Secondary Cities in Low-Income Asia: Demography and Risk

Transcript

1. Secondary Cities in Low-Income Asia: Demography and Risk Mark R. Montgomery Stony Brook University and Population Council, NY mark.montgomery@stonybrook.edu June 14, 2016 Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 1 / 23
2. 1 Urban Demography of Low- and Middle-Income Asia 2 Smaller Cities and Environmental Risks: India 3 Conclusions Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 2 / 23
3. Urban Challenges in the 21st Century: Urbanization in Poor Countries Large increases in world population lie ahead; almost all growth to occur in the cities and towns of poor countries. Today’s urban dwellers, and those of the future, will live mainly in small and medium-sized cities. Some small municipalities are located in large urban agglomerations; others are disconnected from national networks and economic growth. Decentralization National governments transferring responsibilities into hands of state and municipal governments, which typically lack resources and all manner of bureaucratic expertise. Extreme-event risks As global warming takes hold, the consequences (floods, droughts) will be borne by city and town dwellers as well as rural villagers. Yet national climate adaptation plans typically ignore urban areas of all sizes and the urban poor. Sustainable Development Goals and the Sendai Framework How will urban progress be measured and monitored—especially outside capitals and large cities? Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 3 / 23
4. New National Governmental Systems: Decentralization National governments are passing to lower-level tiers of government important functions, responsibilities, and (sometimes) revenue-raising authority and inter-governmental transfers. Powerful notion of moving government “closer to the people,” in theory improving responsiveness Municipal and “state” governments increasingly important in setting policies and programs — but often poorly resourced and under-staffed Small and intermediate-size cities: thinner revenue bases, less ability to impose growth-elastic taxes, more dependent on transfers Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 4 / 23
5. Data and Governance in Poor Countries Almost all poor countries collect spatially-specific population and socioeconomic data via population censuses. But few poor countries systematically analyze and distribute spatially-specific data to their local governments and civil society Smaller-city governments especially handicapped by the lack of basic data for planning and at-risk estimation Latin American countries the prominent exception: Detailed, easily accessible data seen as essential to good governance. Mexico, Brazil, Uruguay and other examples. This view gaining adherents: India after its 2011 census making major efforts to put settlement-specific data on the web—as we will illustrate. Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 5 / 23
6. Discussion Draws From: Panel on Urban Population Dynamics, U.S. National Research Council, Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2003 and from on-going NSF-funded research with Deborah Balk, Bryan O’Neill, Bryan Jones, Leiwen Jiang and others comparing urbanization in Mexico, India, and the United States. Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 6 / 23
7. Urban Demography of Low- and Middle-Income Asia
8. Urban Demography of Low- and Middle-Income Asia The Urban Evidence Base Too dependent on the UN and national-level statistics The Sustainable Development Goals will be monitored sub-nationally Environmental and climate risks vary enormously within countries But settlement-specific data on populations at risk seldom made available in any accessible form The demographic basics—fertility, mortality, health, age structure, education—are not available or not tabulated at the level of cities, to say nothing of neighborhoods within cities But census data exist at these levels—they have been left unexploited in the vast majority of poor countries. Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 8 / 23
9. Urban Demography of Low- and Middle-Income Asia Agglomerations of 300,000+ Population in Developing Asia UN Population Division (2014), population given in thousands Agglomerations of 300,000+ in 2015 q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q 300 500 1000 2500 5000 10000 15000 Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 9 / 23
10. Urban Demography of Low- and Middle-Income Asia Asian Urban Population by Agglomeration Size: Smaller Places Matter! 11.90% 9.15% 21.20% 10.16% 6.24% 41.37% 25 50 75 0/100 Agglomeration Size >10m 5-10m 1-5m 500k-1m 300k-500k <300k Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 10 / 23
11. Urban Demography of Low- and Middle-Income Asia UN Projections Sensible? How to Interpret the Meaning of “Agglomeration”? Central Asia Eastern Asia South-Eastern Asia Southern Asia Western Asia 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 1950 1975 2000 2030 1950 1975 2000 2030 Year Percentage of Total Urban Population Agglomeration Size <300k 300k-500k 500k-1m 1-5m 5-10m >10m Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 11 / 23
12. Urban Demography of Low- and Middle-Income Asia Smaller Cities and Towns Near Jakarta Night-time lights imagery—proxy for urban land cover/economic activity Longitude Latitude 7°S 6.5°S 6°S 106°E 106.5°E 107°E 107.5°E 95 96 97 98 99 99.5 100 Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 12 / 23
13. Urban Demography of Low- and Middle-Income Asia Large and Small Cities in Punjab Province, Pakistan Night-time lights and Google Earth geo-locating—and NSO population counts Longitude Latitude 28°N 29°N 30°N 31°N 32°N 33°N 70°E 71°E 72°E 73°E 74°E 75°E q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q 95 96 97 98 99 99.5 100 Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 13 / 23
14. Smaller Cities and Environmental Risks: India
15. Smaller Cities and Environmental Risks: India Number of Urban Places, by City/Town Population Size Settlement-level population data, all municipalities and census towns! 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2600 2800 3000 3200 4600 4800 5 Mill.+ 0 2000 4000 6000 Number of Cities and Towns (2011) City Size Class (000s) Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 15 / 23
16. Smaller Cities and Environmental Risks: India Distribution of Population, by City Size 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2600 2800 3000 3200 4600 4800 5 Mill.+ 0 30000 60000 90000 Total Population in Size Class (000s) City Size Class(000s) Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 16 / 23
17. Smaller Cities and Environmental Risks: India Number of Children under 6, by City/Town Size 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2600 2800 3000 3200 4600 4800 5 Mill.+ 0 5000 10000 Number of Children Under 6 (000s) City Size Class (000s) Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 17 / 23
18. Smaller Cities and Environmental Risks: India Number of Illiterate Women, by City/Town Size 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2600 2800 3000 3200 4600 4800 5 Mill.+ 0 5000 10000 15000 Number of Illiterate Women (000s) City Size Class (000s) Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 18 / 23
19. Smaller Cities and Environmental Risks: India Tamil Nadu: Big Cities Only Chennai Salem(M.Corp) Coimbatore (M Corp)(Part) Tiruchirappalli(M.Corp)(Part) Madurai(M Corp) Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 19 / 23
20. Smaller Cities and Environmental Risks: India Tamil Nadu: All Urban Settlements by Population Size 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 100-500K 500K+ Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 20 / 23
21. Smaller Cities and Environmental Risks: India Urban Dwellers at Risk: Low-Elevation Coastal Zone 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 100-500K 500K+ Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 21 / 23
22. Smaller Cities and Environmental Risks: India Cyclone Risks: Urban Settlements in the Pathway 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 22 / 23
23. Conclusions Conclusions: To Highlight Smaller Cities and Towns, Emphasize the Powerful SDG theme of “Inclusive Development” Help to disaggregate and map population census and related data, to highlight status of small urban places. Technical barriers can be overcome, with international assistance Focus attention on the environmental risks settlements are facing across the size spectrum Where possible, disaggregate socioeconomic data within cities Use satellite imagery—night-time lights, LandSat, new sensors—to monitor change in urban landcover between population censuses Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 23 / 23