Kickstarter by the Numbers

Presented at CodeStock 2013

Transcript

1. Michael C. Neel
   

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2. What is Crowdfunding?
   

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3. What Crowdfunding is not
   

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4. Why Kickstarter?
   

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5. Video
   Short Desc
   Long Desc
   Rewards
   Bio
   Title
   FAQ
   Risks
   

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6. Kickstarter Stats
   

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7. Kickstarter Stats
   

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8. Kickstarter Stats
   

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9. We Must Go Deeper…
   

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10. Mike vs Kickstarter - Success
    Total $1,000 Raised $1,000 to $9,999 $10,000 to $19,999 $20,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $999,999 $1,000,000+
    Art -0.4% -0.6% -0.3% -1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    Comics -0.6% -0.6% -0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    Dance -0.2% -1.3% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    Design -0.8% 0.0% -1.1% -1.1% -0.5% -0.8% 0.0%
    Fashion -0.7% -2.1% -0.2% -0.8% -2.1% 0.0% 0.0%
    Film & Video -0.8% -1.1% -0.9% -0.3% -0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
    Food -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
    Games -1.2% -2.1% -1.4% -1.0% -0.5% -2.2% 0.0%
    Music -0.3% -0.5% -0.3% -0.3% -0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
    Photography -0.2% 0.0% -0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    Publishing -0.5% -0.2% -0.4% -1.1% -1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    Technology -0.3% 0.0% -0.4% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% 0.0%
    Theater -0.4% -0.3% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    Total -0.5% -0.6% -0.5% -0.5% -0.6% -0.9% 0.0%
    

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11. Mike vs Kickstarter - Failed
    Total 0% 1% to 20% 21% to 40% 41% to 60% 61% to 80% 81% to 99%
    Art -3.8% -15.1% 0.3% -4.7% -3.7% 0.0% -26.7%
    Comics -1.6% -13.9% 2.2% -7.1% 0.0% -7.1% 0.0%
    Dance -2.5% -13.4% 1.0% 0.0% -3.2% -16.7% 0.0%
    Design -1.8% -20.6% 1.1% -3.9% -3.8% 0.0% -3.7%
    Fashion -3.8% -14.4% 0.4% -6.7% -6.5% 0.0% -6.3%
    Film & Video -4.9% -17.2% -0.5% -4.8% -5.2% -4.9% -13.8%
    Food -1.9% -17.9% 0.6% -2.9% -9.2% 0.0% -14.3%
    Games -1.7% -20.8% 0.9% -2.5% -3.0% -11.3% -9.1%
    Music -5.1% -16.3% -0.9% -2.2% -6.8% -5.3% -9.8%
    Photography -3.5% -16.3% 1.7% -6.0% -1.3% -10.0% -18.2%
    Publishing -4.1% -14.1% -0.3% -4.5% -2.3% -6.1% -12.1%
    Technology -3.0% -23.4% 0.3% 0.0% -2.9% -18.2% -15.8%
    Theater -3.3% -12.3% 0.1% -4.2% -6.4% 0.0% -8.3%
    Total -4.0% -16.2% 0.0% -4.0% -4.6% -4.9% -12.3%
    

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12. Mike vs Kickstarter - Failed
    Total 01% to 20% 21% to 40% 41% to 60% 61% to 80% 81% to 99%
    Art -164 -130 9 -27 -8 0 -8
    Comics -20 -21 17 -14 0 -2 0
    Dance -9 -9 2 0 -1 -1 0
    Design -41 -35 16 -15 -6 0 -1
    Fashion -84 -65 5 -19 -4 0 -1
    Film & Video -722 -558 -50 -71 -26 -8 -9
    Food -38 -28 8 -7 -10 0 -1
    Games -55 -51 20 -9 -5 -7 -3
    Music -483 -365 -49 -28 -30 -7 -4
    Photography -65 -63 19 -15 -1 -3 -2
    Publishing -297 -241 -12 -30 -6 -4 -4
    Technology -40 -34 3 0 -2 -4 -3
    Theater -52 -38 1 -9 -5 0 -1
    Total -2070 -1638 -11 -244 -104 -36 -37
    

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13. Mike vs Kickstarter
    75000
    76000
    77000
    78000
    79000
    80000
    81000
    82000
    83000
    84000
    85000
    40%
    42%
    44%
    46%
    48%
    50%
    52%
    54%
    56%
    58%
    60%
    Sucessful Failed Total
    Kickstarter Mike
    

