Webinar Covid-19 Forecasts - Feb. 2021 - iCopilots

The slides for my February 2021 webinar for KEDGE EMBA alumni, on how to project the outputs of the covid crisis for different markets and a discussion on how to do "Systemic Bottleneck Analysis".

More on this at https://www.icopilots.com/innovation-radar/covid-19-crisis-pestel-predictions-part-2-19737

Transcript

1. © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Covid-19, Who’s going to recover, profit or disappear? Philippe MÉDA www.icopilots.com Feb.4th, 2021 Innovation Copilots
2. © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Plan for major disruption until at least mid-2021. There will be no magical return to normal in a few weeks (maybe September). Past the medical crisis, the global negative ripple effects will be long-lasting.
3. © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. This crisis is a network effect crisis. Because of its connectedness and exponential nature, it can’t be solved by a simple remedy but requires a cocktail of adjustments. This is a core difficulty for large corps. There is no silver bullet.
4. © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Since March 2020, innovation is the core business of anyone aiming for long-term survival. High uncertainties require a specific mindset: - Seeking multiple ROIs around key sunk costs. - Shifting from pipelines and linear roadmaps to portfolios of projects and divergent explorations. - Enforcing optionality instead of ‘big projects’ and ‘big visions’.
5. © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Part 1. Predictions don’t work
6. Part 1. Predictions Don’t Work © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Prediction-making is not very sophisticated... and it’s on you!
7. Part 1. Predictions Don’t Work © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. In the early 1980s, AT&T asked McKinsey to estimate how many cell phones would be in use in the world at the turn of the century. They concluded that the total Market would be 900,000 units. This persuaded AT&T to pull out of the market. By 2000, there were 738 million people with cellphone subscriptions. Andrew CHEN “
8. Part 1. Predictions Don’t Work © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. LINEAR TIMES R&D Pipeline Business plans Prototypes Open innovation Startup studios Stop-gate innovation Design thinking Market surveys 2030 Strategic plan <— What you are used to
9. Part 1. Predictions Don’t Work © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Now 6m 24m 12m 18m 36m ! " # Current trend Predict inflection Brighter future! Back to normal The same story over and over again...
10. Part 1. Predictions Don’t Work © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Now 6m 24m 12m 18m 36m But the underlying uncertainty compounds! The same story over and over again... © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved.
11. Part 1. Predictions Don’t Work © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Now 6m 12m 18m 24m 36m 24m 36m But the underlying uncertainty compounds! The same story over and over again... © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved.
12. Part 1. Predictions Don’t Work © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. And by the way... NO ONE EVER! Now 6m 12m 18m 36m 24m But the underlying uncertainty compounds! The same story over and over again... © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved.
13. Part 1. Predictions Don’t Work © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. LINEAR TIMES R&D Pipeline Business plans Prototypes Open innovation Startup studios Stop-gate innovation Design thinking Market surveys 2030 Strategic plan Toto, I have a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore…
14. Part 1. Predictions Don’t Work © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. LINEAR TIMES NON-LINEAR TIMES Chunking 2nd Order of consequences Pattern analysis Bottleneck analysis Retrograde analysis Stepping-stone planning Scouting scenarios Risk portfolio Optionality R&D Pipeline Business plans Prototypes Open innovation Startup studios Stop-gate innovation Design thinking Market surveys 2030 Strategic plan
15. Part 1. Predictions Don’t Work © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. LINEAR TIMES NON-LINEAR TIMES Chunking 2nd Order of consequences Pattern analysis Bottleneck analysis Retrograde analysis Stepping-stone planning Scouting scenarios Risk portfolio Optionality R&D Pipeline Business plans Prototypes Open innovation Startup studios Stop-gate innovation Design thinking Market surveys 2030 Strategic plan <- Today
16. © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Part 2. Systemic Bottleneck Analysis
17. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Even in highly chaotic periods, there are only but a few systemic bottlenecks that will shape the future.
18. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved.
19. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. What is a systemic bottleneck and why should you care? - Has a long lead time (>3-5 years) - Locks or unlocks an industry (A or B) - Output will impose 10 year directionality
20. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Seeing Bottlenecks Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved.
21. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Seeing Bottlenecks ☑ Norms and legislations
22. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Seeing Bottlenecks ☑ Norms and legislations
23. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Seeing Bottlenecks ☑ Norms and legislations ☑ Recovery plans
24. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Seeing Bottlenecks ☑ Norms and legislations ☑ Recovery plans ☑ Macro infrastructures
25. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Seeing Bottlenecks ☑ Norms and legislations ☑ Recovery plans ☑ Macro infrastructures This was 2018!
26. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Seeing Bottlenecks ☑ Norms and legislations ☑ Recovery plans ☑ Macro infrastructures $900B ->
27. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Seeing Bottlenecks ☑ Norms and legislations ☑ Recovery plans ☑ Macro infrastructures ☑ New platforms Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved.
28. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. How to use a systemic bottleneck? - Remove background noise - Follow the build up - Estimate unlocking time - Map directional outputs - Be a smart-ass and predict 2nd order of consequences (*) (*) Optional
29. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Key idea: Don’t resolve complexity, adjust to it ahead of time.
30. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. 24m ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) What we know Now Bottleneck
31. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. 24m ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) Scout 36m Predictions Forecast Build-up What we know Now Bottleneck
32. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. 30m Predictions 18m ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) Build-up What we know Now Scout Forecast Bottleneck
33. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. 12m Build-up What we know Now ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) Predictions 24m Scout Forecast Bottleneck ( Noise )
34. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. 6m Build-up What we know ( Noise ) ( Noise ) ( Noise ) 18m Predictions Now Scout Forecast Bottleneck
35. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Now What we know Bottleneck 12m Predictions ( Adjust )
36. Part 2. Bottleneck Analysis © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. The reason why you feel innovation is suddenly happening so fast, is that you didn’t pay attention to the underlying systemic bottlenecks that were building up for many years.
37. © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Part 3. Market Predictions
38. Part 3. Predictions! © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Bottleneck #1 Tech platforms reach market saturation. Technical / Political
39. Part 3. Predictions! © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. G_FAM posing as utilities and doubling down on surveillance economy. Bottleneck #1 Tech platforms reach market saturation. © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved.
40. Part 3. Predictions! © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. A new multilateral digital cold war with EU as one of the central battlefield. Bottleneck #1 Tech platforms reach market saturation. © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved.
41. Part 3. Predictions! © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Bottleneck #1 Tech platforms reach market saturation. New national data laws, pushing against US data policies.
42. Part 3. Predictions! © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. An hyper- regionalisation of digital markets. Bottleneck #1 Tech platforms reach market saturation.
43. Part 3. Predictions! © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. 18m Now Bottleneck Bottleneck #1 Tech platforms reach market saturation. G_FAM posing as utilities and doubling down on surveillance economy. New multilateral digital cold war with EU as one of the central battlefield. New national data laws pushing abasing US policies. Hyper- regionalisation of digital markets. Scouting the build-up
44. Part 3. Predictions! © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. 18m Now Bottleneck Bottleneck #1 Tech platforms reach market saturation. G_FAM posing as utilities and doubling down on surveillance economy. New multilateral digital cold war with EU as one of the central battlefield. New national data laws pushing abasing US policies. Hyper- regionalisation of digital markets. Scouting the build-up 1 2 3 4 5 Winners / Losers Predictions Apple, Starbucks and LVMH moving to tier 4 cities in China. The decline of flagship stores vs. DTM online platforms. Europe starts to piece together a great data firewall, crashing G and F valuations. The end of the 1 Brand -> Multichannel marketing paradigm. Apple making different regional versions of the iPhone 14.
45. Part 3. Predictions! © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Bottleneck #2 Covid-19 is the new normal Political / Societal
46. Bottleneck #2 Covid-19 new normal © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Multinationals unload real- estate footprint and push HR relocation packages. San Francisco’s 35% plunge in rents Bottleneck #2 Covid-19 new normal © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved.
