Cognitive Biases

Thirteenth slideshow for a course on science.

Transcript

1. Cognitive Illusions how we know what isn’t so George Matthews CC 2017
2. Question of the day
3. Question of the day Are humans rational?
4. How does the mind work? get sensory inputs identify situation recall goals compare goals and situation figure out how to reduce gap execute actions cognition respond the common sense model
5. How the mind really works . . . Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
6. How the mind really works . . . system 1 everything’s normal Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
7. How the mind really works . . . system 1 everything’s normal jump to conclusions create storyline go with the flow things make sense Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
8. How the mind really works . . . system 1 everything’s normal jump to conclusions create storyline go with the flow things make sense business as usual Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
9. How the mind really works . . . system 1 everything’s normal jump to conclusions create storyline go with the flow things make sense business as usual system 2 pay attention! WTF! Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
10. How the mind really works . . . system 1 everything’s normal jump to conclusions create storyline go with the flow things make sense business as usual system 2 pay attention! WTF! look closely calculate carefully check for mistakes make plans Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
11. How the mind really works . . . system 1 everything’s normal jump to conclusions create storyline go with the flow things make sense business as usual system 2 pay attention! WTF! look closely calculate carefully check for mistakes make plans deliberate action Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
12. How the mind really works . . . system 1 everything’s normal jump to conclusions create storyline go with the flow things make sense business as usual system 2 pay attention! WTF! look closely calculate carefully check for mistakes make plans deliberate action I’m tired. Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
14. bananas vomit
15. system 1 at work
16. system 1 at work ! involuntary bodily and emotional responses
17. system 1 at work ! involuntary bodily and emotional responses ! assumptions
18. system 1 at work ! involuntary bodily and emotional responses ! assumptions temporal sequence
19. system 1 at work ! involuntary bodily and emotional responses ! assumptions temporal sequence causal connection
20. system 1 at work ! involuntary bodily and emotional responses ! assumptions temporal sequence causal connection ! expectation formation
21. system 1 at work ! involuntary bodily and emotional responses ! assumptions temporal sequence causal connection ! expectation formation ! coherent storyline generation
24. A simple test.
26. WASH
28. EAT
30. SO_P
31. Common cognitive biases
32. Common cognitive biases ! Priming/Anchoring: “I’ve heard it before, it must be true!”
33. Common cognitive biases ! Priming/Anchoring: “I’ve heard it before, it must be true!” ! Familiarity effect: “The more I see of Donald Trump, the more I like him!”
34. Common cognitive biases ! Priming/Anchoring: “I’ve heard it before, it must be true!” ! Familiarity effect: “The more I see of Donald Trump, the more I like him!” ! Dramatic instances effect/neglect of probability: “I’ll pay more for insurance against death by terrorism than against death in general.”
35. Common cognitive biases ! Priming/Anchoring: “I’ve heard it before, it must be true!” ! Familiarity effect: “The more I see of Donald Trump, the more I like him!” ! Dramatic instances effect/neglect of probability: “I’ll pay more for insurance against death by terrorism than against death in general.” ! Confirmation bias: “I keep seeing confirmation of my beliefs!”
36. Common cognitive biases ! Priming/Anchoring: “I’ve heard it before, it must be true!” ! Familiarity effect: “The more I see of Donald Trump, the more I like him!” ! Dramatic instances effect/neglect of probability: “I’ll pay more for insurance against death by terrorism than against death in general.” ! Confirmation bias: “I keep seeing confirmation of my beliefs!” ! In-group bias: “Everyone I know thinks like I do.”
37. Common cognitive biases ! Priming/Anchoring: “I’ve heard it before, it must be true!” ! Familiarity effect: “The more I see of Donald Trump, the more I like him!” ! Dramatic instances effect/neglect of probability: “I’ll pay more for insurance against death by terrorism than against death in general.” ! Confirmation bias: “I keep seeing confirmation of my beliefs!” ! In-group bias: “Everyone I know thinks like I do.” ! Status quo bias: “Yes the incumbent is a criminal, but he is a familiar criminal.”
38. Which do you prefer?
39. Which do you prefer? A. $ 10 now B. $ 11 tommorrow
40. Which do you prefer? A. $ 10 next Thursday B. $ 11 next Friday