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14. 0
    1000
    2000
    3000
    4000
    5000
    6000
    7000
    8000
    9000
    10000
    0%
    10%
    20%
    30%
    40%
    50%
    60%
    70%
    80%
    90%
    100%
    2.7 7.2 12.5 16.5 21.5 26.9 30.4 36.3 41.1 45.6 51.3 57.3 60.2 66.6 71.5 76.5 81.9 88.1 90.3
    Project Success Rate Vs. Project Length
    Cr -0.8443
    R² 0.7128
    

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15. 0
    100
    200
    300
    400
    500
    600
    700
    800
    900
    1000
    0%
    10%
    20%
    30%
    40%
    50%
    60%
    70%
    80%
    90%
    100%
    3.5 7.1 12.6 16.1 21.4 27.0 30.3 36.0 41.0 45.4 51.7 56.9 60.1 66.2 71.0 76.4 83.0 87.9 90.2
    Video Game Project Success Rate Vs. Project Length
    Cr -0.0832
    R² 0.0069
    

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16. Video Game Project
    Success Rates Do Not
    Show A Correlation To
    Project Length
    Length Takeaway:
    

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17. 0
    1000
    2000
    3000
    4000
    5000
    6000
    7000
    8000
    9000
    10000
    0%
    10%
    20%
    30%
    40%
    50%
    60%
    70%
    80%
    90%
    100%
    Project Success Rate Vs. Project Goal (Under $100,000)
    Cr -0.8725
    R² 0.7612
    

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18. 0
    100
    200
    300
    400
    500
    600
    700
    800
    900
    1000
    0%
    10%
    20%
    30%
    40%
    50%
    60%
    70%
    80%
    90%
    100%
    Video Game Project Success Rate Vs. Project Goal (Under $100,000)
    Cr -0.4618
    R² 0.2132
    

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19. Video Game Project
    Success Rates Show A
    Weak Correlation To
    Project Goal (when goal
    is less than $100,000)
    Goal Takeaway:
    

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20. 0
    1000
    2000
    3000
    4000
    5000
    6000
    7000
    8000
    9000
    10000
    0%
    10%
    20%
    30%
    40%
    50%
    60%
    70%
    80%
    90%
    100%
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
    Project Success Rate Vs. Number of Pledge Levels (Max 20)
    Cr 0.9509
    R² 0.9043
    

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21. 0
    100
    200
    300
    400
    500
    600
    700
    800
    900
    1000
    0%
    10%
    20%
    30%
    40%
    50%
    60%
    70%
    80%
    90%
    100%
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
    Video Game Project Success Rate Vs. Number of Pledge Levels (Max 20)
    Cr 0.9043
    R² 0.8178
    

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22. Video Game Project
    Success Rates Show A
    Strong Correlation To
    Number of Pledge
    Levels (up to 20 levels)
    Pledge Level Takeaway:
    

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23. 0
    1000
    2000
    3000
    4000
    5000
    6000
    7000
    8000
    9000
    10000
    0%
    10%
    20%
    30%
    40%
    50%
    60%
    70%
    80%
    90%
    100%
    Project Success Rate Vs. Project About Length (HTML, Max 20,000 Chars)
    Cr 0.3693
    R² 0.1364
    

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24. 0
    100
    200
    300
    400
    500
    600
    700
    800
    900
    1000
    0%
    10%
    20%
    30%
    40%
    50%
    60%
    70%
    80%
    90%
    100%
    Video Game Project Success Rate Vs. Project About Length (HTML, Max 20,000 Chars)
    Cr 0.6453
    R² 0.4164
    

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25. Video Game Project
    Success Rates Show A
    Moderate Correlation To
    Length of About HTML
    About Length Takeaway:
    

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26. 0
    1000
    2000
    3000
    4000
    5000
    6000
    7000
    8000
    9000
    10000
    0%
    10%
    20%
    30%
    40%
    50%
    60%
    70%
    80%
    90%
    100%
    395
    458
    511
    673
    759
    851
    949
    1,046
    1,146
    1,248
    1,348
    1,449
    1,548
    1,644
    1,751
    1,846
    1,948
    2,047
    2,150
    2,247
    2,348
    2,447
    2,548
    2,649
    2,749
    2,850
    2,951
    3,052
    3,154
    3,248
    3,349
    3,446
    3,547
    3,652
    3,748
    3,844
    3,948
    4,050
    4,149
    4,244
    4,349
    4,452
    4,549
    4,644
    4,748
    4,849
    4,951
    Project Success Rate Vs. Project FAQ Length (HTML, Max 1,000 Chars)
    Cr 0.4337
    R² 0.1881
    