47. Bottleneck #2 Covid-19 new normal © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Virus Controls Put Damper on China’s Holidays, Economic Recovery Bloomberg Economics China’s efforts to control the recent resurgence of Covid-19 are undercutting a recovery which has been one of the bright spots in the global economy. (…) Activity usually slows ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday which begins next week, but curbs on travel this year to try and stop the spread of the coronavirus mean many people won’t be able to return to their hometowns. That will limit spending on travel, restaurants and gifts, but could lead to an increase in industrial output as some companies look to work through the holidays to keep up with demand. The slowdown was sharper in services than manufacturing, reflecting a heavier impact of the winter surge in virus cases and increase in containment measures on consumption than production. China big push in services. Bottleneck #2 Covid-19 new normal © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved.
48. Bottleneck #2 Covid-19 new normal © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Amazon, Alibaba deploy medical IT cloud infrastructures. © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved.
49. Bottleneck #2 Covid-19 new normal © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Travel bubbles, health passports and safe zones on the rise. Bottleneck #2 Covid-19 new normal © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved.
50. Bottleneck #2 Covid-19 new normal © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. 12m Now Bottleneck Multinationals unload real-estate footprint and push HR relocation packages. China big push in services. Amazon, Alibaba deploy medical IT cloud infrastructures. Travel bubbles, health passports and safe zones on the rise. Scouting the build-up
51. Bottleneck #2 Covid-19 new normal © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. 12m Now Bottleneck Multinationals unload real-estate footprint and push HR relocation packages. China big push in services. Amazon, Alibaba deploy medical IT cloud infrastructures. Travel bubbles, health passports and safe zones on the rise. Scouting the build-up 1 2 3 4 5 Winners / Losers Predictions AirBnB pivots to coworking before 2022, stabilises real- estate in Barcelona & Amsterdam (not Paris nor London). Singapore airport and few other hubs recoup spectacularly fast! Rise of DTM micro-brands sapping non-platform market leaders (Nike, L’Oréal). 1/2 medical consultation is remote by 2025 in China and US, and 1/5 in EU. Big pharmas invest in supply chain verticalization.
52. Part 3. Predictions! © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Bottleneck #3 The rise of hardware platforms Technical / Economical
53. Bottleneck #3 Hardware platforms © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. NVDIA AMD INTEL Software ate the world, now hardware is eating software…
54. Bottleneck #3 Hardware platforms © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. G.M. Announcement Shakes Up U.S. Automakers’ Transition to Electric Cars. How Volkswagen’s $50 Billion Plan to Beat Tesla Short-Circuited. Automakers are a burning platform.
55. Bottleneck #3 Hardware platforms © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Real estate is a burning platform.
56. Bottleneck #3 Hardware platforms © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Agriculture is a burning platform. Netherlands (17.5m) is the 2nd largest food exporter in the world
57. Bottleneck #2 Covid-19 new normal © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. 36m Now Bottleneck Software ate the world, now hardware is eating software… Automakers are a burning platform. Real estate is a burning platform. Agriculture is a burning platform. Scouting the build-up
58. Bottleneck #2 Covid-19 new normal © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. 36m Now Bottleneck Software ate the world, now hardware is eating software… Automakers are a burning platform. Real estate is a burning platform. Agriculture is a burning platform. Scouting the build-up 1 2 3 4 5 Winners / Losers Predictions Explosive rise of new EVs for last-mile deliveries. Smart City is out, Smart Supply Chain is in. Baidu takes minority stake in VW, other EU manufacturers try to deal with US platforms in 2022. Tech platforms push even more in home automation, expand in construction infrastructure, by 2023 Agritech becomes part of the new digital cold war.
59. Part 3. Predictions! © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. In high uncertainty, 80% of the total Innovation ROI is Scouting ROI The ROI of “smart” predictions is not to predict where the next big thing will be. No one can. It’s about having enough options to have a head-start no matter what happens.
60. Part 3. Predictions! © 2021, Innovation Copilots B.V. - All rights reserved. Predictions in uncertain times are critical, not because we can see the future but because we can’t. Q&A?