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Vanuatu OCOF material
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Nicolas Fauchereau
September 18, 2013
Science
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55
Vanuatu OCOF material
Some diagnostics and forecasts put together in the context of recent rainfall deficits in Vanuatu.
Nicolas Fauchereau
September 18, 2013
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Transcript
OCOF Vanuatu Some diagnos2cs and forecasts August
19, 2013
• Rainfall (climatology + recent anomalies) • Circula2on (recent
anomalies) • ENSO situa2on at present • MJO (recent and next couple of weeks) • Mid-‐term (1 month) forecasts: October 2013 • Seasonal (3 months) forecasts: October to November 2013 Outline
Climatology (SW Pac.)
Vanuatu (Regional) LAMAP rainfall Climatology (Vanuatu)
Vanuatu anomalies from TRMM
Circula2on anomalies from NCEP
ENSO situa2on at present
None
MJO (recent and 2 weeks forecasts)
MJO (recent and 2 weeks forecasts)
BoM: POAMA GEOS 5 (October) NCEP CFS V2
1 month forecasts
3 months forecasts (September – November) Sintex
F1 IRI / CPC GMAO / NSIPP NCEP / CFS V2
3 months forecasts (September – November) UKMO