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27. 0
    100
    200
    300
    400
    500
    600
    700
    800
    900
    1000
    0%
    10%
    20%
    30%
    40%
    50%
    60%
    70%
    80%
    90%
    100%
    396
    450
    518
    680
    760
    851
    950
    1,053
    1,152
    1,262
    1,346
    1,446
    1,544
    1,661
    1,760
    1,847
    1,940
    2,050
    2,156
    2,251
    2,346
    2,450
    2,543
    2,662
    2,750
    2,866
    2,957
    3,055
    3,147
    3,261
    3,334
    3,445
    3,558
    3,654
    3,734
    3,841
    3,940
    4,036
    4,144
    4,251
    4,348
    4,453
    4,568
    4,659
    4,749
    4,862
    4,940
    Video Game Project Success Rate Vs. Project FAQ Length (HTML, Max 1,000 Chars)
    Cr 0.5727
    R² 0.3280
    

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28. Video Game Project
    Success Rates Show A
    Moderate Correlation To
    Length of FAQ HTML
    FAQ Length Takeaway:
    

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29. 0
    300
    600
    900
    1200
    1500
    1800
    2100
    2400
    2700
    3000
    0%
    10%
    20%
    30%
    40%
    50%
    60%
    70%
    80%
    90%
    100%
    20 Day Moving Average Success Rate
    Project Count Video Game Project Count All Projects Video Games
    

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30. Because Mike Said So
    

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31. What Games Are A Good Fit?
     Desktop – No Mobile Only
     Windows 1st / Mac, Linux Help
     Not a “Simple Flash” Game
     No Free-To-Play
     Adventure / RPGs / Strategy
     Kickstarter is Pre-Orders
    

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32. Your Pitch Video, In Acts
     Act 1 – The Trailer, Concept Pitch
     Act 2 – Demo Gameplay
     Act 3 – You and Your Story
     Act 4 – What Kickstarter Funding Means
    for the Game
     Act 5 – Stretch Goals and Rewards
    

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33. You Are Not Tim Schafer
    

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34. Short Description: Clear and Simple
    

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35. Long Description
     Start with expanded short description
     List supported platforms / DRM early
     Videos, Music, Concept Art
     Pledge Reward Details
     Stretch Goals
     About Your Studio
    

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36. FAQ
     Reformatted Description
     Platforms, DRM, Release Date
     Reward Questions
     Reward Shipping
     System Requirements
    

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37. Reward Levels
     $71 is most popular pledge
    $50 for Video Games
     $25 is most popular reward tier
    $15 for Video Games
    

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38. Reward Ideas
     Digital Copy - $10
     “Special Edition” Digital Copy - $25
     Making Of Content
     Soundtrack
     Name in Credits / Character in Game
     Swag: T-Shirts, Stickers, Posters, Merch
     $10,000 – Suit of Real Armor
    

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39. Cost Breakdown - Rewards
     Include reward costs in goal!
     Calculate worst case:
    RC / RL x Goal = WC
    $25 / $50 x $1000 = $500
     Consider reward limits
     You will ship late
    

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40. Cost Breakdown
     The Banner Saga - $720k
     10% - Kickstarter, Amazon, Failed Charges
     $22K - Prizes
     $22K - Shipping ($10 Intl. not enough)
     Taxes - can be income but…
     No Taxes until the game ships!
    http://www.guenthertax.com/blog/2012/05/no-kickstarter-
    project-should-pay-income-tax-in-their-first-year/
    

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41. Pre Launch - Raising Awareness
     Social Networks
     Friends and Family
     Your Mailing List
     News Sites
     Bloggers
     Forums
    

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42. Post Launch – Content Updates
     Stretch Goals(?)
     Post Project Coverage
     Respond to Questions
     Reddit AMA
     Twitch.tv
     Non-stop Self Promotion
    

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43. Yay – You Made It!
     Plan Regular Updates to Backers
     Ship Physical Rewards Quickly
     Only One Survey On Kickstarter
     Point Backers to Steam Greenlight
     Setup Pre-Order Page for Late Comers
     The Double Dip?
    

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44. Oh No, Project Failed
     Figure out what went wrong
     “Programmer Art”?
     Not enough gameplay shown?
     Bad pitch video?
     Goal or Reward too high?
     Try again!
    

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45. Michael C. Neel
    Michael.neel@gmail.com
    Vinull.com
    @ViNull
    GameMarx.com
    FuncWorks.com
    

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