Facts over Opinions - How data beats gut feeling (May 2019)

How does your product owner or team make decisions? How is the backlog or roadmap planned? Was your last improvement successful? Many teams rely only on their gut feeling and estimates in story points. Data from existing sources such as JIRA, ticket systems and CI/CD tools are waiting to be evaluated. In this session, I will introduce metrics and KPIs from Agile, Lean and DevOps, and we’ll focus on learning the Build-Measure-Learn Loop. We’ll look at digital and physical methods and tools that incorporate the data into processes and daily work. Using examples and diagrams, I’ll show how this data can be used for more realistic planning and forecasting – and how this data can help the team improve itself.

Transcript

1. GLOBAL SOFTWARE CONSULTANCY
2. That’s me Combining data and empathy for best results. Enabling products to create sustainable value. Hamburger. Loves pancakes. GLOBAL SOFTWARE CONSULTANCY
3. #NOESTIMATES
6. “Nobody noticed. Five Story Points… for years. I've never estimated anything else.”
10. Median Mean 99% Percentile SUM 9.74 15.71 112.65 One single misbehaving task
14. What data tells us that we deliver value and perform? ID Type Other Properties Task Devs estimate in T-Shirt sizes Estimate Daily-based Status changes Start & Completed Date
15. S 3 4 53 days 1 41 M L
16. What happens now if we merge with another team?
19. Only a temporary boost
20. Overarching WIP limit More involvement of tech in analysis and signoff Keep Arrival Rate == Departure Rate stable
21. DISCIPLINE Quality, Cycle Time, Throughput, Predictability Precision, Completeness, Accuracy, Uniqueness, Consistency, and Conformity. Um eine konstruktive Diskussion zu haben, muss jeder die Daten verstehen können. You Must Be This Tall To Use Agile Metrics by Jacob Bo Tiedemann
22. “You get what you measure. Metrics will affect actions and decisions. They can be counterproductive and fail when metrics are not balanced or are ill-considered”
23. By Troy Magennis, focusedobjective
24. Tasks in Backlog Split Rate Arrival Rate WIP
25. “Remember, with great power comes great responsibility.”
26. RESPONSIBILITY
27. S 3 4 53 days 1 41 M L
32. Simulation > 10000 times
33. UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS OPTIONS RISKS AND PROBABILITIES TEST YOUR MODEL
34. → • • • •
36. Safe & Sound Optimistic Risky
37. and actionable with management or stakeholders within in the team in retrospectives Use for discussions Use percentiles to prioritize and plan ahead. Add the forecast to your Burnup chart. Use it for your roadmap Run the forecast on a weekly basis and check if your roadmap holds up ! BELOW 70% ! TAKE ACTION Alerting
40. METRICS AND FORECASTS Collect data with discipline Get the data quality up Collect minimum data by hand Get the team on board Team Dashboard Excel by Troy Magennis Monte Carlo Simulation Notebook By Jacob Bo Tiedemann Use free Excel sheets & Jupyter Notebooks Downloadable Package by Matt Philipp Play the #NoEstimates Game
41. JACOB BO TIEDEMANN SENIOR CONSULTANT BUSINESS ANALYST @jabopiti | jacobbo.tiedemann@thoughtworks.com | thoughtworks.com
43. “Any instinctual exercise is subject to any number of cognitive biases.” - Dan North, Your judgments are influenced by what springs most easily to mind. Availability Heuristic The first thing you judge influences your judgment of all that follows. Anchoring You allow yourself to be unduly influenced by context and delivery. Framing Effect
44. If WIP increases faster than Throughput, then Cycle Times will only increase.