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Vanuatu OCOF material

Avatar for Nicolas Fauchereau Nicolas Fauchereau
September 18, 2013
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Vanuatu OCOF material

Some diagnostics and forecasts put together in the context of recent rainfall deficits in Vanuatu.

Avatar for Nicolas Fauchereau

Nicolas Fauchereau

September 18, 2013
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Transcript

  1. OCOF  Vanuatu     Some  diagnos2cs  and  forecasts   August

     19,  2013  

  2. •  Rainfall  (climatology  +  recent  anomalies)   •  Circula2on  (recent

     anomalies)   •  ENSO  situa2on  at  present   •  MJO  (recent  and  next  couple  of  weeks)   •  Mid-­‐term  (1  month)  forecasts:  October  2013     •  Seasonal  (3  months)  forecasts:  October  to  November  2013   Outline  

  3. Climatology  (SW  Pac.)  

  4. Vanuatu  (Regional)   LAMAP  rainfall   Climatology  (Vanuatu)  

  5. Vanuatu  anomalies  from  TRMM  

  6. Circula2on  anomalies  from  NCEP  

  7. ENSO  situa2on  at  present  

  8. None

  9. MJO  (recent  and  2  weeks  forecasts)  

  10. MJO  (recent  and  2  weeks  forecasts)  

  11. BoM:  POAMA   GEOS  5  (October)   NCEP  CFS  V2

      1  month  forecasts      

  12. 3  months  forecasts  (September  –  November)       Sintex

     F1   IRI  /  CPC   GMAO  /  NSIPP   NCEP  /  CFS  V2  

  13. 3  months  forecasts  (September  –  November)       UKMO