (D7,14) - Short term ROAS (D3, D7) - Med term ROAS (D14, D30) - Cost per purchaser - Cost per purchase at x days Events to track - 1st open - App open at Dx - Level X achieved - X sessions played - Tutorial completion - Purchases with value - 1st time purchase - Virtual currency spent - iAP shop visited Preferred UAC Mix UAC Installs UAC Installs Advanced UAC Actions (retention event) UAC Actions (revenue event) UAC Value* Understanding your app’s strategy and goals
  46. Proprietary + Confidential How to stay in control of the

    machine Bids Creative Event Selection Budget With less levers to pull, creative asset strategy is even more important to succeed with UAC
  47. Proprietary + Confidential Ad Format The specific format a creative

    is rendered on (e.g. Interstitial AdMob or YouTube TrueView). Ad Formats are auto generated from different assets Asset An ad component such a text, image or a video. Can either be manual assets provided by advertisers or automatic assets pulled by UAC from either App / Play store. Definitions
  48. Proprietary + Confidential Shifting to an Asset Mindset in UAC

    Serve via ad formats depending on network and inventory across all Google properties AdMob Interstitial AdMob Square AdMob Banner YouTube Native Mobile Web AdMob (all sizes) AdMob GIF YouTube TrueView AdMob Rewarded AdMob Native AdMob Portrait AdMob Square AdMob Landscape Mobile Web Text Input (Asset) Output (Ad Format) Play Homepage Play Browse Play Search Search Ads YouTube Native Gmail App Install AdMob (all sizes) Video Image HTML5
  49. Proprietary + Confidential Maximize inventory and user reach via creative

    asset mix 4 text ideas 20 videos 20 images 20 html5
  50. Proprietary + Confidential Maximize inventory and user reach via creative

    asset mix 4 text ideas Text lines in different order can appear as a separate ad, or they can combine with videos. As for images, the text lines can be matched only with landscape image (1200x628). Write standalone sentences in text lines because the system will automatically combine these to create the best text ad.
  51. Proprietary + Confidential Maximize inventory and user reach via creative

    asset mix 20 images 320x50, 300x250, 320x480, 300x50, 728x90 (leaderboard), 480x320, 480x32, 320x100, 1024x768, 1200x628 (landscape image - recommended) - cover over 95% of AdMob inventory. Upload high quality (72dpi) images and HD ads (e.g. upload 640x100 for 320x50).
  52. Proprietary + Confidential Maximize inventory and user reach via creative

    asset mix 20 html5 Recommended sizes (your assets will appear as full screen ads on the majority of devices): 320x480 (portrait) 480x320 (landscape) Mobile only (no Tablets) No audio / video media support Having a persistent “install now” button throughout is mandatory.
  53. Proprietary + Confidential Maximize inventory and user reach via creative

    asset mix 20 videos We recommend to upload different versions of multiple assets across the top 3 recommended ratios. I.e. 10 landscape videos, 5 portrait and 5 square videos with different messages. YouTube is optimized for all video types. 70% of AdMob impressions are portrait.
  54. Proprietary + Confidential Google and Unity partner to boost mobile

    game advertising August 2018
  55. Proprietary + Confidential This deal offers a significant expansion of

    Google Rewarded Video Supply at scale.
  56. Proprietary + Confidential UAC Betas

  57. Proprietary + Confidential UAC Betas UAC Value Offers the possibility

    to tap into value based optimization and to acquire new users who are likely to have a set return within their selected conversion window, either based on: • Dynamic transactions • Or user centric dynamic pLTV via s2s
  58. Proprietary + Confidential UAC Betas UAC Value Offers the possibility

    to tap into value based optimization and to acquire new users who are likely to have a set return within their selected conversion window, either based on: Similar Audience Device IDs as hints. ‘Feed’ UAC with additional ‘user’ information it currently does not have, but advertisers can provide. • Dynamic transactions • Or user centric dynamic pLTV via s2s
  59. Proprietary + Confidential UAC Betas UAC Value Offers the possibility

    to tap into value based optimization and to acquire new users who are likely to have a set return within their selected conversion window, either based on: Similar Audience Device IDs as hints. ‘Feed’ UAC with additional ‘user’ information it currently does not have, but advertisers can provide. UACe UAC for Engagement is a dedicated, automated, cross-channel (Search, Play, Display, YouTube) campaign driving users back into the app to complete a specific action/conversion. • Dynamic transactions • Or user centric dynamic pLTV via s2s
  60. Proprietary + Confidential Revolutionize your strategy with Machine Learning

