ICU 155 Teleconference Support Material

Preliminary support material for the ICU issue 155 teleconference, to take place at 11:30 AM the 2nd of August (New Zealand time)

Transcript

1. Island  Climate  Update  155   Forecast  period:   August  –  October  2013   Teleconference  Friday  2nd  of  August  2013     (11:30  AM  NZ  Ame)   2/08/13   1  
2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecAon,  circulaAon  and  SST  anomalies   last  month  (July  2013)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaAon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaAon  (MJO)  diagnosAcs  and  forecasts     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     2/08/13   2   Outline    
3. 1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec;on)  and  SST  in  the  SW  Pacific   2/08/13   3  
4. Rainfall  anomalies  and  averages    (TRMM)     2/08/13   4  
5. Rainfall  anomalies  and  averages    (TRMM)     2/08/13   5  
6. 2/08/13   6   •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)   Experimental  product  
7. 2/08/13   7   Circula;on  anomalies:  Geopoten;al  at  1000hPa  and  wind   NCEP  /  DOE  to  the  29th  of  July  
8. SST  anomalies  June  2013   SST  anomalies  July  2013   2/08/13   8  
9. 2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa;on  and  forecast     2/08/13   9  
10. SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   2/08/13   Datasource  =  BoM  (h_p://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   10  
11. The  ENSO  Precipita;on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days  (31st  July)  is  -­‐2.93   SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES   2/08/13   h_p://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html   11   NIWA  SOI  esAmate  for  July  =  +0.7  
12. Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   2/08/13   12  
13. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  and  heat  content  anomalies     2/08/13   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13   h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml  
14. ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       2/08/13   14  
15. 3)  MJO  diagnos;cs  and  forecasts     2/08/13   15  
16. Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  Monitoring  (BoM)   2/08/13   h_p://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/  or  h_p://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/     16  
17. Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  Dynamical  Forecast  (CPC)   2/08/13   h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     17  
18. 5)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts   2/08/13   18  
19. 2/08/13   19   JAS  2013   ASO  2013  
20. 2/08/13   20   METPI  rainfall  results   !!!!  PRELIMINARY  !!!   August – October 2013 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Fiji 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Niue 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Papua New Guinea 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Tonga 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Austral Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Cook Islands (Southern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High New Caledonia 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Samoa 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Society Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Solomon Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Tokelau 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tuamotu Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Vanuatu 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Wallis & Futuna 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Cook Islands (Northern) 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Tuvalu 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High FSM 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Kiribati (Western) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Marquesas 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Kiribati (Eastern) 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is an overall assessment of the expected rainfall relative to normal for the time of year. The final column is an indication of the confidence in the forecast, and is determined by how well individual models (shown in the next table) agree. Island groups listed above are ranked from above to
21. 2/08/13   21   METPI  rainfall  results   !!!!  PRELIMINARY  !!!  
22. 6)  METPI  SST  forecasts   2/08/13   22  
23. 2/08/13   23   JAS  2013   SST  anomalies  June  2013   ASO  2013   Hasn’t  been  updated  
24. 2/08/13   24   METPI  SST  results   !!!!  PRELIMINARY  !!!