Kickstarter by the Numbers

Presented at CodeStock 2013

Transcript

1. Michael C. Neel
2. What is Crowdfunding?
3. What Crowdfunding is not
4. Why Kickstarter?
5. Video Short Desc Long Desc Rewards Bio Title FAQ Risks
6. Kickstarter Stats
7. Kickstarter Stats
8. Kickstarter Stats
9. We Must Go Deeper…
10. Mike vs Kickstarter - Success Total $1,000 Raised $1,000 to $9,999 $10,000 to $19,999 $20,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $999,999 $1,000,000+ Art -0.4% -0.6% -0.3% -1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Comics -0.6% -0.6% -0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Dance -0.2% -1.3% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Design -0.8% 0.0% -1.1% -1.1% -0.5% -0.8% 0.0% Fashion -0.7% -2.1% -0.2% -0.8% -2.1% 0.0% 0.0% Film & Video -0.8% -1.1% -0.9% -0.3% -0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Food -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Games -1.2% -2.1% -1.4% -1.0% -0.5% -2.2% 0.0% Music -0.3% -0.5% -0.3% -0.3% -0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Photography -0.2% 0.0% -0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Publishing -0.5% -0.2% -0.4% -1.1% -1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Technology -0.3% 0.0% -0.4% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% 0.0% Theater -0.4% -0.3% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Total -0.5% -0.6% -0.5% -0.5% -0.6% -0.9% 0.0%
11. Mike vs Kickstarter - Failed Total 0% 1% to 20% 21% to 40% 41% to 60% 61% to 80% 81% to 99% Art -3.8% -15.1% 0.3% -4.7% -3.7% 0.0% -26.7% Comics -1.6% -13.9% 2.2% -7.1% 0.0% -7.1% 0.0% Dance -2.5% -13.4% 1.0% 0.0% -3.2% -16.7% 0.0% Design -1.8% -20.6% 1.1% -3.9% -3.8% 0.0% -3.7% Fashion -3.8% -14.4% 0.4% -6.7% -6.5% 0.0% -6.3% Film & Video -4.9% -17.2% -0.5% -4.8% -5.2% -4.9% -13.8% Food -1.9% -17.9% 0.6% -2.9% -9.2% 0.0% -14.3% Games -1.7% -20.8% 0.9% -2.5% -3.0% -11.3% -9.1% Music -5.1% -16.3% -0.9% -2.2% -6.8% -5.3% -9.8% Photography -3.5% -16.3% 1.7% -6.0% -1.3% -10.0% -18.2% Publishing -4.1% -14.1% -0.3% -4.5% -2.3% -6.1% -12.1% Technology -3.0% -23.4% 0.3% 0.0% -2.9% -18.2% -15.8% Theater -3.3% -12.3% 0.1% -4.2% -6.4% 0.0% -8.3% Total -4.0% -16.2% 0.0% -4.0% -4.6% -4.9% -12.3%
12. Mike vs Kickstarter - Failed Total 01% to 20% 21% to 40% 41% to 60% 61% to 80% 81% to 99% Art -164 -130 9 -27 -8 0 -8 Comics -20 -21 17 -14 0 -2 0 Dance -9 -9 2 0 -1 -1 0 Design -41 -35 16 -15 -6 0 -1 Fashion -84 -65 5 -19 -4 0 -1 Film & Video -722 -558 -50 -71 -26 -8 -9 Food -38 -28 8 -7 -10 0 -1 Games -55 -51 20 -9 -5 -7 -3 Music -483 -365 -49 -28 -30 -7 -4 Photography -65 -63 19 -15 -1 -3 -2 Publishing -297 -241 -12 -30 -6 -4 -4 Technology -40 -34 3 0 -2 -4 -3 Theater -52 -38 1 -9 -5 0 -1 Total -2070 -1638 -11 -244 -104 -36 -37
13. Mike vs Kickstarter 75000 76000 77000 78000 79000 80000 81000 82000 83000 84000 85000 40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 56% 58% 60% Sucessful Failed Total Kickstarter Mike
14. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2.7 7.2 12.5 16.5 21.5 26.9 30.4 36.3 41.1 45.6 51.3 57.3 60.2 66.6 71.5 76.5 81.9 88.1 90.3 Project Success Rate Vs. Project Length Cr -0.8443 R² 0.7128
15. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 3.5 7.1 12.6 16.1 21.4 27.0 30.3 36.0 41.0 45.4 51.7 56.9 60.1 66.2 71.0 76.4 83.0 87.9 90.2 Video Game Project Success Rate Vs. Project Length Cr -0.0832 R² 0.0069
16. Video Game Project Success Rates Do Not Show A Correlation To Project Length Length Takeaway:
17. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Project Success Rate Vs. Project Goal (Under $100,000) Cr -0.8725 R² 0.7612
18. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Video Game Project Success Rate Vs. Project Goal (Under $100,000) Cr -0.4618 R² 0.2132
19. Video Game Project Success Rates Show A Weak Correlation To Project Goal (when goal is less than $100,000) Goal Takeaway:
20. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Project Success Rate Vs. Number of Pledge Levels (Max 20) Cr 0.9509 R² 0.9043
21. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Video Game Project Success Rate Vs. Number of Pledge Levels (Max 20) Cr 0.9043 R² 0.8178
22. Video Game Project Success Rates Show A Strong Correlation To Number of Pledge Levels (up to 20 levels) Pledge Level Takeaway:
23. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Project Success Rate Vs. Project About Length (HTML, Max 20,000 Chars) Cr 0.3693 R² 0.1364
24. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Video Game Project Success Rate Vs. Project About Length (HTML, Max 20,000 Chars) Cr 0.6453 R² 0.4164
25. Video Game Project Success Rates Show A Moderate Correlation To Length of About HTML About Length Takeaway:
26. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 395 458 511 673 759 851 949 1,046 1,146 1,248 1,348 1,449 1,548 1,644 1,751 1,846 1,948 2,047 2,150 2,247 2,348 2,447 2,548 2,649 2,749 2,850 2,951 3,052 3,154 3,248 3,349 3,446 3,547 3,652 3,748 3,844 3,948 4,050 4,149 4,244 4,349 4,452 4,549 4,644 4,748 4,849 4,951 Project Success Rate Vs. Project FAQ Length (HTML, Max 1,000 Chars) Cr 0.4337 R² 0.1881
27. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 396 450 518 680 760 851 950 1,053 1,152 1,262 1,346 1,446 1,544 1,661 1,760 1,847 1,940 2,050 2,156 2,251 2,346 2,450 2,543 2,662 2,750 2,866 2,957 3,055 3,147 3,261 3,334 3,445 3,558 3,654 3,734 3,841 3,940 4,036 4,144 4,251 4,348 4,453 4,568 4,659 4,749 4,862 4,940 Video Game Project Success Rate Vs. Project FAQ Length (HTML, Max 1,000 Chars) Cr 0.5727 R² 0.3280
28. Video Game Project Success Rates Show A Moderate Correlation To Length of FAQ HTML FAQ Length Takeaway:
29. 0 300 600 900 1200 1500 1800 2100 2400 2700 3000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 20 Day Moving Average Success Rate Project Count Video Game Project Count All Projects Video Games
30. Because Mike Said So
31. What Games Are A Good Fit?  Desktop – No Mobile Only  Windows 1st / Mac, Linux Help  Not a “Simple Flash” Game  No Free-To-Play  Adventure / RPGs / Strategy  Kickstarter is Pre-Orders
32. Your Pitch Video, In Acts  Act 1 – The Trailer, Concept Pitch  Act 2 – Demo Gameplay  Act 3 – You and Your Story  Act 4 – What Kickstarter Funding Means for the Game  Act 5 – Stretch Goals and Rewards
33. You Are Not Tim Schafer
34. Short Description: Clear and Simple
35. Long Description  Start with expanded short description  List supported platforms / DRM early  Videos, Music, Concept Art  Pledge Reward Details  Stretch Goals  About Your Studio
36. FAQ  Reformatted Description  Platforms, DRM, Release Date  Reward Questions  Reward Shipping  System Requirements
37. Reward Levels  $71 is most popular pledge $50 for Video Games  $25 is most popular reward tier $15 for Video Games
38. Reward Ideas  Digital Copy - $10  “Special Edition” Digital Copy - $25  Making Of Content  Soundtrack  Name in Credits / Character in Game  Swag: T-Shirts, Stickers, Posters, Merch  $10,000 – Suit of Real Armor
39. Cost Breakdown - Rewards  Include reward costs in goal!  Calculate worst case: RC / RL x Goal = WC $25 / $50 x $1000 = $500  Consider reward limits  You will ship late
40. Cost Breakdown  The Banner Saga - $720k  10% - Kickstarter, Amazon, Failed Charges  $22K - Prizes  $22K - Shipping ($10 Intl. not enough)  Taxes - can be income but…  No Taxes until the game ships! http://www.guenthertax.com/blog/2012/05/no-kickstarter- project-should-pay-income-tax-in-their-first-year/
41. Pre Launch - Raising Awareness  Social Networks  Friends and Family  Your Mailing List  News Sites  Bloggers  Forums
42. Post Launch – Content Updates  Stretch Goals(?)  Post Project Coverage  Respond to Questions  Reddit AMA  Twitch.tv  Non-stop Self Promotion
43. Yay – You Made It!  Plan Regular Updates to Backers  Ship Physical Rewards Quickly  Only One Survey On Kickstarter  Point Backers to Steam Greenlight  Setup Pre-Order Page for Late Comers  The Double Dip?
44. Oh No, Project Failed  Figure out what went wrong  “Programmer Art”?  Not enough gameplay shown?  Bad pitch video?  Goal or Reward too high?  Try again!
45. Michael C. Neel Michael.neel@gmail.com Vinull.com @ViNull GameMarx.com FuncWorks.com