  61. Proprietary + Confidential UAC Inventory 4.4

  62. Proprietary + Confidential Solution!

  63. Proprietary + Confidential Con s o . Now.

  64. Proprietary + Confidential All Leads Clicks, app installs Buyers Top

    LTV users Low v i n ra . (Aut -bi w b o ) Lon n si de . (on f t ~7 da c ) Hin : Ret e s se ‘Pro t Ca t’ in d
  65. Proprietary + Confidential All Leads Clicks, app installs We s

    n of n o v on to A W or s at w si s n e t n u r Potential buyers Actual buyers
  66. Proprietary + Confidential Queries Placements Demo Targeting Device Targeting Granular

    Location App Usage Value Session duration Usage App Settings Retention Referrals
  67. Proprietary + Confidential • • • •

  68. Proprietary + Confidential 66% lower cost 48% lower cost ACTUAL

    PREDICTED VS
  69. Proprietary + Confidential App installs pBuyers (potential) Buyers (actual) pBu

    c er s a 10x hi r ve n a in tu $ t a n l pBu c er s e r to A W 3.5x so t a c a p h e pBu s ca r 80% of f u p ha s
  70. Proprietary + Confidential DATASET!!!111

  71. Proprietary + Confidential FEATURE TYPES: FEATURES: EXPLANATION: Required user_id Hashed

    IDFA / Web_id of install / login_id as GA dimension age Number of days since install the data below is gathered for Numeric (0,1,2..) sessions Number of sessions by a certain day player_level in-game level reached (0+) battles Total In-game battles played messages Total in-app messages sent ... ... Binary (0 or 1) facebook_login Did the player use their facebook account for the app login? promo_used Did the player use any promo codes ... ... Categorical (A,B,C.) device User's device model, i.e. “Xiaomi” country User's location, i.e. “UK” ... ...
  72. Proprietary + Confidential Recommendations • Dataset and initial data-structure!

  73. Proprietary + Confidential Recommendations • Dataset and initial data-structure! •

    Start with simple (e.g. linear regression)
  74. Proprietary + Confidential Recommendations • Dataset and initial data-structure! •

    Start with simple (e.g. linear regression) • Collect features as much as you could. 10-20? 200-400-1000! ◦ Firebase, BigQuery, ClickHouse - some solutions to use
  75. Proprietary + Confidential Recommendations • Dataset and initial data-structure! •

    Start with simple (e.g. linear regression) • Collect features as much as you could. 10-20? 200-400-1000! ◦ Firebase, BigQuery, ClickHouse - some solutions to use • Save historical data (no re-writings)
  76. Proprietary + Confidential Recommendations • Dataset and initial data-structure! •

    Start with simple (e.g. linear regression) • Collect features as much as you could. 10-20? 200-400-1000! ◦ Firebase, BigQuery, ClickHouse - some solutions to use • Save historical data (no re-writings) • Define model quality metrics ◦ Precision / Recall ratio ◦ F1 score, Accuracy
  77. Proprietary + Confidential Recommendations • Dataset and initial data-structure! •

    Start with simple (e.g. linear regression) • Collect features as much as you could. 10-20? 200-400-1000! ◦ Firebase, BigQuery, ClickHouse - some solutions to use • Save historical data (no re-writings) • Define model quality metrics ◦ Precision / Recall ratio ◦ F1 score, Accuracy • Revise your model regularly
  78. Proprietary + Confidential Firebase ML Kit

  79. Proprietary + Confidential Thank you! Olesya Kozlovskaya | Analytical Consultant,

    Gaming Arseniy Alikhanov | Analytical Consultant, Gaming